30 Oct 2019
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Semi-Final Heartbreak
After defeats to South Africa and England respectively, Wales and New Zealand find themselves in the unenviable situation of having to play a third-place playoff fighting for nothing but pride, and third place.
The Welsh came out the wrong end of a scrappy display against the Boks, while England put on one of their best ever performances to down an All Blacks side who had won their previous 18 World Cup matches, the longest run in the competition’s history.
This matchup, however, will have a touch more sentimental value than previous editions, as both Warren Gatland and Steve Hansen will be leaving their post in charge of these two nations after this match, so both sides will be giving their all to give their coaches a fond farewell.
Wales +19 Handicap
The handicap line looks a tad high when considering the Kiwi’s record against the British & Irish Lions nations - Ireland, England, Scotland & Wales.
They’ve only covered this 19-point line on three occasions in their last 20 such tests since December 2012, while Wales have been notorious for keeping tight defensively, conceding more than 20 points on only four occasions from their last 24 clashes.
Hansen’s men struggled to find a way through against an admittedly resolute England defence with their only try not coming from any of their own doing, so Wales will be confident they can keep their total to a minimum, while the likes of Rhys Patchell and Leigh Halfpenny will fancy their chances from anywhere within 50 meters, so they’ll aim to keep their end of the scoreboard ticking over and we like the look of them to cover the handicap.
Total Points Under 51.5
With that in mind, we also like the look of the total points market. Only one of the previous eight bronze medal matches have seen the 51.5 point line covered, and only just as the Kiwis put the French to the sword 40-13 in 2003, while the average points in this match over the years is just 37.9, so with the idea that Wales will try and nullify the All Black’s attack, ‘Unders’ looks the most appealing option.
Total Points Under 51.5 At 19/20
0.5 Pts: Wales +19 Handicap At 10/11
WALES V ALL BLACKS TEAMS
Wales: 15 Hallam Amos, 14 Owen Lane, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Josh Adams. 10 Rhys Patchell, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 James Davies, 6 Justin Tipuric, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (captain), 4 Adam Beard, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Nicky Smith.
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Wyn Jones, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Aaron Shingler, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Dan Biggar, 23 Hadleigh Parkes.
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Atu Moli, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Matt Todd, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Jordie Barrett
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