20 Nov 2019
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Wilder v Ortiz II
Deontay Wilder defends his WBC heavyweight title for the 10th time against Cuban, Luis Ortiz, in a rematch of their thrilling 2018 encounter.
Wilder won that one in the 10th round after emerging from a crisis that threatened his unbeaten record and world championship.
The rematch, which takes place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, and is optimistically scheduled for 12 rounds, was not ordered by any sanctioning body. It’s a risky move from Wilder to revisit the scene of one his hardest fights, particularly when he didn’t have to.
That it takes place speaks to a few things. Firstly, it says a lot for Wilder’s fearlessness and his desire to clear up any grey areas on a record dominated by knockouts of the clean, conclusive variety.
Secondly, it says a lot for the WBC heavyweight champion’s reluctance to go down the same path of Tyson Fury as he waits to rematch the “Gypsy King” at some point in 2020.
Instead of killing time against soft touches, Wilder seems happy to risk everything he has, and all he could get, to go over old ground in what could amount to a hiding to nothing.
After all, should he stop Ortiz again Wilder will merely be repeating a trick he performed in March 2018. Lose, though, and everything goes up in smoke.
What Happened Last Time?
This sequel is a testament to the self-belief the Alabama native possesses. That and his punch power, of course, which, in terms of getting out of jail, is every bit as effective as a Rita Hayworth poster on the wall.
Jail last time looked like this: Ortiz did everything right for half of the fight and managed to shine a light on everything Wilder does wrong.
Steady, well-balanced and composed, the challenger claimed the centre of ring, refused to relinquish it, and went about breaking Wilder up with jabs, body shots and skilled footwork. He cut the ring off when it needed cutting off.
He punched when it was time to punch. He covered up when he saw the muscles in Wilder’s chest contract and sensed a punch was about to be uncoiled. Essentially, Ortiz, the thinking man’s heavyweight, was in control.
His feet were better, his shots straighter, and stabbing jabs and crosses to Wilder’s torso had the champion beating his chest in frustration because it was all he could hit clean.
By the seventh round, as Wilder moved less and traded more, Ortiz was landing at will and appeared seconds away from stopping a champion whose eyes were now the size of Olympic pools.
More than just there, Wilder was there and firing, his faith placed in an ability to turn things around with just one punch.
A solid investment, soon the mere threat of Wilder connecting flush on an exposed chin had Ortiz cautious of going for the finish, then tired, then eager to return to the calm, measured fight of before.
A fast-paced shootout was something new to Ortiz, at odds with his style and mentality, but now he was stuck in one with no escape plan.
Wilder, in stark contrast, is more alive in a shootout – certainly more dangerous – than he is in anything resembling a boxing match. For it is in a shootout he can do away with any pretence of style or technique and simply pit his power and heart against the power and heart of his opponent.
If stripped back like this, few can match Wilder, a truth hammed home to Ortiz when stopped in the 10th round.
Wilder v Ortiz II Betting Tips
While Ortiz should not be written off entirely, we must look at his age when examining the potential outcome.
Officially 40, though it’s something of a running joke in the boxing industry that Ortiz is actually even older. Whatever he may tell you, the bottom line remains that he is not getting any better. His peak is behind him.
Even last December, when he halted Travis Kauffman in the 10th round, he looked like he had slowed down considerably since the first fight with Wilder. A subsequent win over Christian Hammer did little to shake that feeling.
Wilder, meanwhile, is likely in the thick of his best years. Throw in the fact he stood up to the best of Ortiz 18 months ago and was still able to deliver his own punches to finish the fight will provide a significant mental advantage.
But Ortiz is talented and canny. Expect him to cause problems again. It’s likely that both fighters will go for an early finish. Wilder should be favoured to win and win quicker than he did last time. Anything from rounds five to eight would be our favourite bet.
Keep an eye on any boosts, too. Wilder in the opening three rounds isn’t the craziest pick. And if you fancy the upset, Ortiz’s price is likely to be inviting. He still has the power to knock out his American opponent if the opportunity arises.
But if you’re planning on betting a lot of cash, keep it simple and bet on the fight ending inside schedule. There’s no such thing as a certainty in boxing but one of these two heavyweights getting stopped is pretty close.
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