18 Sept 2019
RUGBY WORLD CUP OUTRIGHT ODDS HERE!
Yet again New Zealand are hot favourites after they became the first nation to win back-to-back World Cups, as well as being the first to lift three separate titles (1987, 2011 & 2015). Trailing them in that regard are fellow Southern Hemisphere sides Australia (1991 & 1999) and South Africa (1995 & 2007) who have won two apiece, while England (2003) still remain the only side from the Northern Hemisphere to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.
The format will be the same as each of the last five World Cups. The 20 teams are separated into four pools of five teams and the top-two from each group will advance through to the knockout stages.
RWC POOL A
The hosts, Japan, couldn’t have asked for a better chance to qualify from their group if they tried. Both Samoa and Russia are miles off the pace, with the former losing 14 of their 18 matches since start of 2017 and putting them down to 16th in the World Rankings, while the latter only qualified thanks to point deductions, leaving just Scotland or Ireland as realistic challengers in Pool A. You can virtually give the world number one Irish outfit top spot already, but if you were to fancy yourself against any of the Band 2 sides (Scotland, France, South Africa & Wales) it’s the Scots that would take your fancy.
Gregor Townsend’s men may have reached at least the quarters in all but one of their eight World Cup attempts, but only three times before have they had to face two sides of notable quality in their pool. The first was in 2007 when they were hammered by the All Blacks 40-0 and just scraped past Italy 18-16, another in 2011 when Argentina and England both beat them, while the last in 2015 saw South Africa breezed past them before they scraped a 36-33 result against a resilient Samoan outfit.
Jamie Joseph’s men possess the home advantage and have come on leaps and bounds in recent years, winning the World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup in August and equalling their best ever ranking in the process. They’ll want to take advantage of Scotland’s woeful away form (W7-D1-L43 at either World Cup or Six nations) in what should be a straight shootout in the final game of the pool stages. However, that’ll inevitably be the end of the road for the victor with the winner of Pool B their quarter-final opponents.
RWC POOL B
Pool B is fairly straight forward to call with none of Italy, Namibia or Canada capable of competing against South Africa or New Zealand. If we were to price them up we’d have it a lot closer than the current 21/10 for the Boks to top the group seeing as they are unbeaten so far in 2019 and only a maximum of two points has separated the sides in each of their three head-to-heads (W1-D1-L1) since the start of 2018.
Rassie Erasmus’ men won and drew their two ties in New Zealand and now on neutral ground the value looks to be with them, but we’ll avoid having a punt on this with the Kiwis having won every one of their 14 matches in this competition since
2011.
JIM HAMILTON AND ANDY GOODE GIVE THEIR TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS
RWC POOL C
Due to there being 10 tier one nations, that therefore means two of the pools will consist of three sides from this section, with England landing the group of death for a second consecutive tournament. They failed to beat either Wales or Australia when hosting four years ago, but they look a much more astute side under Eddie Jones this year and France and Argentina are unlikely to worry them in Pool C. However, it’s finishing runner-up that could pave the way for an easier route as they face either the Aussies or Wales in the quarters, as well as avoiding Group B winners (likely to be the All Blacks) until the final.
Les Bleus always find a way to turn up on the biggest stage having finished runner up at this tournament a record three times, as they’ve never failed to make it out the group stages. However, excluding the Italians, only once have they been in a group with two other current tier one nations, back in 2007, when Argentina proceeded to beat them 17-12 at the Stade de France. What’s more, their record away from home is frankly terrible, going W2-D1-L29 to tier one sides (excluding Italy). The Pumas have an advantageous W10-L7 record against the French this century and look the value bet to make that 11 wins on the opening Saturday of the World Cup.
RWC POOL D
In Pool D, it looks to be another straight battle between the two tier one nations, Australia and Wales, even if the likes of Fiji could score a few points against them. The Welsh have made superb progress in Warren Gatland’s last year of managing them, earning a World number one ranking birth for a short period, as well as producing a 14-game winning streak between March 2018 and March 2019.
The Aussies beat the Kiwis in Perth recently, but were then humbled at Eden Park a week later 36-0. Although they have the ability to surprise a few, we’re struggling to see past the Welsh to top this group. That’ll mean a much easier path for the winner as both Argentina and France look below par at the minute, while a tussle with England should you finish second looks a game well worth avoiding.
Rugby World Cup Betting Tips
New Zealand are a margin shorter than they were four years ago, yet they look much more vulnerable this time around having been defeated by Ireland (twice), British & Irish Lions, Australia (twice) and South Africa since November 2016. They also look set for a gruelling last four clash with Eddie Jones’ men, who also should’ve beaten them last November if it wasn’t for a controversial TMO decision. Meanwhile, the Red Roses will likely have to overcome all of France, Argentina, (Wales or Australia) & (New Zealand or South Africa) just to make it into the final. Given no side has ever lifted the title having lost a match en route, it looks a tall order.
Away from those two aforementioned powerhouses, the likely bottom half of the draw appears the value route. We’re expecting that to be Wales against Argentina and Ireland versus South Africa. The Pumas have lost seven of eight head-to-heads against the Welsh since 2007, including each of the last four, while the Springboks won when Ireland came to town in 2016 and although the Boks lost the most recent clash at Aviva Stadium, that was during the height of Schmidt’s reign and that form has been hampered somewhat when finishing third at the 2019 Six Nations as well as a 57-15 humiliation at Twickenham a month ago.
It is at the semi-final stage that Wales have now been undone twice in their history. They’ve never advanced past it, so we can’t see them doing that over Erasmus’s men, or Ireland for that matter should an upset occur, having recently lost back-to-back fixtures in late August and early September with the world’s number one side. That makes it hard to look past South Africa to reach the final of the 2019 World Cup and they’ll more than likely be joined by the winner of New Zealand versus England.
Japan Stage of Elimination – Quarter Final at 5/2
Argentina Stage of Elimination – Quarter Final at 9/5
Name the Finalist – New Zealand & South Africa at 13/5
0.5Pts: Name the Finalist – England & South Africa at 10/1
BETTING PREVIEW AND TIPS FOR ALL OF THE TOP LEAGUES HERE!
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