23 Jul 2021
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Lions 2nd Half Comeback
A monumental comeback from the British and Irish Lions saw them overcome a nine-point deficit at the break to take the opening Test 22-17. It was ill-discipline in the first half that cost the visitors, but eventually the South Africans tired and began to lose the aerial battle in the second half.
It showed the strength in depth that the Lions have off the bench as they ground Jacques Nienaber’s men down in the second half.
Star performances from England internationals Courtney Lawes and Maro Itoje helped Warren Gatland’s men fight back, and they’ll be confident heading into the second Test with just three changes being made to the starting team.
Mako Vunipola starts at loosehead after his impressive impact from the bench, with Rory Sutherland waiting in the wings to come on, Chris Harris moves Elliot Daly to the bench and Conor Murray starts ahead of Ali Price.
Boks Ill-Discipline
South Africa will feel a little hard done with them being denied three try-scoring opportunities. Penalties and turnovers were their downfall, with a combined 28 being seen against them.
Interestingly, only twice have they won since 2016 when having 27 or more in a game, beating Namibia in 2019 and France in 2018, as they lost all the other 10 such matches.
Only three times previously have the Lions won the opening Test since 1997 from their six tours over that period, going on in the second Test to beat South Africa by three points in 1997 and losing to Australia by 21 and one point margins in 2001 and 2013 respectively.
We wouldn’t look into that too much considering the small sample of fixtures we have to go off, but it’s worth considering at the very least.
Either Team By Less Than 7.5 Points
Gatland’s side will look stronger this time around, with Murray showing his quality off the bench and now with Elliot Daly on the bench one of the star men from the warm-up games, Chris Harris, can show his quality.
Furthermore, the presence of Taulupe Faletau on the bench will provide the much needed go forward when called upon in the second half.
The first match of the series was decided by five points and we’d expect this to be yet another close encounter.
60% of the opening two Tests on British and Irish Lions tours since the points for a try changed from four to five points back in 1992 have seen fewer than six points separate the teams, and with this being another flip of a coin, that’s the bet we’ll get behind.
Key Stat:
- Only twice have the Lions managed to win the opening two Tests of a tour since 1974, both coming against South Africa (1974 & 1997).
Either Team By Less Than 7.5 Points At Evs
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Springboks v Lions Teams
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Trevor Nyakane 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Lodewyk de Jager, 20 Marco Van Staden, 21 Albertus Smith, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Damian Willemse.
British and Irish Lions: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (captain), 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Mako Vunipola.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Tadhg Beirne, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Ali Price, 22 Owen Farrell, 23 Elliot Daly.
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