Portugal v Spain - Betting Preview

Portugal will attempt to become only the fourth nation to win back-to-back European Championships and World Cup tournaments after West Germany (Euro 1972 and World Cup 1976), France (World Cup 1998 and Euro 2000) and Spain (Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012).

They kick off their Group B campaign with a grudge match against local rivals Spain on Friday night.

Regardless of the outcome of this opening match, Portugal will be confident of progression to the knockout stages of the tournament. After Spain, the reigning European champions take on Morocco and Iran in their final Group B fixtures.

How far they progress will rest on the shoulders of Cristian Ronaldo who, at 33, is likely to be playing in his last World Cup. It is the one major trophy that has eluded him. His 81 goals in 150 internationals, with 15 in the World Cup qualifying campaign, underline how valuable he is to the nation.

Portugal are ranked No4 in the rankings by FIFA  but their World Cup outright odds suggest they sixth favourites – behind England! Not that this matters, as they were similarly disregarded in the Euros, where Fernando Santos made them extremely difficult to beat and they continued to grind out the required results.

It is no fluke that they have lost just twice in 29 matches under the former Porto, Benfica and Sporting Lisbon boss.

They conceded just four goals in 10 World Cup qualifying games and scored 32, although outside of Switzerland, who beat Portugal 2-0 in their opening qualifying game, the opposition was modest.

In recent international friendlies, they have recorded draws against the US, Belgium and Tunisia and suffered a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands, who failed to qualify for the World Cup.

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Sacking significance

Spain boasts a veteran squad including David Silva (Manchester City), Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid) and Champions League bad boy Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid). Spain’s captain is unlikely to take it easy on Madrid teammate Ronaldo, though.

Spain have hardly had the best preparation, sacking their manager less than 48 hours before the first of their Group B games.

The dismissal of Julen Lopetegui was a stunning move. Real Madrid’s announcement that they would be employing the 51-year-old after the World Cup did not sit well with La Roja’s hierarchy and they replaced him with Fernando Hierro, whose only previous managerial experience came in one season at lowly Oviedo.

Regardless, Spain boasts a superb blend of youth and experience. They know the system, they have the nous and big-game players to flourish.

In qualifying, they dropped just two points in a 1-1 draw with Italy. They head to Russia on the back of a 20-match unbeaten run and are third favourites in the World Cup outright betting.

Spain has lost just six of the 36 meetings between the countries and has won 18 of them. However, Portugal has won five and drawn seven of the last 16 encounters.

Team news

The only real concern for Spain is the Dani Carvajal, who limped off in Real Madrid’s Champions League final win over Liverpool. He has just returned to training and it is possible that Alvaro Odriozola could replace him, despite only having four international caps at right-back.

Hierro is likely to stick with Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets, although Koke could come into the mix at the expense of Thiago Alcantara. Diego Costa is the lone striker.

Portugal have no major injury concerns and after a 3-0 win over Algeria last week, it appears that Bruno Fernandes did enough to warrant a place in the heart of the defence with Pepe.

Verdict

Portugal 1-1 Spain - the Correct Score Odds are 5/1.

This is likely to be a cagey affair. Portugal are notoriously slow starters in major competitions, while Spain may take time to settle into a pattern of play with a new manager installed. There is enough experience on both sides to know that they both have the beating of the group’s other participants Iran and Morocco.

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