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NFL Moneyline Betting
This is the outright bet on a match and the simplest bet you can place. With draws a serious rarity in NFL, the moneyline bet will focus on either the home or away win, though with draws still a slight possibility it’s good to back your side including overtime.
Team analysis is imperative for these kinds of bets, which include: Team form, injuries, days since last game and record with over/under x amount of days rest, game conditions/stadiums and statistical comparison of styles (e.g. rush offense vs run defence).
For example, the Vikings are much better when playing in domes and can struggle when playing in outdoor setting.
Once you’ve gathered all the information and can factor in nuggets of knowledge like the that, you’ll have a much greater understanding of where the value lies both on the moneyline and the spread.
The Vikings Play Under A Dome
NFL Spread Betting
The Spread is also often referred to as the handicap line in other sports. This attempts to level the playing field by giving the underdog a starting points advantage over the favourite.
Home teams undoubtedly have an advantage, and factors like this will be considered in the line. It’s for you to determine where the value lies based on the above analysis. What’s also worth considering is whether or not teams tend to take their foot off the pedal if they’re in a comfortable lead.
In order to wind down the clock the leading side will often choose to block the big plays and let the opposition work the ball upfield and sacrifice an easy score for a quick score, which can often play a huge factor on where value lies on the spread.
NFL Total Points Betting
This market looks at the combined total points for both sides which has tended to be between 30 to 60 points historically. In this instance, it’s good to look at the teams’ defensive and offensive record and to cross-reference that with playing style.
For instance, last season Jameis Winston lead the league in passing yards for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the regular season, making them one of the most prolific pass offense sides in the league and averaging 28.6 points per game.
The Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, were undoubtedly the best rushing side in the league and were also the most prolific scorers with an average of 33.2 points scored per game throughout the year, which rose to 36.5 when strictly looking at games on the road.
Despite being in separate conferences, a rare meeting between the two would surely see a touchdown fest, and the total points market would be well worth a look at in a game like that.
NFL Player Betting
Player betting is becoming increasingly popular in the NFL due to the increase in the number of individual statistics available. The most common of these bets is the first and last touchdown markets, which tend to be led by running backs and wide receivers, though in good rush offense sides you’d likely see the quarter back near the top of the market too.
For example, the Buffalo Bills had the eighth most rushing yards in the league last year, equating to 13 touchdowns, nine of which were scored by QB Josh Allen. This market can toss up some good value if you have a good understanding of a side’s tactical prowess, though a bit of research can also go a long way.
Player Betting Is One Of The More Popular Markets
NFL Parlays And Teasers Betting
A Parlay is a multiple bet and is the exact same concept as an accumulator. These bets can be placed across multiple markets in a single match or across multiple matches. All results must come in for your bet to win and are best used in a match where you’re struggling to find value and the combination of a moneyline, total points and first touchdown (for example) seems like the most profitable option.
A popular form of Parlay bet is a teaser, where the bettor can adjust the points on individual bets, like changing the spread to accommodate their analysis, though the odds will react to the change.
Conclusion
Although the sports differ completely, there are many similarities to betting on American Football and betting on soccer. The markets on offer remain extremely similar and although tactically there’s very little comparison between the two, conceptually betting remains relatively consistent.
Understanding the differences between passing and rush offenses can be achieved through minor research, and this will give a greater understanding of where to find value in the betting markets.
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