10 Dec 2019
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A derby defeat at the Etihad has left Man City in limbo domestically, with the 14-point gap to leaders Liverpool seemingly insurmountable and Pep Guardiola’s side too good not to occupy a Champions League place come the end of the season.
Having won just two of their last seven outings in all competitions now, their hosts Zagreb will fancy their chances of an upset.
Whereas the visitors have nothing to play for having already won the group, the other three sides are all in contention to join them in the knockouts.
Zagreb are tightly sandwiched between Shakhtar and Atalanta, and while nothing other than a win and Shakhtar dropping points at home to Atalanta will be enough for them, a point and the Ukrainians avoiding defeat will at least qualify them for the Europa League knockouts.
Man City are certainly prone to the odd wobble in Europe and have drawn 1-1 in their last two matches away to Atalanta and at home to Shakhtar.
However, this encounter may not end up being so low scoring given that 21 of City’s previous 25 Champions League matches saw at least three goals, while Zagreb have produced a 4-0 win over Atalanta and a 3-3 stalemate with Shakhtar in their home games to date.
Zagreb And Manchester City To Draw
With that in mind, we quite fancy the Croatian sides’ prospects of registering a goal. Man City’s defensive issues have been thoroughly exposed in the absence of key centre-back Aymeric Laporte, and both teams have now scored in each of Man City’s last nine outings.
However, that market has unappealing odds attached to it and better value is to be found elsewhere.
Without Laporte, Guardiola has preferred midfield enforcer Fernandinho as his main option ahead of specialists John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi at the back, but the Brazilian is suspended here, while Stones also came off with a knock at the weekend and so surely won’t be risked in what is to City a dead rubber game.
Sergio Aguero will also miss out as he works on a return to fitness, so City aren’t going to have their strongest team on the pitch. Given Man City are struggling to win games at the moment, the draw is certainly of interest at the prices.
Their only defeats in 18 matches since their collapse against Norwich back in September have come at the hands of quality outfits Wolves, Liverpool and city rivals United, so the draw offers far better value than backing the hosts on the double chance.
Zagreb And Manchester City To Draw At 3/1
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