12 Jun 2019
It is the final week of the NFL regular season there is plenty still to decide. All 16 games are division contests and there are still 15 teams in contention to play in Super Bowl LIII. In the AFC, four teams have already punched their ticket to the playoffs (New England, Houston, Kansas City and Los Angeles Chargers). There are still two spots up for grabs.
In the NFC, five teams have locked up playoff spots, including all four division winners (Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans), while Seattle have secured a wildcard.
We take a look at every game, offering trends, odds and injury news.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
With Cam Newton shut down for the year with a shoulder injury and back-up passer Taylor Heinicke on Injured Reserve, Kyle Allen is likely to make his first NFL start for the Carolina Panthers.
The Saints could rest players for the playoffs, as they have secured homefield advantage through the playoffs and a first-round bye.
The last time the Saints had the No.1 seed for the NFC playoffs secured before playing the final game of the regular season QB Drew Brees went to midfield for the coin toss but did not take a single snap. Instead, veteran backup Mark Brunell played the full game in a 2009 loss to the Panthers.
A decision to sit Brees this week would put Teddy Bridgewater in line for his first start since January 2016.Brees is eight passing yards short of reaching 4,000 for the 13th consecutive season. He might play one series, but head coach Sean Payton is not saying.
The Panthers may have to make adjustments in the passing game, but what they do is run the ball well. Carolina averages 135 rushing yards per game, fourth-most in the league, accounting for 36.2 percent of their yards. So the onus will be on stopping Christian McCaffrey, who has a league-leading 1,925 scrimmage yards (1,080 rushing, 845 receiving).
The Panthers are in receipt of 9.5 points on the handicap at odds of 17/20 and are 3/1 to win in New Orleans for the first time in four seasons. For all the odds on this clash, click here.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
While the Patriots can earn a first-round playoff bye, the Jets are in position for a top-three draft pick and enter this clash as a wounded bunch. On Wednesday, both starting cornerbacks (Morris Claiborne, Trumaine Johnson) were missed practice, along with two members of the team’s primary wide receiver trio (Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse). Furthermore, two core special teamers (Jason Myers and Kevin Pierre-Louis) were also absent.
Looking further ahead, the Patriots will be looking to draft a quarterback at some point soon. But 41-year-old Tom Brady’s announcement that he intends to carry on for 2019, coupled with the fact that Oregon’s Justin Herbert intends to remain in the college ranks, means the best available passers in April’s Draft are Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State), Daniel Jones (Duke), Drew Lock (Missouri) and Will Grier (West Virginia). While all have upside, none look locks to be decent NFL quarterbacks.
So the Patriots may have a similar look in 2019. After that, some insiders believe that Brady and head coach Bill Belichick will call it a career.
The Patriots have won 13 of the last 15 meetings with the Jets but have failed to cover the handicap in their last three games. They are considered 19/20 shots to successfully cover a 14.5-point handicap.
The Jets are on offer at 4/7 in receipt of 17.5 points and it is 4/6 that there will be more than 42.5 points scored in total. For more odds on this AFC East clash, click here.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
There is no great surprise that Jacksonville revert back to Blake Bortles at QB for the clash with the Texans, given how ineffective the offense remained when after he was benched in favour of Cody Kessler. Somewhere, fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett smiles.
Bortles may add extra mobility, but he leads the NFL in turnovers (93) and interceptions (74) since he entered the league in 2014 as the third overall pick. They will likely move on from Bortles at the end of the season and draft a QB, likely signing a free agent to be a bridge quarterback as well.
In fairness to Bortles and the departed Hackett, the Jaguars’ offensive line has been a mess most of the second half of the season because of injuries. Four of the team’s five starters in the season opener are now on Injured Reserve, and two of the current starters are players that were not with the team until October.
The Texans (10-5) can clinch the AFC South – and possibly a first-round bye or home-field advantage in the playoffs, depending on the results of other games –with a victory over the Jaguars (5-10) at NRG Stadium.
The Jags have never won back-to-back meetings in Houston and while they triumphed 29-7 there last year, they are considered 5/6 chances in receipt of 7.0-points on the handicap.
For more odds on this AFC South clash, click here.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS
It has been a disappointing season for the Dolphins, who started 3-0 and slipped to a 7-8 mark following a second successive defeat last week, at home to the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars.
They travel to Buffalo with an injury-hit squad. Cornerback Xavien Howards (knee) was limited in practice on Wednesday, along with linebacker Kiko Alonso (knee/hamstring), defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (hamstring), left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) and QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder/ankle).
Dolphins are expected to make sweeping front office changes in the offseason with VP of Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum set to be fired. The status of head coach Adam Gase and GM Chris Grier is up in the air.
It is important for Gase that his team wins in Buffalo, but they may have to sit receiver DeVante Parker, as they will be on the hook for $9.37m next season if he plays and gets injured. There is no way they will risk paying that sort of money to an injury-prone receiver who is averaging 2.6 catches and 34 yards per game. The Dolphins are likely to rescind their fifth-year option on Parker before next season and he will become a free agent.
It is also expected that Miami will move on from Tannehill after seven seasons instead of paying him the $19m he’s owed each of the next two seasons and carrying a $26.6 million cap hit next season. It is worth noting, however, that Tannehill has the NFL’s highest passer rating over the past 20 games (97.1).
The Bills are in better shape moving forward than their AFC East rivals and have their QB of the future already in place in Josh Allen. Running back Chris Ivory (shoulder) has not played the last two games but is set to return in a game where nothing but jobs and Draft position are on the line.
The Bills are 1/2 to win and are 19/20 to win by 4.5 points or more on the handicap. The Dolphins, who have lost five of their last six trips to Buffalo, are 6/4 shots to win. For more odds on this game, click here.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
This is a meaningless game, as Dallas have won the NFC East and it looks as though they will face Seattle in the wildcard round next week.
The Giants will try and get rookie running back Saquon Barkley the 144 yards he needs to reach 2,000 yards for the season and elevate him alongside Eric Dickerson (2,212 scrimmage yards in 1983) and Edgerrin James (2,139 in 1999) as the only rookies in NFL history with at least 2,000 scrimmage yards.
The Giants may have receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (quad) and Alec Ogletree (concussion) back for this NFC East clash, although neither practiced on Wednesday.
Whether Dallas rest players, such as running back Ezekiel Elliott, is something that punters must ponder. The feeling is they won’t, aside from those who have niggling injuries.
Dallas has momentum and halting that might not be the wisest option. They also have been ultra conservative on the offensive side of the ball. QB Dak Prescott has been labelled as a check-down passer, but in all likelihood, he is being coached to make conservative decisions and there is plenty left in the playbook. It would be typical of the Cowboys to open that playbook and throw in a few wrinkles.
The Giants lost a heartbreaker at Indianapolis last week and their record at home against the Cowboys is not a brilliant one in recent seasons, winning just six of their last 13.
The hosts are 4/11 to win and are 19/20 to successfully concede 6.5 points on the handicap. For more odds, click here.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Here is another game with little riding on it. Both will miss the playoffs and Atlanta (6-9) has some injury problems to contend with. Running back Tevin Coleman missed practice on Wednesday due to a groin injury, wide receiver Julio Jones was held out due to hip and rib injuries, and guard Wes Schweitzer was out with a back injury.
Injuries have decimated Atlanta this season, particularly on defense. The Falcons are currently the No. 27 defense in yards per game allowed, giving up 381.3 yards, and the No. 25 unit in points per game allowed with an average of 26.1 points. You can’t lose players the calibre of Pro Bowl safety Keanu Neal, Pro Bowl linebacker Deion Jones and free safety Richardo Allen and not see a dip.
Tampa (5-10) needs a victory not to finish in last place in the NFC South for the third consecutive season. They have lost their past three games and seven of their past nine.
This could be the last we see of cornerback Brent Grimes. The former Falcons player, who made it in the NFL after being undrafted, has enjoyed a good NFL career, but he has lost a step this could be his swansong.
Tampa has big-play ability, but they also have a propensity for giving up the ball. The Bucs are a minus-18 in turnover differential, which ranks 31 of 32 in the NFL. The Falcons are plus-1 in turnover differential, which ranks tied for 14th in the league.
One trend stands out – the Falcons have never won three consecutive trips to Tampa and they have won the last two. The Buccaneers are 3/4 to win, and can be supported at 13/10 to successfully concede 3.5 points on the handicap.
See more odds for this NFC South clash here.
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Packers (6-8-1) have started their search to replace long-time head coach Mike McCarthy following his dismissal after their December 2 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Thus far, they have interviewed former Colts’ coaches Jim Caldwell and Chuck Pagano, but on the field, their season ended two weeks ago in Chicago. All that is left is a final meaningless game against the Detroit Lions (5-10).
The Lions have lost four of their last five, including a 27-9 decision at home against the Minnesota Vikings last week, while the Packers aim to finish with back-to-back wins following their 44-38 overtime victory over the New York Jets.
The Lions saw five key starters missing from practice on Wednesday. Defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson (knee) and Damon Harrison (ankle), wide receiver Kenny Golladay (chest), tight end Luke Willson (concussion), cornerback DeShawn Shead (knee) and safety Quandre Diggs (undisclosed) did not practice.
The Packers are 17/20 to successfully concede 7.5 points on the handicap, while the Lions, who bid to win back-to-back games at Lambeau for the first time since 1991, are 4/6 in receipt of 10.5 points and are 13/5 to win. See more odds for this NFC North clash here.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
The Denver Broncos (6-9) have dropped three straight games and host a Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) team with the potential AFC West division title on the line. That reality has the Chargers as the 6.5-point handicap favourites at odds of 17/20.
A win for the Broncos would mean the difference between the Broncos picking in the top 10 and picking 16th in the NFL draft. They have already secured their first back-to-back losing seasons in 46 years and it appears as though head coach Vance Joseph will be jettisoned regardless of the outcome. Defeat would mean back-to-back 10-loss seasons, which has not occurred for 51 years.
The Chargers head to Mile High with a fairly clean injury report. Melvin Gordon missed the last three games with an MCL sprain, but is fit to return, while the other half of the running back duo, Austin Ekeler, returned to full practice on Wednesday after missing the last two games with a neck injury.
The Broncos, who defeated the Chargers in Week 11, must do without Phillip Lindsay. His meteoric rise as an undrafted unknown earned him a Pro Bowl selection, but his season has ended with a broken wrist. It gives fellow rookie Royce Freeman the chance to end his season on a high.
For all the odds on this AFC West clash, click here.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams have not been friendly to punters playing the handicap, covering the spread on just six occasions this season. They face another lofty handicap of 8.5 points (at odds of 4/5) when hosting the 49ers.
However, despite the slumping play of QB Jarred Goff, which coincided with the injury to receiver Cooper Kupp, the Rams leaned on their running game against Arizona last week, employing two tight-ends and one running back. Even though Todd Gurley was sidelined, newly signed veteran C.J. Anderson ran for 167 yards on 20 carries (8.4 YPC) despite facing a stacked box (8+ defenders) 60 per cent of the time. This could be the new model as the Rams head to the playoffs.
The 49ers will be without receiver Dante Pettis and there are also doubts over fellow wideout Marquise Goodwin, who has a calf contusion.
Running back Matt Breida, who sprained his ankle on Sunday, is also ruled out, so Jeff Wilson will fill in and Alfred Morris will get plenty of carries, too. Tight end Garrett Celek is also in the concussion protocol and is a doubt.
With a win, the Rams can clinch a first-round playoff bye and sweep the NFC West. They beat San Francisco 39-10 in their Week 7 meeting, holding them to just 228 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers. As such, the 49ers can be backed at 10/3 to exact revenge. For more odds on this NFC West clash, click here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Who could have failed to enjoy the rise of the Cleveland Browns (7-7-1) this season? They have been competitive in almost every game and while they are not going to the playoffs, with five wins in their last six they have signalled they may be a force next season following years of futility.
On Sunday, they travel to Baltimore, where they have suffered defeat in nine of the last 10 seasons and the Ravens need a win to secure a playoff spot and take the AFC North title. A win or a Pittsburgh loss would eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs.
The Ravens have turned the clock back with their running game. Since naming Lamar Jackson as the starting QB, they have a 5-1 record. Baltimore is running the ball on 63.6 per cent of offensive snaps since Jackson took over for Joe Flacco. Knowing this and stopping this are two entirely different things.
Jackson has carried the ball 47 more times than any other quarterback, despite playing just six games this season. No team has limited the Ravens to less than 159 rushing yards.
Browns top cornerback Denzel Ward is still dealing with concussion and did not practice on Wednesday. Center J.C. Tretter (ankle) and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (biceps) were also missing.
The Ravens have been very lucky with injuries this season and are almost at full strength. They are considered 6.5-point favourites at odds of 17/20, while the Browns can be supported at 8/13 in receipt of 8.5 points. See more odds for this clash by clicking here.
CINCINNATI BENGLAS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers’ loss in New Orleans last week means that they are on the outside looking in and simply beating the Bengals will not be enough to get them into the post-season. The Steelers need the Ravens to lose and, should the Browns do them a favour, then Pittsburgh will win the AFC North if they beat Cincinnati. They can also hope for a win, coupled with a tie between the Colts and Titans, which would see them sneak into the post-season.
Pittsburgh (8-6-1) will key in on Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon, but they will also have to be wary of QB Jeff Driskel, who can keep plays alive with his legs. Cincinnati will be without receiver A.J. Green, however.
The status of Pittsburgh’s top two tacklers, Sean Davis and Vince Williams, who were both injured against the Saints, is still up in the air.
However, running back James Conner, who missed the last three games with an ankle sprain, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.
Steelers are considered 14.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 17/20, while the Bengals (6-9), who have lost six of the last eight trips to Pittsburgh, are 11/2 to cause an upset. For more odds on this AFC North clash, click here.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Kansas City has already made the playoffs, although a No. 1 seed and an AFC West title is on the line for a third consecutive week. They lost their last two games and against Seattle on Sunday they fell short thanks to self-inflicted wounds of penalties (eight for 76 yards), suspect defense and costly turnovers.
It did not help that they were without defensive stalwart Kendall Fuller, who is coming off of thumb surgery. He should be fit this week, along with Spencer Ware, who has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. Right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif also returned to practice, which is great news for the Chiefs, who have been in something of a funk since releasing Kareem Hunt.
All eyes will be on QB Patrick Mahomes, who has tossed 48 TD passes this season. He needs two more to join Peyton Manning (55) and Tom Brady (50) as the only players in NFL history to score 50 TDs in a regular season.
In the past two weeks, Mahomes has posted back-to-back games of fewer than 300 yards passing for the first time all season.
Tyreek Hill is also looking at a Kansas City milestone – he needs just 14 yards to break the franchise record for receiving yards in a season. Derrick Alexander had 1,391 in 2000.
Oakland has lost nine of the last 11 meetings, including the last five trips to Kansas City. They have not lost six in a row there since 1993-98. They come in here as healthy as any team. All 53 players on the Raiders’ roster practiced on Wednesday, according to the team’s injury report.
Chiefs are asked to concede 12.5 points on the handicap at odds of 17/20 and layers are expecting plenty of points, with the line set at 53.5. See all the odds for this AFC West clash here.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Eagles need a win and a Vikings loss to clinch the final playoff berth in the NFC. If Philadelphia advances to the playoffs, the Eagles will be the No. 6 seed and will play the Bears or Rams.
With the Eagles’ playoff hopes in the balance, they could receive a boost with the return of left tackle Jason Peters (quad) on Sunday.
However, their secondary is still a makeshift unit and those who did not participate in practice on Wednesday included defensive end Michael Bennett (foot), safety Corey Graham (illness), cornerback Sidney Jones (hamstring) and QB Carson Wentz (back).
Washington had a great chance of making the playoffs until QB Alex Smith suffered a season-ending broken leg and they cannot rely on journeyman passer Josh Johnson to make big throws when it matters, as evidenced by their loss to Tennessee on Saturday night.
The Eagles are 3/10 to win and 5/6 to successfully cover the 6.5-point handicap. Their season may end with a win, but ultimately may not end with a Super Bowl. See more odds for the NFC East clash here.
CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Chicago Bears can dictate who they want to play in the NFC Wild Card playoffs, should they choose to settle on the No. 3 seed and rest their starters against the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears need a win and a Los Angeles Rams loss to the San Francisco 49ers to earn a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. The Bears own the tiebreaker because they beat the Rams in Week 13.
All Minnesota has to do is win, no matter if the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Redskins. A win and the Vikings clinch the final playoff berth in the NFC, knocking the Eagles out of the playoffs.
Chicago head coach Matt Nagy is unlikely to rest starters, though. He is going to make Minnesota earn its playoff berth.
Will the Bears truly go all out to keep a division rival out of the postseason or will they simply just do enough to put up a fight in the first half and then cruise in the second? That’s the conundrum for punters.
The teams met just over a month ago and the Bears won 25-20, after Minnesota rallied for two late scores. The Bears are 7/4 to win while the Vikings are considered 4.5-point handicap favourites at odds of 17/20. See all the odds for this NFC North clash here.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Cardinals have suffered five losses of 22 points or more this season, the latest of those was a 31-9 defeat by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. They currently hold the top pick in next April’s Draft.
The Seahawks secured their NFC playoff spot with a win over Kansas City. If the Vikings make the playoffs, the Seahawks will have played all the NFC post-season teams this year, bar the New Orleans Saints. They beat the Cowboys and Vikings, while losing twice to the LA Rams and once to the Chicago Bears.
If Seattle beats the Cardinals – and they are 1/12 to do so, and 17/20 to successfully cover a 12.5-point handicap – they will guarantee the No.5 seed in the playoffs. If they lose, then Minnesota could take that spot and push the Seahawks down to the six seed. There is only one opponent they could possibly face in that scenario, which would be the Chicago Bears.
At five, they face the Dallas Cowboys, but if they are the six seed and they win their wildcard game, they will have to travel to New Orleans, which is not a prospect any Seattle fan would want.
For all the odds on the NFC West clash, click here.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Win and they’re in. It is simple for both the Colts and Titans. Win this game and they make the playoffs.
The Titans are sweating on the status of QB Marcus Mariota, who is day-to-day with what is described as a stinger. They will also be without star defensive end Jurrell Casey (knee), Logan Ryan and Delanie Walker.
As for the Colts, Center Ryan Kelly, tight end Eric Ebron and safety Clayton Geathers were all forced to miss Wednesday’s practice, although receiver T.Y. Hilton says he will be fit despite a lingering ankle injury.
Anthony Walker also missed game-time against the Giants last week and he is typically the player charged with getting the defense lined up correctly, so not having him on the field could create some organizational issues.
The Colts have never lost to the Titans when Andrew Luck is at quarterback – he is a perfect 10-0 against them. With one more win, Luck would have more wins without taking a loss against a single opponent than any other quarterback in history. Hall of Famer John Elway is the only other quarterback to get to 10-0 against a team; Elway never lost to the New England Patriots.
Luck orchestrated a 38-10 Indianapolis blowout at Lucas Oil Stadium in their first meeting this season, completing 23 of 29 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns.
However, the Titans are 6-1 at home this season and 16-3 in their last 19 at Nissan Stadium. The Colts are just 3-4 on the road this year. Luck is a career 22-20 on the road.
There figures to be little in this clash and the odds reflect that, with Genting Casino making the Titans 3.5-point underdogs at odds of 17/20, while the Colts can be supported at 7/4 to successfully concede 7.5 points on the handicap.
Colts are 1/2 to win, with the Titans at 6/4. See all the odds for this huge AFC South clash by clicking here.
Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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