8 Jul 2022
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First Test Result
The first test between the two sides resulted in a game with two polar opposite halves, going into the break Wales were up 18-3, thanks to a converted and non-converted try from Louis Rees-Zammit, a penalty and drop goal all taken by Dan Biggar.
The second half wasn’t to be for the Red Dragons as they conceded 29 points and only scored 11, mainly due to the lack of discipline shown by the Welsh side. They had three yellow cards in the 2nd half alone and four in the match in total. Wales conceded 17 points whilst having 14 men or less and they would have come out victorious if they showed some experience when the situation gets tricky.
Thanks to the game being far closer than expected the odds on Wales doing well (either via result or handicap) have shortened and vice-versa for South Africa. This gives us ample opportunity for a winning bet.
When the Springboks play on home soil, their record stands at W38-D2-L13 since the start of 2010. This gives the South Africans a win percentage of 72% and although this is impressive, it is not the most accurate depiction of what the Springboks can do at the moment. They are widely considered the best team in the world at the moment and it will take an almost impossible amount of determination and skill for Wales to beat them.
Wales +11 Handicap
Wales have only made one change from the XV that played last week, Alex Cuthbert coming in to replace Josh Adams who had struggled to get back into the rhythm of the game after missing three months due to a knee injury. Sam Wainwright comes into the squad to replace the injured Tom Francis which could result in a debut for Saracens prop.
The Springboks have made 14 changes to the side that beat Wales last Saturday, Handre Pollard was left out of the side last week but comes into the side and will take over the captaincy role from Siya Kolisi.
The only player to retain his position is lock Eben Etzebeth. Kurt-Lee Arendse and Evan Roos are the only two starters making their debuts but there is a chance for Ntuthuko Mchunu, Deon Fourie, Ruan Nortje and Grant Williams to get their debut game from the bench.
The fact that Wales are still playing their strongest team possible whilst the Springboks are clearly trying something new with the number of changes they have made we believe a Wales handicap is the best way to go.
WALES +11 HANDICAP
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