12 Jun 2019
Can the New England Patriots bounce back and cover the handicap against their unbeaten AFC East rival Miami Dolphins? Are the Green Bay Packers capable of covering a lofty spread against the Buffalo Bills?
We take a look at all the big games ahead of Week 4 in the NFL, providing quick hits and top trends.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
Travelling to play on a Thursday night is not easy. The stats bear this out. For one of the most glaring NFL trends may be extended by the Minnesota Vikings. They could become the 11th team to lose when making a trip west across two time zones. It does not seem like a hardship, travelling between four to six hours on a plane, but no team flying from the Central time zone to the Pacific time zone has ever won or covered a handicap in the past 12 years.
Throw in the fact that the 3-0 Rams are Super Bowl favourites with Genting Casino and the Vikings suffered a shocking 27-6 home loss as a 17-point favourite to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and you can see why many will think the hosts can covers the 7.5-point Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 21/20.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Miami are a surprising 3-0 on the season, while the AFC Champion Patriots are 1-2, having lost to both Jacksonville and, more surprisingly, Detroit in their two road games.
The Dolphins have not beaten a Tom Brady-led Patriots at Foxboro since 2005 (they won in 2008, but Brady was injured), and must go without DE William Hayes, who tore his ACL in the 28-20 win over the Oakland Raiders last Sunday. The Dolphins have depth at that position and rookie Charles Harris is likely to see more playing time.
The Patriots have won all 11 home meetings with Brady at QB and have covered the handicap on seven occasions. Miami is surprisingly good when a big underdog, and since the 2015 season, they have covered the handicap (Against The Spread or ATS) on four of the six occasions when they have been ceded nine points or more. The Genting Casino NFL handicap has the Dolphins in receipt of 7.5 points at odds of 8/11 and they can be backed on the Moneyline at 12/5.
CINCINNATI BENGALS@ ATLANTA FALCONS
The Atlanta Falcons dropped to 1-2 on the year following their second narrow loss, going down in overtime to the New Orleans Saints, while the Bengals lost by double digits to a decent Carolina team.
The Falcons have not been great at covering handicaps in the Dan Quinn era when favoured by five points or more. In fact they are 5-12 ATS in such games, although they won 11 of those contests. They are also 0-6 ATS against teams from the AFC.
However, the Bengals have lost the last three trips to Atlanta and Falcons running back Devonta Freeman, who is a major part of their offense, is likely to return after injury. The Falcons can be backed at 2/5 on the Moneyline and at 21/20 giving up 6.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERRS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Take it as read that Chicago QB MIchell Trubisky is not the second coming of Joe Montana. He has looked inaccurate at times and has to rely heavily on a decent running game. While he led the Bears from a 14-point deficit to beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Chicago’s offense was far from impressive.
Tampa Bay made a surprising 2-0 start and were unfortunate that Ryan Fitzpatrick chose to have one of his weaker outings as the Bucs narrowly failed in their bid to mount a comeback against Pittsburgh on Monday.
The Bucs have been a poor road team for handicap backers, going 3-6-1 ATS and losing eight of their last 10. Yet because of Chicago’s inability to put points on the board, Fitzpatrick’s crew may just have enough to gain a fifth win in nine attempts at Soldier Field. This game is off the board right now.
DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
One of the more tricky games to work out this week. The Lions stunned the Patriots, with head coach Matt Patricia putting one over on his former employers, while the Cowboys looked offensively impotent in defeat at Seattle.
The Cowboys are somewhat surprisingly deemed the 3.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at Evens as in the last five regular season games they have averaged just 11.8 points per game.
They do have a decent record of covering handicaps of three points of more at home though, going 6-4 ATS in their last 10 in such instances and won eight of those contests.
The Lions have lost five of the last seven trips to Dallas, including the last two, but have not lost three consecutive visits since dropping five on the spin between 1963 and 1977. There will no doubt be a few Lions supporters in for the generous Genting Casino Moneyline odds of 11/8.
BUFFALO BILLS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Once in a while you get a major shock that no-one can see coming. No team since 1995 had won a game when an underdog of 17 points or more, but that is what happened when the Bills went to Minnesota and whipped them 27-6 last weekend.
The Packers lost their first of the season in Washington on Sunday, and they were also held to a tie by the Vikings, so in theory, the Packers as 8.5-point handicap favourites is a line that will look a little lofty to some.
However, since Aaron Rodgers became the Green Bay starting QB in 2008, the Packers have been double-digit favourites on 23 occasions and they have gone 13-10 ATS and win 21 of those contests.
The Bills have lost on their last three trips to Lambeau Field yet some will still think the Bills are worthy of consideration on the Genting Casino handicap as the Packers have covered the spread just once in their last five home games against AFC teams.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS
The Eagles are 2-1 after bouncing back from a road loss in Tampa to hold off the Indianapolis Colts at home and they are 5.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites to beat the Titans, who won in Jacksonville last week.
Given that Tennessee have injury concerns with QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) and Blaine Gabbert was knocked out of Sunday’s game too, there will be those who think the handicap is a small once for the Eagles to cover. But buyer beware, as the Eagles have never managed to win in Nashville.
HOUSTON TEXANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Texans are still seeking their first win, having lost at home to the New York Giants, while the Colts are 1-2, having lost narrowly in Philadelphia.
The Texans have the longest losing streak in the NFL, which dates back to Week 12 of last season – a span of nine games, in which they covered the handicap just once.
In fact, they are 1-11 in their last 12 games and with Andrew Luck looking more like his old self after successive shoulder surgeries, there will be a few players who think the Colts can cover the 1.5-point Genting Casino handicap and extend their streak over the Texans that stands at eight victories from the last 11 meetings.
NEW YORK JETS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jets, who have lost two of three outings this season, have won all four meetings since 2010, including last year’s 23-20 success. The Jaguars, who fell to 2-1 after a home loss to Tennessee, are heavy 9.5-pointGenting Casino handicap favourites at odds of 21/20 to bounce back.
They have been good at covering big spreads. Last season they covered on all three occasions when favoured by a touchdown or more. This game is an awkward one for punters, but having lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns, the Jets will look to bounce back and some may think the Moneyline odds of 14/5 are worth chancing. After all, anything the Bills can do…
NEW YORK JETS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jets, who have lost two of three outings this season, have won all four meetings since 2010, including last year’s 23-20 success. The Jaguars, who fell to 2-1 after a home loss to Tennessee, are heavy 9.5-pointGenting Casino handicap favourites at odds of 21/20 to bounce back.
They have been good at covering big spreads. Last season they covered on all three occasions when favoured by a touchdown or more. This game is an awkward one for punters, but having lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns, the Jets will look to bounce back and some may think the Moneyline odds of 14/5 are worth chancing. After all, anything the Bills can do…
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Having won their first game to snap a winless streak of 635 days spanning 19 games, when beating the Jets 21-17 last week, Cleveland seeks to snap a 22-game losing streak on the road when they head to Oakland, who have made a surprising 0-3 start.
Second-half collapses have hurt the Raiders, who looked in command until the fourth quarter in Miami until the Dolphins hit back to win by eight last Sunday.
The Raiders should probably deserve to be 2.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites at home, given the Browns have gone 5-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road defeats. There will be a few who think their excellent QB Derek Carr, who has completed 76.6 percent of his passes in the first three weeks, will lead his team to only a fourth win over the Browns in 10 home meetings, but other will think the Browns may be value on the Genting Casino Monelyline at 5/4 with excellent rookie QB Baker Mayfield now starting.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cardinals blew a 14-point lead against the Chicago Bears and then asked rookie QB Josh Rosen, who is far from the finished article, to win the game with barely two minutes remaining and 80 yards of marauding defense in front of him. He made a fist of it, but as they seek their first win, is he really ready to start over Sam Bradford?
The Cardinals have managed just 20 points in total in three outings and every other NFL team has scored at least double that.
Seattle has gone 7-3-1 ATS when on the road against a divisional opponent in the last 11 tries and they are the 2.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites at 7/10, having overcome Dallas with some ease at home last week. The Seahawks own a 4-0-1 record from their last five trips to Arizona and have not lost back-to-back games to the Cards since 2012.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The Saints are not happy travellers when they head to New York, having won just four of their last 16 at the Giants. After a fortunate and draining win in Atlanta, just how much it has taken out of them remains to be seen.
The fact that the Saints have conceded a league-worst 103 points is countered somewhat by their offense which has put up 104 points in three games, bested only by the 118 of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since 2016, the Saints are 13-16 ATS in games following a win, but the Giants have not fared to well as a home underdog lately, losing 16 of the last 20 games.
Saints are 5.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites at 6/5 and are sure to have their supporters, but the Giants were defensively sound in beating the Texans and if rookie RB Saquon Barkley sees plenty of carries, there will be those hoping the historic trend will continue. The Giants are 6/4 on the Genting Casino Moneyline.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
With QB Jimmy Garopollo likely ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, the 49ers will turn to C.J. Beathard for now, with a few other QBs being looked at by head coach Kyle Shanahan, including Tom Savage, Kellen Clemens, T.J. Yates and Matt Moore.
However, they will not have Colin Kaepernick on their radar, which is a travesty, and probably underlines even further that the outspoken former Super Bowl passer is being white-balled by NFL owners over his views on the victimisation of black and ethnic minorities by authorities in the US.
Last season, when the Niners missed Garopollo for four games, they went 3-1 ATS when an underdog of nine points or more. The Chargers, who looked good in defeat in the Battle of Los Angeles, are just 2-3 in the last five games when nine-point favourites. The Genting Casino NFL handicap line has the Niners in receipt of 10.5 points at odds of 17/20.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers have won their last 11 night games and have gone 7-31 ATS in that span since Week 5 of the 2015 season, following their 30-27 narrow escape at Tampa Bay on Monday.
The Ravens easily dealt with Denver to move to 2-1 on the year and will be keen to put one over on their AFC North rivals, having lost their last three to the Steelers, who evened their record at 1-1-1 for the year. It is perhaps worth noting that they have not lost on three consecutive trips to Pittsburgh since 2007-2009, when they lost four on the spin.
The Steelers are likely to be around 3.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites, when this game is on the board.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS
It was no great surprise to readers of this NFL column that the Broncos would lose to the Ravens last week as we stated they had been very fortunate to win their first two home games.
The Chiefs will prove an equally stiff test on Monday night, bringing their prolific offense, led by rookie phenom QB Patrick Mahomes, to Mile High.
The Chiefs, who have covered the handicap on all three occasions in compiling a 3-0 record, have not won four consecutive meetings in Denver since winning five on the spin between 1965-1969.
While their offense is among the NFL elite, their defense is work in progress and it would not be a surprise to see the Broncos put the ball in the hands of running backs Phillip Lindsay (if he is not suspended after being ejected for throwing a punch last week), Royce Freeman or Devontae Booker in a bid to keep the KC attack off the field.
The Chiefs are considered 3.5-point Genting Casino NFL handicap favourites at odds of 5/6, while the Broncos are a generous 9/5 on the Moneyline.
Those seeking picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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