12 Jun 2019
There is an early start to the Premier League weekend action as Southampton take on Liverpool on Friday evening at St Mary’s.
Southampton are still fighting to secure their top flight status and sit five points above third from bottom Cardiff. With Fulham relegated on Tuesday evening and Huddersfield already down, there is every chance that the Saints will find themselves secure at the end of the campaign. Indeed, the Genting Casino Premier League odds put the Saints at 40/1 to go down. Cardiff are 1/7 favourites to make a quick return to the Championship.
Liverpool have had plenty of luck on their side in recent times. They have been the beneficiary of late goals, dodgy decisions and goalkeeping blunders, all of which has helped them stay two points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table.
City host Cardiff on Wednesday evening and barring a shock result (Cardiff are 28/1 to win at the Etihad), Pep Guardiola’s champions will be back on top by the time the Reds run out to face the Saints.
However, City’s run-in is significantly tougher than Liverpool’s. Aside from the fact they have a tougher Champions League two-leg quarter-final against Tottenham and an FA Cup semi-final with Brighton to navigate, their remaining six league games comprise Crystal Palace (A), Tottenham (H), Manchester United (A), Burnley (A), Leicester (H) and Brighton (A).
Tottenham and Manchester United are fighting for a Champions League spot, Burnley and Brighton are still not safe, Leicester hold hopes of finishing seventh and a possible Europa League place, and Crystal Palace have already beaten City this season. Yet the Genting Casino football odds have City as the 2/5 favourites to retain the title.
Liverpool, 15/8 to gain their first title since the 1989-90 season, have a more comfortable task in the Champions League, taking on Porto, they don’t have the distraction of a domestic Cup to negotiate and their run-in comprises Chelsea (H), Cardiff (A), Huddersfield (H), Newcastle (A) and Wolves (H).
Chelsea at home is arguably their toughest task, and with Newcastle safe and on their holidays, and Wolves likely already secure in seventh, the odds of 15/8 for Liverpool to secure their first title in 29 years suddenly looks mightily big.
That is providing they can navigate the choppy waters on the south coast first. Liverpool have ridden their luck a little with a dodgy penalty awarded at Fulham, and last-minute blunders by Everton and Tottenham goalkeepers that has given them six points to keep them in the title race.
The Saints have won three of their last four to ease away from the relegation zone, their only defeat in that run was a 3-2 loss at Manchester United, when sunk by a Romelu Lukaku goal two minutes from time. They subsequently beat Tottenham 2-1 at home and Brighton 1-0 away.
Liverpool, who have drawn one and won five of their last six games, are 2/5 to win this clash at St Mary’s. They are unbeaten away in their last five, their last defeat on the road coming at Manchester City in January.
Only one of Southampton’s last five league games at home has ended in defeat. Their record against the current top five has been decent, with only City coming away with a win. Both Arsenal and Tottenham lost at St Mary’s, while United drew 2-2 after being 2-0 behind.
Southampton are 7/1 to win this clash, while the draw is available at 15/4.
TEAM NEWS
Liverpool are sweating on the fitness of central defender Virgil Van Dijk. The former Southampton man picked up a knock in the 2-1 win over Tottenham at Anfield on Sunday. He had to ice an ankle afterwards and despite games coming thick and fast, boss Jurgen Klopp will likely put him in the line-up.
Van Dijk has been a commanding figure in a Liverpool side that has conceded just 19 goals this season and Liverpool are 10/11 to keep a clean sheet at St Mary’s.
The Saints are likely to be without Jan Vestergaard, Shane Long and Mario Lemina, while Danny Ings is ineligible, as he’s still technically on loan at Southampton.
Expect to see Charlie Austin up front with James Ward-Prowse and Nathan Redmond assisting him in attacking duties. Austin is 16/5 to score at any time, while Ward-Prowse is 5/1 to find the net at any stage.
LIVERPOOL KEEP PACE?
Liverpool won 2-0 at Southampton last season thanks to goals from Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah. The Reds won 3-0 at Anfield earlier this season. Wesley Hoedt scored an own goal before Joel Matip and Mo Salah put the game beyond The Saints before half time.
Liverpool have scored eight goals in their last three games and none of them have come from Salah, who is now on an eight-game run without scoring. However, as he showed against Tottenham when his far-post header led to the comical second goal, he is still a vital component.
It can’t be too much longer before he hits the mark again and the Egyptian striker is 19/20 to score at any time and 3/1 to score the first goal.
Goals may be hard to come by if the trends hold. In the last seven meetings one or other team has failed to score. Liverpool have won the last three meetings to nil, two were scoreless draws and the Saints won the other two to nil. It is 23/20 that Liverpool win to nil and 11/1 for the Saints to win to nil. A goalless draw is available at odds of 8/1.
Just seven of the last 19 meetings have yielded three goals or more and the Genting Casino football odds of Evens for under 2.5 goals to be scored in total might tempt a few.
Liverpool have won four of the last 10 meetings with the Saints, including the last three. They have not won four successive meetings since March 1972, when they recorded five consecutive 1-0 defeats upon the southerners in just over a calendar year. It is 17/10 for a Southampton win or draw on the Double Chance market.
There was nothing easy about Liverpool’s last three league wins and Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side will doubtless pack their defensive ranks in a bid to frustrate the visitors.
Liverpool have a happy knack of scoring late goals and they have bagged the last goal in each of their last five games in all competitions. In seven of the last 10 games involving Southampton, there has been a goal scored in the last 14 minutes. Little wonder it is 19/20 for a goal to be scored by either team between the 76th and 90th minutes.
Southampton have only failed to score on three occasions since Hasenthuttl took charge and in that 18-game span, the only times they failed to register was on the road. It is 21/10 for Liverpool to win and both sides score.
Liverpool have not won by more than a single-goal margin or netted more than twice on the road in their last seven domestic away days since the turn of the year, so there may be a few who think backing Southampton +2 goals on the handicap at 7/10 might prove rewarding.
For all the odds on this vital Premier League game, click here.
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