21 Nov 2019
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Both of these sides can count themselves unlucky that their position in the table doesn’t quite reflect the performances they’ve been putting in.
The Magpies faced a difficult start to the season in terms of fixtures, playing each of the ‘Big Six’ except Man City, while they’ve also faced top-half outfits Leicester, Wolves and Bournemouth across their opening 12 games.
Considering that, as well as the toxic atmosphere brewing when he took charge of the club back in July, Steve Bruce must be delighted that his side sit a full seven points above the drop zone and on the same number as Burnley in 10th, while they’re just two points adrift of Sheffield Utd in fifth.
After a difficult start to the season where results just weren’t swinging Villa’s way, they had a mini recovery between September and October as they won three of four unbeaten matches across all tournaments.
They may have lost three and won once in their subsequent four outings, but these have been tough fixtures as they’ve played Man City and Liverpool, as well as Wolves twice.
Jurgen Klopp’s side even required a late brace with their 2-1 comeback kicking off in the 87th minute, while Villa’s 3-0 defeat at the Etihad remains the only time they’ve lost by more than a single strike since the opening day, when two similarly late Harry Kane goals denied them a point.
Newcastle hold a surprisingly good record away at bottom-six sides at the time of playing, as their defeat at Carrow road in Bruce’s second game in charge is their only loss across their last 11 such fixtures.
Although 10 of those games came under Rafa Benitez, victories over the Hammers and Bournemouth just prior to the international break will have injected some confidence. However, with both sides holding some credibility here, the outright market offers up little value.
Over 2.5 Goals
Only the bottom three sides possess a worse defence than the hosts here and considering two of them have been on the end of eight and nine-goal drubbings, that’s not exactly surprising.
However, the only bottom half side that boast a better output than the Villans is Spurs, so it’s inevitable that they’ve seen a minimum of three goals in each of their last nine games in all competitions (both League Cup fixtures came against Premier League opposition too).
The Toon army have seen the same outcome in their last two fixtures since coming out of their difficult opening fixture list. They’ve also seen a minimum of four goals in three of their last four away games, with the only exception coming away at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea have now kept three consecutive clean sheets, so the ‘Overs’ market appeals here.
Allan Saint-Maximin To Score Anytime
Bruce is a stickler for old fashioned route one football, with only Burnley attempting fewer short passes per game in the league this season.
A result of this is the amount of chances summer signing Allan Saint-Maximin is getting. The winger’s pace allows him to easily get in behind the defence, resulting in him having four clear cut one-on-one opportunities in the last two games, and at the prices we’re happy to have a punt on him putting away his first goal for his new club.
Allan Saint-Maximin To Score Anytime At 4/1
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