19 May 2020
Recent Form
The perfect start for Dortmund following the Covid-19 break saw them down their local rivals Schalke 4-0 in the Revierderby. That result keeps them within four points of league leaders Bayern at the head of the table and they’ll certainly fancy their chances of a proper title race now. Their opponents for this Saturday find themselves ticking along nicely in sixth place though, as they too won their returning fixture.
A stoppage-time winner from Daniel Ginczek didn’t exactly make for the most comfortable of victories for Wolfsburg, but they did have to fare without their top marksmen Wout Weghorst, who served a suspension for receiving too many yellow cards. The game also took place on the road, though their form at the Volkswagen Arena is hardly spectacular anyway, going W4-D6-L3 from 13 matches this season, while they were level at the break in seven of the last 11.
Dortmund To Beat Wolfsburg
The Black and Yellows have been fairly ruthless wherever they’ve been playing, winning 11 of their last 14 outings, only losing to Hoffenheim and Leverkusen and settling for a stalemate with Leipzig. Both those defeats came by single-goal margins and away from the Westfalenstadion, but they did win their five other trips over this period and we’d also take confidence from their head-to-head record against their hosts.
Dortmund have won eight of nine unbeaten outings against the Wolves since start of the 2015/16 campaign, including wins to nil in five of the last six as half of them finished 3-0. In fact, add Bayern into the mix and they’ve lost all eight matches at this stadium during this time, and this could well be another one to add to that list.
The arrival of Erling Haaland has been immense for the visitors, as they’ve now won eight of their last nine matches, with him scoring in all but three. 10 goals across those matches is some achievement, while he also has three assists to his name and they’ll be hoping their front man doesn’t get injured.
Over 2.5 Goals
Lucien Favre’s men may only be W4-D1-L2 from their seven outings against the top six this term, but considering Wolfsburg sit eight points adrift of fifth-placed Leverkusen, we’d prefer not include them in that elite bracket. Excluding those top sides, BVB have now won seven games on the bounce as five saw a minimum of four strikes and given they’ve kept a clean sheet in the last five, it seems the return of Mats Hummels is really coming to the fore.
Wolfsburg have seen some entertaining encounters in recent times though. Seven of their last nine have featured more than two goals as they themselves scored in all but one of these, so we’d rather avoid the win to nil market and stick with a punt on it being a high-scoring encounter.
