12 Jun 2019
Indianapolis Colts face the man who left them standing at the altar, but will they gain a measure of revenge on New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels? Can the Miami Dolphins bounce back after a shocking loss when they travel to Cincinnati? We take a look at some of the big games ahead of Week 5 in the NFL, providing quick hits and top trends.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England looked back to their best when thumping previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 last week to move to 2-2 for the season. Both wins have come at home. The Colts lost a heartbreaker in overtime at home to the Houston Texans to move to 1-3.
With Andrew Luck at QB, the Colts have not yet managed to beat the Tom Brady-led Patriots in five tries. On the road, Luck has thrown for just 343 years in two games with three scores and two interceptions. He needs to bring his home form if the Colts are to cause a shock.
Yet he has a better statistics against New England than many QBs, having thrown for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in four of his five career meetings.
It is never easy to travel on a short week, and more so when facing Brady, who has won 10 of his 12 Thursday night games.
Whether the Patriots, who struggled to beat the Texans at home and lost badly to Jacksonville and Detroit on the road, bounced back to their usual form, or whether the Dolphins regressed to normalcy after taking advantage of an early soft schedule remains to be seen.
The layers think the former, as they are considered 9.5-point Genting Casino NFL handicap favourites at 17/20, which is a lofty spread to cover, even with receiver Julian Edleman returning to action.
Plus, there is the revenge factor – Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels accepted an offer to become the Colts’ head coach, then did a U-turn and left them standing at the altar. These two franchises really don’t like each other, and that pre-dates the ‘Deflategate’ saga.
There may be a few points, as the line is set at 52.5. The odds for the points total to eclipse that line are 19/20.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina Panthers are rested following their bye and they host a New York Giants team reeling from a 33-18 home loss to the New Orleans Saints, who traditionally have not fared well in NYC.
The Panthers ‘won’ their bye week, having signed Eric Reid, who will replace injured starting safety Da’Norris Searcy. Pro Bowl right guard Trai Turner and deep-threat receiver Curtis Samuel also returned to training.
The Giants have lost the last two clashes, with the Panthers scoring 38 points each time, yet Big Blue has failed to score points consistently in a league that is scoring points elsewhere at a record rate.
The Giants rank No.25 in total yards per game (314.3), No.20 in passing yards per game (232.3) and No.29 in points per game (18.3). They have not scored 30 points in 36 straight games.
QB Eli Manning’s game as always been deep, downfield passes off of play-action, but he is being shackled by the new coaching staff, whose dink-and-dunk approach has seen Manning’s completion percentage soar to 74.2 percent, 14 points higher than his career average.
But until the game-plan changes and the Giants become more adventurous, their struggles will continue. That is why many will be interested in the Panthers’ odds of 5/6 on the Genting Casino NFL handicap conceding 6.5 points. The Giants are 5/2 to pull off the win on the Moneyline.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The Tennessee Titans recorded a third straight win after beating Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, while the Bills slumped to 1-3 after a 22-0 defeat at Green Bay, just a week after going on the road and crushing Minnesota 27-6 (as 17-point dogs).
This could be something of a trap game for the Titans, especially since Buffalo has a deep-seated dislike of them because of the Music City Miracle. Over-confidence is going to be an issue that Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel will have to address, especially with Baltimore to follow next week.
Buffalo failed to establish any semblance of a running game last week, because Green Bay stacked the line of scrimmage and did not respect rookie QB Josh Allen’s ability to pass. He is making too many rookie errors, not seeing the entire field and is, at times, a little too reckless and too quick to get out of the pocket.
The Titans are 8/15 on the Genting Casino American Football Moneyline and 8/15 conceding 2.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap.
There is also Winning Margin betting available, and some will be interested in the 4/1 for the Titans to win by 7-12 points.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Dolphins were dreadful in defeat by the New England Patriots, but they still hold a 3-1 record, good enough to top the AFC East. The Bengals shocked Atlanta on the road last week and also hold a 3-1 record.
Cincinnati has been a happy hunting ground for the Dolphins over the years, though. They have never lost on back-to-back trips to the Queen City and hold a 9-4 record all-time there.
Should the Fins win on Sunday, they would hold tie-breakers against the leaders of the AFC South (Tennessee) and AFC North (Bengals).
Despite the shellacking by the Patriots, this is a prideful group who have shown in the past that they improve as the season goes on. The season-ending injuries to centre Daniel Kilgore, left guard Josh Sitton and defensive end William Hayes are troublesome, and now cornerback Bobby McCain will be out for a few weeks with a knee injury.
However, the schedule softens after they face the Bears next week and, as it stands, the Dolphins will face just two more teams who currently have a winning record – the Jaguars and the Packers.
Cincinnati got some good news this week as RB Giovani Bernard, Michael Johnson and Preston Brown all returned to action against the Falcons, and Vontaze Burfict will ease himself back in after a four-week suspension and rookie centre Billy Price should also be ready to start in Week 5.
The bad news is that TE Tyler Eifert is out for the year and probably won’t be seen in a Bengals uniform again, and starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson appear to be being victimised regularly by opponents.
Teryl Austin’s defense is allowing over 28 points per game and is worst in the league at getting off the field on third-down situations. They face Ryan Tannehill, a QB who has the ability to extend plays, so this is a potential banana skin for the Bengals.
The hosts are considered 5.5-point Genting Casino online NFL handicap favourites at odds of 3/4 but there will be those who place faith in historic trends that will think the 9/4 Genting Casino NFL Monelyline odds for a Dolphins win might represent value.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Atlanta are struggling defensively with the loss of Adrian Clayborn and Dontari Poe in the off-season. Now they have suffered major injuries, with Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen. That’s five starters gone from 2017. Worse still, it appears that DT Grady Jarrett will be out for a couple of weeks with a sprained ankle.
To address this, Britain’s Jack Crawford will likely see more playing time. He flashed plenty of potential in limited action last year. On Tuesday, the Falcons also signed former Jaguars DT Michael Bennett, signalling they don’t have much faith in their depth on the defensive line.
The Falcons now face a Steelers team reeling form a divisional loss to Baltimore – and they have never won at Pittsburgh in seven previous attempts.
The Steelers are 1-2-1 after losing to the Baltimore Ravens and anyone thinking they could replace Ryan Shazier and Le’Veon Bell and be anywhere near the team they were last season is delusional.
Worryingly, the Steelers’ offense managed just 47 yards on 23 plays in the second half of a 26-14 loss to the Ravens, never once making it beyond midfield.
The Steelers are simply not a good football team at this juncture, but with Atlanta’s defensive problems, QB Matt Ryan is going to have to continue to put up some big numbers if the Falcons are going to redress their losing record.
The Genting Casino NFL odds have the Steelers at 4/7 on the Moneyline and Evens conceding 3.5 points on the handicap. The Falcons can be backed at 8/15 in receipt of 6.5 points and are 7/5 on the Moneyline. It is a tough game for punters to fathom.
Those seeking picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
