12 Jun 2019
The NFL is back in London on Sunday at the Los Angeles Chargers host the Tennessee Titans. Can the Minnesota Vikings end their hoodoo in the Big Apple against the Jets? Will the Denver Broncos cover the spread when they travel to Arizona on Thursday? We take a look at some of the big games ahead of Week 7, providing quick hits and top trends…
DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Denver at Arizona is one for the purists. The Broncos (2-4) have been pilloried for their lack of offensive output and vanilla play-calling, while the Cardinals (1-5) have struggled to move the ball effectively with rookie passer Josh Rosen.
The Bronocs have lost four consecutive games, allowed 593 rushing yards in the past two weeks, and recently became the first team in history to allow successive running backs to gain 200 or more yards in a single game. They have not had back-to-back losing seasons since 1972.
Denver may win if they find a way of stopping running back David Johnson, who received s $39m contract on the eve of the 2018 season.
However, Johnson is running behind an injured offensive line and 21-year-old Rosen has been struggling, although he did produce a nice bounce-back game with a 21-for-31 and 240-yards passing day in a 27-17 loss at Minnesota last week.
Denver must run the ball more. In the last two weeks, Denver has a 92/32 pass/run-ratio, which is an odd coaching decision, given that the Broncos lead the NFL in yards per carry on the ground. Against a Rams defense that is 27th in the NFL in YPC against the run, the Broncos handed the ball off just 15 times and dropped back to pass 43 times in a home loss on Sunday.
Better balance may see the Bronos win and they are considered 2.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino American Football handicap at odds of 11/10. They can be backed at 3/ 4 on the Moneyline.
The Broncos have covered the handicap on seven of the last eight meetings and have never lost on back-to-back trips. The Cardinals are 21/20 to gain a second successive home win over the Broncos on the Genting Casino NFL Moneyline.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
We are back at Wembley Stadium for a big AFC clash as the Titans (3-3) face the surging Chargers (4-2) in the second of three consecutive Sundays of NFL action in London.
Tennessee lead the AFC South, while the Chargers are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, having won their last three. The Titans are coming off a 21-0 home loss to Baltimore, while the Chargers thumped the Browns 38-14 in Cleveland last weekend, having previously seen off the Raiders and 49ers, a trio that is hardly an NFL murderers’ row.
The Genting Casino NFL handicap has the Chargers as 6.5-point favourites at odds of 10/11, while the Titans, who have lost 10 of the last 11 meetings, are 8/13 in receipt of 9.5 points.
The Titans offensive line is been paper thin and QB Marcus Mariotta was sacked 11 times by the Ravens on Sunday. His eye-level came down with each sack and he ended with 10 completions for 117 yards.
Titans failed to handle the blitz in any shape or form and they are averaging just 14.5 points per game. They are also averaging 98.5 rushing yards per game which ranks 22nd in the NFL and their 164 passing yards per game ranks 30th.
Yet the Chargers don’t have much of a pass rush without injured Joey Bosa and the Titans’ defense, led by marauding DE Jurrell Casey, has consistently kept them in games and is conceding just 17.3 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL.
The Titans are 3-1 ATS as an underdog whereas the Chargers are 2-2 ATS as a favourite, and those who think this trend will continue may wish to back the Titans at 10/11 in receipt of 6.5-points.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS
The Minnesota Vikings are 3-2-1 for the season after earning a 26-17 win over the Arizona Cardinals, and now head to the Big Apple to play the Jets, who are 3-3 following a 32-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets have won their last two after a three-game losing streak.
Minnesota’s defense kicked into gear against the Cardinals, who were 0-10 on third downs, and the Vikings’ defense gave up just 10 points (the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown) in conceding a season-low 269 yards.
The Jets, meanwhile, allowed 428 yards to the Colts, including 127 on the ground, but their own rushing attack is staking up 130.3 yards per game on the ground, good enough for fifth in the NFL.
The Vikings rank 25th on the ground with 87.3 yards per game, but last week padded that stat with 195 yards. Latavius Murray led the way with a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.
The Vikings face a rookie QB for the second straight week in Sam Darnold but they will have to buck an unwelcome trend, for the Vikings have never won in New York in five attempts and have only won two of the 10 previous meetings.
The Vikings are considered 8/15 Moneyline favourites, with the Jets at 6/4. The hosts can be backed in receipt of 2.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 6/5, with the visitors at 5/4 conceding 5.5 points.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars’ defense has been inconsistent year-to-year and has been disappointing of late. They get to face Texans’ QB Deshawn Watson, who is carrying a couple of injuries as he attempts to lead the visitors to a fourth consecutive victory.
The Jaguars have been outscored by Kansas City and Dallas 70-21 in their last two outings and QB Blake Bortles has tossed two touchdowns and five interceptions, while completing just 60 per cent of his passes.
Jacksonville, who are in London next week, seeks a third successive win over their AFC South rival, although the Texans won the previous six contests.
The key could be an angry and frustrated Jacksonville front seven. They go against a QB that has been sacked (25) and hit (65) more than any other passer in the league.
Jacksonville are 2/5 Genting Casino NFL Moneyline favourites and are asked to give up 4.5 points on the handicap at odds of 3/4.
The Texans, whose three wins have been narrow ones, are 11/10 in receipt of 4.5 points or they can be supported at 4/6 in receipt of 7.5 points. They are 15/8 to win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Carolina won’t relish a trip to Philadelphia, where they have managed just one win in their last six visits, particularly since the Eagles will adopt Washington’s blueprint for beating their defense in the ground game. They run a similar scheme and also enter this contest off three extra days’ rest, having trounced the New York Giants last Thursday.
The Eagles are 17-3 at Lincoln Financial Field since the Doug Pederson era began in 2016 and Carolina is suddenly looking ordinary, having barely beaten a poor Giants team at home before losing at Washington.
However, the Panthers are 28-17-1 against the spread after a loss (winning 22 of their 46 games after a defeat) and are 21-14 ATS as road underdogs since 2011, which is fourth-best in the NFL.
The early line move in interesting. It opened at 3.5 points and is now at 4.5 points in favour of the Eagles. Genting Casino NFL handicap odds are 10/11 that the Super Bowl champion Eagles will cover that number.
The Panthers are 15/8 to win on the Moneyline, while they are 6/10 in receipt of 7.5 points on the handicap.
The points total went over the line on the last three meetings in Philly and it is 17/20 that there will be fewer than 45.5 points this time.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Cleveland do not appear to be a team who can come from behind and win. Their strength is in their running game and they are extremely thin at the wide receiver position. Rashard Higgins and Derrick Willies are already out and Rod Streater was lost in a 38-14 home loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Take out Jarvis Landry and there is too much placed on shoulders of rookie passer Baker Mayfield.
The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against NFC opponents and while it is surprising to see the Buccaneers, who are on a three-game losing streak, as the Genting Casino 4/7 Moneyline favourites, they have won three of the last four against the Browns.
Tampa possesses the league’s worst pass defense, giving up 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 356 yards per game on average. They have little pressure up front and have recorded nine sacks in total.
While Tampa outgained Atlanta 512-416 yards last week, they still lost and QB Jameis Winston threw two picks, one of which was on second down on the Falcons’ seven-yard line.
It is worth noting that the Bucs beat the Eagles at home and ran the Steelers close, so there may be a few who take the Buccaneers -2.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 8/11 to get back on track.
BUFFALO BILLS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts (1-5) and Bills (2-4) are both coming into this off respective defeats. The Bills could be without rookie passer Josh Allen, who injured his elbow late in the 20-13 defeat by the Houston Texans last week. Nathan Peterman completed six of 12 passes with one TD and two interceptions in relief. It could be that 14-year veteran Derek Anderson, signed last week, may play in relief of Allen.
The Colts got starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo back last week, which is a boost to Andrew Luck and the passing game.
The Buffalo secondary has been excellent, though, while the Colts have a depleted group of receivers. T.Y. Hilton has missed the last two games and they could again be without starting TE jack Doyle. Ryan Grant and Marcus Johnson also left the game with injuries last week.
The Bills will bring their run-heavy offense to Lucas Oil Stadium, and it is possible that the Colts may be able to stack the box with some degree of success, given the Bills’ QB issues.
The Colts, who come into this on the back of a 42-34 loss to the New York Jets, have been competitive in every game, but 46 penalties, 13 turnovers and slow starts have hurt them.
Still, they are considered 8.5-point favourites at odds of Evens on the Genting Casino NFL handicap. The Bills can be backed at 13/5 on the Moneyline and some will feel they are value at 8/13 in receipt of 11.5 points.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears’ three wins were far from impressive. They beat Seattle, edged out Arizona on the road and made mincemeat of a woeful Tampa Bay defense. They have not beaten a quality opponent yet and lost last week to the Miami Dolphins, who were playing with a back-up passer.
They also don’t do particularly well as a home underdog – they have won 20 of 49 as a home dog of three points or less.
The Patriots (4-2) have played some decent teams and handed Kansas City their first loss of the season on Sunday. They are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 as a favourite and won 35 of those games.
The Bears have been shaken by an unexpected loss in Miami. They are a modest 3-3 on the season and their defense is not as good as advertised, given that they allowed 380 passing yards to Brock Osweiler, 161 yards on the ground to a team averaging just 96 per game, and they failed to hold a 21-10 third-quarter lead.
The Patriots are on a roll after a 1-2 start and have won seven of their last eight meetings since losing 46-10 in Super Bowl XX.
Genting Casino has the Patriots as 6/10 Moneyline favourites, with the Bears at 11/8. The visitors can be backed at 23/20 conceding 4.5 points on the handicap, and at 17/4 to win by seven to 12 points inclusive.
Those seeking picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
