18 Nov 2019
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Scotland are already assured of a place in the play-offs having won their Nations League group, but they’ll be out for revenge here having suffered an embarrassing 3-0 loss in Astana back in March.
That was the final nail in Alex McLeish’s coffin, with the 60-year-old being dismissed after that international break, but new man in the dugout Steve Clarke hasn’t exactly had it all his own way.
The former Killie boss has lost all four games against Belgium and Russia by a combined score of 13-1. However, he’s won his other three matches in charge, beating Cyprus 2-1 twice and San Marino 6-0 at Hampden Park.
With two victories on the bounce now, he’ll feel he’s starting to get to grips with his charges, while Kazakhstan haven’t been particularly impressive since the two sides last met.
The visitors are just W2-D1-L5 over their subsequent eight fixtures, with both victories coming over San Marino, who are Europe’s weakest side according to FIFA’s world rankings down at 209th.
Excluding San Marino, Latvia and Andorra who all reside below Michal Bilkek’s side in the world rankings, Kazakhstan have now lost a terrible 24 of 27 winless away matches in competitive fixtures since their attempts to reach the 2010 World Cup, including eight out of nine since the campaign for the 2018 edition of that tournament.
Given the Scots benefit from home advantage here, coupled with their visitors’ dreadful away record, they deserve to start as heavy favourites with the bookies.
However, the outright win doesn’t offer a great deal of value on its own and in order to eke out some, there are better ways to get the hosts onside instead.
Scotland -1 Handicap Draw
Excluding desperately weak outfits San Marino, Malta, Lithuania and Gibraltar, all of whom are below Kazakhstan in FIFA’s world rankings, Scotland have won by a one-goal margin in 14 of their 16 victories since November 2013.
An astonishing 11 of these finished 1-0, while nine saw them level at the break before going on to claim maximum points.
Draw/Scotland HT/FT
Given Kazakhstan have only trailed at the half-time whistle once in their last five outings (against Belgium), while excluding the Red Devils and San Marino they’ve gone in level at the break in each of their past five road trips, the half-time/full-time market is our preferred route.
Scotland are without Premier League quartet Andrew Robertson, Kieran Tierney, Scott McTominay and Ryan Fraser.
Scotland 1-0 Correct Score
However, the Tartan Army should still expect to see their team triumph, with Steve Clarke still able to call upon the likes of Celtic duo Ryan Christie and James Forrest for output, as well Aston Villa’s John McGinn and veteran Hearts striker Steven Naismith.
John McGinn To Score Anytime
McGinn has enjoyed a good season for both club and country to date. The midfielder has contributed three goals for his club side, but has really stood out for the national team with five goals from four starts since the start of September as he’s emerged as a key player.
At the prices, he looks worth getting behind to continue his hot streak in dark blue.
Scotland -1 Handicap Draw At 11/5
2pts: Draw/Scotland HT/FT At 14/5
0.5pts: Scotland 1-0 Correct Score At 17/4
0.5pts: John McGinn To Score Anytime At 5/2
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