12 Jun 2019
And so it comes down to this. After 255 games, this is the one that matters. Super Bowl 53 sees the old guard against the new. The New England Patriots are playing in their fifth Super Bowl in 10 years and their third in succession. As in their last four trips, they head to Atlanta as favourite.
We preview the big game, offering key stats, trends and all the odds.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
If Sunday’s game is half-way as good as the Conference Championships, we won’t complain. Both games went to overtime and both saw controversial officiating calls that could easily have seen New Orleans facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, instead of the Patriots and Rams.
The Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in the Superdome thanks to a monumental pass-interference no-call by officials, while the Patriots benefitted from an oh-so-late official’s flag, which saw Dee Ford penalised for being offside at the line of scrimmage, negating a Tom Brady interception that would have won the game for the Chiefs.
As it was, the Patriots won a coin toss in overtime, received the ball and marched down the field to win on Rex Burkhead’s short-yardage lunge into the end zone for a 37-31 road win.
This set up a repeat of the February 2003 Super Bowl which the Patriots won 20-17, and started their dynasty. Since then, they have won four more rings, although they were beaten last season in Super Bowl LII by the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Patriots have beaten the Rams in their last five meetings, including Super Bowl XXXVI played in New Orleans.
New England got off to a great start against Kansas City, with their offensive line showing up the glaring weakness the Chiefs have had all season – their run defense. In truth, the Chiefs’ 27th-ranked run defense (132.1 yards per game) is not much different to the Rams’ 23rd-ranked run defense (122.3ypg).
The biggest difference is the Rams can generate pressure up front with Aaron Donald leading the league in QB sacks with 20.5. New England will be forced to double-team Donald, which means Ndamukong Suh will be a force inside, getting pressure in Brady’s face. This is the best defensive line Brady has faced, yet many forget that he gets rid of the ball so quickly, negating any pressure. In any case, the Rams will first have to try and shut down the Patriots’ running game.
However, should they manage to collapse the pocket, there have been times when Brady has over-thrown his receivers and the Rams were third in the league in takeaways.
Brady, who is 5-3 in Super Bowls, has a vast experience edge. Now 41, when he was playing for his first Vince Lombardi Trophy, current running back Sony Michel was aged six, tight end Rob Gronkowski was 11 and receiver Julian Edelman was 15.
Brady will overtake Peyton Manning as the oldest quarterback to win a Super Bowl if he guides the Patriots to victory over the Rams. And this week he reiterated that he still wants to play until he’s 45, saying there was “zero chance” he would quit after the Super Bowl.
Where the Rams’ defense differs from Kansas City’s is their pass defense, which gives up a middling 236.2 yards per game (14th) compared to the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked unit (273.4ypg).
If the Rams have to stop the run, the same goes for the Patriots, who must deal with the third-ranked rushing attack (139.4ypg).
Rams’ QB Jared Goff is just 24, but he delivered a game-winning drive when it mattered in the hostile and loud Superdome, and in Greg Zuerlein, who nailed a 57-yard field goal to reach the Super Bowl, the Rams have arguably the best kicker in the NFL. He has been suffering a foot strain on his planting foot, but should be fit to play.
The Patriots’ secondary is far from elite – they ranked 11th in yards conceded through the air –and if given time, Goff will be able to keep the chains moving. Former Patriots’ receiver Brandin Cooks will cause match-up problems and expect tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett to play a pivotal role too.
Patriots, whose five losses this season all came on the road at Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, Miami and Pittsburgh, were 7/1 shots at the start of the season, but are 4/6 to beat the Rams, who are 23/20 on the Genting Casino NFL moneyline.
If the Rams are to win, they must get running back Todd Gurley involved. He has been suffering from a knee injury and the burly C.J. Anderson, who has been excellent in relief, will get the tough yards when needed. They provide a nice change of pace.
If Los Angeles can establish the run, they might be the value in receipt of 2.5 points on the handicap at 17/20, but given New England’s slow starts in their last two appearances in Super Bowls, the Rams in receipt of 0.5 points to take a half-time lead is tempting at 4/5.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Todd Gurley would seem an obvious choice and the odds of 8/13 would suggest that he is expecting to bounce back from what he considered to be a “sorry” display against the Saints, where he had four attempts and gained just 10 yards.
However, one of those was a six-yard rushing touchdown. He also scored against Dallas in the Divisional round and he has scored at least once in 11 of the 16 games he has played this season.
Likewise, it is rare that New England receiver Julian Edelman is kept out of the end zone for any length of time. The fact that only once this season has he gone three games without a score suggests that Brady will give him plenty of targets to get a first score in the post-season. He could be a bit of value at Evens.
Both QBs are priced at 10/1 to score and when you have a man-mountain like left tackle Andrew Whitworth able to get to the second level, Goff may well attempt to follow his blocker at some point and while considered a classic pocket passer, he does have the ability to keep the chains moving with his feet.
OVER/UNDER POINTS TOTAL
It seems pretty astonishing that the points total has been set at what looks a lofty number at 56 points, which is the highest line since the Patriots and Falcons met two years ago. While that number was covered thanks to an astonishing comeback by the Patriots, both teams will be keen to establish the run and therefore long, time-consuming drives might make the Overs bettors a little nervous.
With both offenses ranking in the top five in points scored this season, it is understandable that layers have set the bar so high and it is 17/20 that the total will go over 56 points.
There are alternative points totals to consider. For instance, it is 13/10 that there will be over 59.5 total points scored and it is 2/1 that the teams will combine for less than 48.5 total points.
New England covered the line on seven of their 18 games this season, while games involving the Rams saw the total eclipsed on nine occasions.
Take a look at the plethora of other Super Bowl LIII markets by clicking here.
Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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