12 Nov 2019
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Following a barren spell in terms of success over the past decade or so, Turkey have emerged as surprise leaders in Group H having taken four points off World Cup winners France.
That means that victories here over Iceland and then away to Andorra on the final day will guarantee top spot in the group for Senol Gunes’ charges, owing to that superior head-to-head record with Les Bleus.
Iceland have enjoyed themselves more in recent times compared to the Turks, reaching the quarter-finals of Euro 2016 as they knocked out England along the way, before then making it to the World Cup in 2018, where they managed a draw with Argentina in the group stages.
However, they still finished bottom of a pool also containing Croatia and Nigeria, while they were fortunate that their hardest opponents in qualification for that tournament were Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey themselves.
With Turkey’s sole defeat in the current campaign coming in Reykjavik, that means Iceland have now won three on the bounce against them now since 2016.
However, things were much closer the last time they met, and with Turkey impressing on home turf (they’ve won each of their last six such matches) they appear more than capable of reversing their fortunes in the head-to-heads.
Turkey To Win
Most of Iceland’s best results have come in Reykjavik. Five of their seven wins during qualification for the World Cup came in front of their own fans, as have four of their five victories in the current campaign, but away from home the picture isn’t quite so pretty.
They’ve now gone a poor W1-D5-L8 at away or neutral venues since March 2018, with that sole victory coming over minnows Andorra.
Iceland are also hindered by the absence of some experience in midfield, with captain Aron Gunnarsson and Burnley winger Johann Berg Gudmundsson both out injured. Between them, the pair can boast 162 caps, while their record without those two is significantly weaker.
Whereas Iceland have won four of their last six matches with Gunnarsson in the team, they’ve gone W1-D5-L6 without him since March 2018. In the absence of Gudmundsson, they’ve gone W2-D3-L6 since June 2018.
Turkey have their own missing man in the shape of Roma’s Cengiz Under, though the wide man hasn’t been as crucial to his country as those Iceland midfielders. 22-year-old Under has a promising six goals from 19 caps, but he’s missed eight of Turkey’s 10 matches in 2019 so far through injury.
However, the Crescent Stars have won six of those eight matches in any case, as one of the exceptions was the draw in Paris last month.
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