13 Feb 2020
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After a seriously rocky start to the season Ralph Hasenhuttl has got his side ticking. Their opening 13 matches yielded just two victories and eight defeats, but they’ve won seven of their subsequent 12, including victories over Chelsea, Spurs, and Leicester.
They let a two-goal half-time lead slip when hosting Wolves in the middle of January, while a recent defeat to Liverpool can be excused.
Sean Dyche’s men are coming into some form of their own. Having lost four consecutive matches after Christmas, they’ve now beaten both Leicester and Man United before playing out a goalless stalemate with Arsenal.
The Clarets are looking more Sean Dyche-esque at the back having conceded just once across those matches and will be brimming with confidence heading into this one.
The situation is quite simple for both these sides. They have next to no chance of qualifying for a European position and their main priority will be not getting sucked down into a relegation battle.
The draw wouldn’t be disastrous for either side, though with Southampton still down in 13th place and playing on home soil, they’ll be the ones more likely to push for all three points.
However, the Saints have the worst home record in the league with just 11 points accumulated from 12 matches and they’ll be wary of that when contemplating committing men forward.
On that basis, we can’t see either side going hell for leather here and we’re inclined to back an ‘Unders’ outcome.
Under 2.5 Goals
There’s been a maximum of two goals in six of Burnley’s last nine outings, while there’s been no more than three in any of them.
Similarly, the Saints have seen ‘Unders’ in all but one of their last four at home, with the exception coming in that second half collapse against Wolves, so that looks to be where the value lies in this clash.
The case is further strengthened by the likely absence of midfielder James Ward-Prowse for Southampton. The 25-year-old has four goals in the league this season but his threat from set pieces can cause serious worry for defences.
A nasty knee injury meant he was carried off on a stretcher approaching half time in their FA Cup replay with Spurs, and he could be facing a few weeks on the side-line. A likely midfield duo of Oriol Romeu and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will remain solid, but will also lack the attacking prowess that the English midfielder offers.
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