13 Nov 2019
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Northern Ireland have acquitted themselves well in these qualifiers and can be proud of their standing in Group C, but drawing the Netherlands and Germany always meant progression was fanciful and their chances of making it to Euro 2020 now hover somewhere between slim and nil.
A late collapse in Rotterdam last month, where Ronald Koeman’s charges bagged three goals from the 80th minute onwards to seal a 3-1 win, means that realistically they now need to beat both of those European giants in order to stand a chance of progressing.
In addition, they have to hope that one of their rivals drops points in the other matches, which is highly unlikely given Germany host Belarus, while the Dutch welcome Estonia to Amsterdam.
Michael O’Neill may have taken up the job at struggling Championship outfit Stoke, but remains at his post for the national side until their Euro 2020 fate has been decided.
He’s installed a hard work ethic in his team since arriving in the dugout back in 2012, recognizing that in the absence of any real forward talent, a strong defensive unit was essential to achieving success.
Over 2.5 Goals
As a consequence of this approach, 31 of 46 competitive matches under him have seen fewer than three goals, though that hasn’t always been the case versus the stronger European teams they’ve encountered.
Limiting their results to games against Germany, Netherlands, Portugal and Croatia (the best on the continent they’ve faced), their record stands at eight defeats from nine winless clashes as over half saw a minimum of three strikes.
The prospects of Northern Ireland keeping things tight are reduced by the Netherlands’ output, with the Oranje netting at least twice in eight of their last 10 matches over 90 minutes, despite the majority coming against teams that featured in League A of the inaugural Nations League.
In fact, they’ve bagged 13 goals in their past four fixtures alone, all of which they won, while seven of their last nine have seen at least three goals overall as six saw four or more.
Halftime – Draw/Fulltime-Netherlands
Although the Dutch have improved greatly under current management, they’ve only taken a lead into the break twice in nine away matches since Koeman took charge.
These came in their last two trips at Belarus and Estonia, but those sides are 86th and 104th according to FIFA’s world rankings, whereas Northern Ireland are a far healthier 34th.
Given the hosts have been level at the half-time whistle in 13 of their last 18 matches (including seven of the past eight), but have consistently fallen short when facing elite sides, Draw/Netherlands in the half-time/full-time market holds some considerable appeal.
Draw/Netherlands HT/FT At 14/5
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