12 Jun 2019
As Hurricane Florence barrels its way towards the eastern coast of the United States, we look at the whirlwind that is the NFL, with our Week 2 quick hits and top trends. Some games are off the board at present, but we’ll break them down anyway.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Ravens looked a real force when thumping Buffalo 47-3 in the opener, limiting last year’s playoff team to 33 yards of offense and 71 yards in penalties in the first half. The Bengals went on the road and spoiled Andrew Luck’s return, winning 34-23 in a game which was in the balance until deep in the fourth quarter.
These two AFC North rivals meet on Thursday night and the Ravens seek their first back-to-back win in the Queen City since 1999-2000, when they went on to win the Super Bowl. They have lost five of the last six visits and have won just three of the last 11 against the Bengals.
While the Bengals took their time to overcome the Colts, QB Andy Dalton connected on 75 percent of his passes for 243 yards and two scores.
The Ravens will be keen to avenge an unlikely upset on New Year’s Eve, when their defeat sent the Bills to the playoffs at their expense, and the outcome may depend on how successful Cincinnati is running the ball. While we don’t expect another 149-yard day from Joe Mixon (as more of the load will likely be shared with Rocky Bernard), the Bengals’ ground game should have success.
The Ravens are 17/20 Moneyline favourites and can be backed at 7/10 in receipt of 2.5 points on the handicap. The points total is set at 43.5 and given the clear weather forecast, there will be those who will be interested in more points being scored than the set line.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Washington Redskins looked good in winning 24-6 on the road against a decent Arizona Cardinals defense last week. The Colts fell to the Bengals in their home opener and their record is not good in the nation’s capital, having lost six of their last seven trips.
On the flip side, the Redskins have lost four of the last five meetings overall. These two have not met since 2014, however.
Just how the Redskins attack the Colts’ new 4-3 cover 2 defense, installed by Matt Eberflus, is going to be interesting to watch. The Skins employ a short-passing, west coast attack and their ground game was highly effective against Arizona. The Colts will need to be disciplined in their gap assignments up front if they are to slow down QB Alex Smith, whose big strength is checking the ball down and hitting receivers, who find zones and then sit down in them.
He is also careful with the ball and the Redskins may need to be effective with the screen, since Smith’s longest completion in Week 1 was 15 yards.
The Colts are available at 23/20 in receipt of 3.5 points on the handicap with Genting Casino, although some will be tempted by the Redskins conceding 6.5 points at odds of 11/10.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Cleveland Browns gained their best start to a season since 2004 – with a tie at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, their 0-0-1 start is their best for 14 years. That tells you what you need to know about the Browns, whose last win came on December 13, 2015, against the San Francisco 49ers.
But there may be some hope for Cleveland backers. The Saints gave up 417 passing yards and 48 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 1 loss and they showed plenty of offensive spark in their overtime tie with the Steelers.
History may also favour the Browns, who have never failed to score more than 20 points in any of their last 10 trips to the Superdome.
The Browns have also won eight of their last 10 trips to New Orleans, including their last three, so although the Saints are 8.5-point Genting Casino favourites on the handicap, there will be a few takers backing the Browns at 10/11 in receipt of those points.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Carolina justified favouritism when beating the Dallas Cowboys 16-8 last week, while the Falcons fell just short in Philadelphia for the second time in as many seasons, failing on a fourth-down play while in the red zone.
The Falcons have won eight of the last 10 meetings at home against the Panthers and are 2/5 on the Genting Casino Moneyline, which some will find a short price, given that their season was dealt a massive blow when middle linebacker Deion Jones was placed on Injured Reserve. He may return at the midpoint of the season, but even if Duke Riley plays well, the Falcons are severely weakened, particularly so with the absence of safety Keanu Neal.
The Falcons are still lacking in productivity, in part due to the limitations of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and, facing a stout Panthers’ defense, which blanked an admittedly tepid Dallas attack for three quarters last week, will be a major test for the second-year play-caller.
The Panthers’ offense has suffered a few injuries too, and the Falcons, who have had three extra days to prepare, are Evens in receipt of 5.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
This is a second road trip in succession for the Chiefs and that is never easy, especially so when going up against a Pittsburgh team that was held to a tie against Cleveland last week.
The Steelers have won their last six meetings at home against the Chiefs and seven of the last nine overall, but rarely have their meetings been shoot-outs.
That could change this week, with the Chiefs looking far more of a vertical threat in the passing game with Patrick Mahomes at QB and Tyreek Hill developing into more than just a fast, gadget-play receiver – he caught seven passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 38-28 win against the Chargers.
While the Steelers have done a good job of taking away the Kansas City playmakers in the past, they may struggle this time. Equally, the Chiefs have slipped defensively, conceding 514 yards to the Chargers.
The Genting Casino points total is set at 51.5 points and given their respective offenses, the 3/4 available that more points will be scored than the line, may interest many.
The Steelers are 21/20 conceding 5.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap and the Chiefs are 7/4 on the Moneyline.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The Nathan Peterman experiment did not work, just as predicted. The Bills were trounced 47-3 by Baltimore and QB Peterman was benched. So this means a first start for first-round draft pick Josh Rosen against a team that conceded 38 points at home to Kansas City last week.
Rosen, the former Wyoming Cowboys passer, has a strong arm but does not have much of a supporting cast, unlike his Chargers counterpart Philip Rivers, who is now in his 15th professional season, and who has quietly constructed a Hall of Fame-calibre career.
The Bills have a talented secondary, although you would not think so after their debacle in the Baltimore rain, but the Chargers are 3/10 Genting Casino Moneyline favourites, even though they have not won back-to-back meetings in Buffalo since 1985.
Given the Chargers at least generated 514 yards of offense last week in a losing effort against Kansas City, they will appear worthy 6.5-point handicap favourites at 5/6 to many bettors.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
One of these AFC East teams will start 2-0 after the Dolphins played well defensively in a seven-hour, eight-minute marathon (doe to weather delays) win over the Tennessee Titans, while the Jets put up 48 points in a stunning road win at Detroit.
The Dolphins did a good job running the ball in the first half against the Titans, but needed big plays to finally win 27-20, with both teams putting up 17 fourth-quarter points.
The Jets’ rookie passer Sam Darnold had a nice game once getting over his first-pass pick-six, but the offensive line will face more of a test this week and they need to do a better job of creating pressure from the edge if they are to get Miami QB Ryan Tannehill out of his rhythm.
The Dolphins have won just two of the last nine September trips to New York and the Jets are considered 3.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites at 11/10.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay were impressive on their opening weekend road win at New Orleans, putting up 48 points on their NFC South opponents, with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passing for four scores and 417 yards on 21 completions.
While Fitzpatrick is unlikely to have such a big day against this Eagles defense, he has the ability to keep the chains moving and there will be a few takers on the handicap, with the Buccaneers 8/13 in receipt of 5.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap.
Their task against the Super Bowl champion Eagles promises to be more problematic. The Eagles, will also go with a back-up QB in Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, who has faced the Bucs twice before and won both, recording a combined 65.85 completion percentage and an 111.7 passer rating, scoring five touchdowns.
While the Eagles were a little fortunate to beat Atlanta in their home opener, their task in Tampa is made a little easier by injuries to Cornerback Brent Grimes, defensive tackle Vita Vea, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, guard Caleb Benenoch and receiver DeSean Jackson.
In 11 meetings this century, the Eagles have beaten the Buccaneers on seven occasions. They have never won three consecutive meetings in Tampa, however.
Eagles are 11/8 conceding 5.5 points on the handicap and are 4/7 on the Genting Casino Moneyline.
DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Detroit Lions were thrashed at home by the New York Jets on Monday night and now face a tough trip to the west coast to face a team playing its home opener.
The Lions appear to have major defensive issues and while the Niners lost at Minnesota, they kept things close for a long while before succumbing 24-16.
This is not historically a good spot for Detroit, who have lost their last 11 trips to San Francisco and are 2-17 in the last 19 meetings.
The Lions won’t be as bad as they were last week and their Genting Casino handicap odds of Evens in receipt of 5.5 points may well interest some.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
This is all about the health of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who may sit this one out with a sprained knee, suffered against Chicago. However, this is a huge NFC North division battle and he may suit up in any case.
At the time of writing, the markets for this game are suspended, but it is worth noting that the Vikings have won four of the last five meetings, including two of the last three at Lambeau Field.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Cardinals were a little better than their home opening 24-6 defeat by Washington suggests, but the Rams looked every bit as good as their 17/2 Super Bowl second favourites tag suggests in a Monday win at Oakland.
Rams’ record at home to the Cardinals is not great, winning just three of the last 13 meetings and they are playing on a short week, so this must be factored into the equation.
Perhaps the Genting Casino oddsmakers have erred with their 10.5-point handicap line, overestimating the Rams’ chances, and those who take the opposite opinion will be on the Cardinals with the points at odds of 19/20. The Cards can also be supported in receipt of 13.5 points at odds of 8/11.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This rematch of the AFC Championship game sees the Jaguars out for revenge, but they have a poor record against the Patriots, having won just one of their 12 all-time meetings.
The Patriots’ new-look rushing attack goes up against a Jags’ defense that finished second in the league last year and returns 10 of 11 starters.
Without Jeremy Hill, ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, and rookie Sony Michel dealing with a knee injury, James White is the only healthy option at running back, as Rex Burkhead missed practice time due to a concussion.
The Patriots face last year’s No1 ranked unit against the pass and while their offensive line was outstanding against Houston last week, this is an altogether more difficult test for 41-year-old QB Tom Brady and company.
The Jaguars’ rushing attack may also be limited since Leaonard Fournette suffered a hamstring strain last week and has been limited in practice, but the Patriots’ run defense struggled in the opener, allowing 167 yards to the Texans.
The Patriots are 0.5-point Genting Casino favourites on the handicap at odds of 17/20, although some will feel the Jaguars have the edge and will fancy the 8/15 in receipt of 3.5 points.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
The Raiders looked poor in their home opener against the Los Angeles Rams and they travel to a division opponent off a short week. Jon Gruden has his work cut out knocking this team into shape.
Oakland lost five of the last six trips to Denver, who beat Seattle at home last week.
With Justin Ellis and P.J. Hall inured, the Raiders added depth to their defensive line this week when signing free agent DT Jonathan Hankins. He was previously signed to a three-year $30 million deal with the Colts, but was cut last march.
With injuries mounting, the Raiders also added a second DT in former Bronco Clinton McDonald and also re-signed receiver Martavis Bryant. They also added long snapper Trent Seig after placing Andrew DePaola on injured reserve.
It must be remembered that the Raiders moved the ball well against the Rams and it was only a momentum-swinging interception of Derek Carr, with 4.51 left in the first half, that signalled a collapse.
Certainly, the Raiders miss Khalil Mack following his trade to Chicago and they now lack pressure off the edge, but the Broncos hardly looked world-beaters with Case Keenum at QB.
The big question is whether the 6.5-point handicap, at odds of 10/11, is too high for Broncos backers? Some will feel an upset is possible and may believe the 21/10 Moneyline odds for the Raiders to win is good value.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The late game on Sunday is a big NFC East rivalry, with both teams coming into this following Week 1 losses. The Giants have lost four of their last five trips to the House That Jerry Built, and did not show much of an offensive spark when losing by five to the Jacksonville Jaguars at home last weekend.
Likewise, the Cowboys looked bereft of ideas in attempting to break down Carolina on the road, so something has to give.
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw for just 170 yards and was sacked six times by the Panthers. The blame should not lie squarely on offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who looked a genius when he had three Pro Bowl linemen, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to utilise, but they have been replaced by the likes of Deonte Thompson and Geoff Swaim. With Travis Fredrick also diagnosed with a rare illness, the play-action passes they ran effectively last year are now meat and potatoes to opposing defences.
As such, the Giants may be seen by some as the value pick in receipt of 3.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap at odds of 3/4, although the Cowboys are favourites at 8/13 on the Moneyline.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Khalil Mack versus arguably the most porous offensive line in the NFL is not welcome news for Seattle Seahawks, who face another difficult road trip following their loss in Denver.
The Bears were unfortunate to be the victims of an incredible comeback from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week, but the Seahawks’ pass rush was virtually non-existent. That was no surprise since Michael Bennett was traded to the Eagles, Sheldon Richardson departed to Minnesota and Cliff Avril was essentially not healthy to play anymore. Denver’s Case Keenum is not the most mobile of passers and he was sacked just once in 40 dropbacks.
Chicago have a new offensive coaching staff, three new wide receivers, a new tight end, and a modern scheme, so there are going to be growing pains for QB Mitch Trubisky and rookie head coach Matt Nagy.
But if their run defense remains stout (which it should) and Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin and outside linebacker K.J. Wright fail to recover from knee injuries, then this will all fall on the shoulders of Seahawks QB Russell Wilson again.
That is music to the ears of Chicago backers who may be tempted in the 8/15 Moneyline odds or the Genting Casino handicap line of -3.5 points at odds of 19/20.
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Those seeking picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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