12 Jun 2019
It is a long home stretch but we are entering it. Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us and little has been settled. The Rams, Chiefs and Saints continue to surge, the Steelers, Panthers and Texans are on a roll, and the Patriots are still the Patriots. We take a look at some of the big games ahead of Week 10, providing quick hits and top trends.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Panthers enter Thursday’s prime-time matchup with Pittsburgh on the heels of a three-game winning streak, the most recent of which was a 42-28 victory over Tampa. No QB is in better form right now than Panthers’ Cam Newton. Over the past three games, he has completed 69.9 percent of his passes for 735 yards, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 134 yards and another score on 28 carries.
That run of form is down to the fact that running back Christian McCaffrey has returned from injury. The 22-year-old ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns, and caught five passes for 78 more yards against the Bucs to put him 880 yards for the year.
Carolina has scored at least 35 points in back-to-back games and boast one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL at this point. Panthers lead the NFL in yards per carry and rank second in both rushing yards per game and rushing touchdowns.
They still trail the Saints by a game in the ultra-competitive NFC South, but have a big chance of making a deep run in the playoffs if they come through a tricky period which sees four of their next five games on the road.
Pittsburgh are on a similar roll, holding a 5-2-1 record and a half-game lead on the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Steelers, who are 4/9 on the Genting Casino American Football Moneyline, have struggled against the pass, but since their first two games of the season, they have held every opponent under 100 yards rushing.
RB James Connor is making people forget about hold-out Le’Veon Bell. He ranks second in yards from scrimmage in the NFL with 1,085, is averaging 10.0 yards per catch (38 catches) and has 10 touchdowns.
With QB Ben Roethlisberger doing his best work at home, this figures to be a fascinating clash and while the Panthers have never won in Pittsburgh in three tries – they have been beaten in the last five meetings overall – they can be backed at 7/10 on the Genting Casino NFL handicap in receipt of 5.5 points.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last week the Saints (7-1) beat the last of the unbeaten teams, as the Rams fell 45-35 in a thriller. The Bengals are coming off a bye following their 37-34 win over Tampa. They dropped two games prior to that, against the Steelers and Chiefs, putting them half a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North on a 5-3 mark.
Cincinnati is last against the pass and 26th against the run, and the Saints have done a great job of protecting QB Drew Brees, who has only been sacked nine times. The Saints are averaging 402 yards per game and their seventh-ranked passing attack may well have punters thinking it will be too much for the Bengals, who are 15/8 moneyline underdogs.
Saints have won four of their last six trips to the Queen City. They are considered 2/5 Moneyline favourites and are 21/20 on the handicap in conceding 6.5 points.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The last time the Colts (3-5) hosted division rival Jaguars (3-5) in Week 7 last year, the Jaguars sacked back-up passer Jacoby Brissett 10 times in a 27-0 rout.
Things have unravelled a bit over the past month for the Jaguars, who come into this off a bye, having been beaten 24-18 by the Philadelphia Eagles in London, making it a fourth defeat on the bounce.
The Jags have been struggling with an injured offensive line and can’t run the ball without injured Leonard Fournette, who has been out since Week 4. Although he is likely to return, he may not see an excessive workload. While the defense is still good, they allowed the Eagles to convert 58 per cent of their third down attempts.
Putting the ball in the hands of QB Blake Bortles and asking him to throw 41 times is not a recipe for success – and the Colts’ pass rush is decent, which means the possibility of mistakes is heightened. With 16 takeaways, the Colts rank in the top five in the NFL, so it is no huge surprise to see them at 4/6 Genting Casino NFL Moneyline favourites. The Jaguars are 6/4 shots to concede 2.5 points on the handicap, while the Colts can be supported at 6/5 giving up 3.5 points on the handicap.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Coming off their bye, the Cardinals (2-6) hope to have safety Trey Boston and Guard Justin Pugh fit again as they face the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. Chiefs are asked to concede 14.5 points on the handicap at odds of 4/5, which tells you all you need to know about the Cardinals, who have managed to top 18 points just once this season – a 28-18 win over the 49ers.
The Chiefs (8-1), fresh off a 37-21 win in Cleveland, have scored at least 30 points in every home game this season and have never lost at home to the Cardinals.
The Bears (5-3) top the NFC North and have been good at beating up on poor teams outside their division, while the Lions slipped to 3-5 after a troubling loss to the Minnesota Vikings. They have won the last three meetings, however, and all three were close contests.
Yet the Bears will be on many lists to cover the 3.5-point handicap at odds of 8/13, simply because they have a top 10 defense and a top 10 rushing attack. With Khalil Mack possibly returning from injury, this will negate the loss of emotional leader Kyle Long, who was placed on Injured Reserve this week.
The Bears, who have not reached the post-season since 2010, may be able to take advantage of the Lions’ defense which has been struggling. Limiting mistakes and keeping QB Matt Stafford quiet will be crucial. The Bears may not be as good as their record implies, and the Lions not as bad, so some may consider taking the Lions in receipt of 6.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 19/20.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
This is possibly a more interesting match-up than the odds would suggest. Atlanta are 4/9 Genting Casino Moneyline favourites, but their defense is still riddled with injuries. If they can’t get their ground game going against a Cleveland defense which lost veteran linebackers Chris Kirksey and Joe Schobert to injuries, Browns QB Baker Mayfield may have more opportunities to take advantage.
The Falcons are still in the thick of the NFL playoff chase with a 4-4 record following three straight wins over the Bucs, Giants and Redskins, and they need this one as their schedule stiffens with games against the Cowboys, Saints, Ravens and Packers in the next few weeks.
Plenty of players are playing for their jobs in Cleveland after the departure of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, so the Falcons may be catching the Browns (2-5-1), who are Evens in receipt of 3.5 points on the handicap, at the wrong time.
This is not the most enticing Week 10 clash. Both offenses are very limited. Bills lead the league with 22 turnovers, including 16 interceptions between Josh Allen, Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman. With Allen recovering from a sprained elbow, Anderson in the concussion protocol, the Jets may snap a three-game streak without a turnover as Peterman is a turnover machine. In two games he’s thrown for one touchdown and tossed seven interceptions. The Bills have 11 turnovers in the last three games, so are rightly 11/4 Moneyline dogs.
New York failed to score a touchdown in a 13-6 loss to Miami and QB Sam Darnold is coming off his worst offensive performance of the season (202 yards and four interceptions), while the run game has failed to eclipse 100 yards for three consecutive weeks. This won’t be pretty. The Bills have won three of the last 10 meetings in New York and are 3/4 shots in receipt of 8.5 points on the handicap.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Washington Redskins top the NFC East with a 5-3 record following their defeat at home to Atlanta last week. The offensive line has been hit by injuries and inconsistencies in recent weeks, which has meant that QB Alex Smith has found himself under pressure often.
The interior of the defensive line has also had issues stopping the run, which is not such an issue, as the Bucs are not a strong running team.
The Redskins were once again without two of their best playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson. They also missed left tackle Trent Williams and then lost two more lineman before the day was over, so this is a game where the respective records don’t count for much.
While Tampa’s defense is weak, the QB change to Ryan Fitzpatrick has been beneficial, and Tampa are considered 8/13 Moneyline favourites. The Redskins are 4/6 in receipt of 4.5 points on the handicap.
For those who like to play the points totals, it is worth noting that the under has cashed in on eight of the last 10 games involving the Redskins when they play on a grass surface. It is 5/6 that there will be fewer than 52.5 points this time.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
New England (7-2) control the AFC East division and head to Tennessee on the back of a 31-17 win over the Green Bay Packers. They have covered the handicap on no less than 16 occasions in their last 21 road games and are 4/5 to successfully concede 5.5 points to the Titans.
Tennessee’s 4-4 record means they are second in the AFC South, chasing the 6-3 Texans.
Former Patriot CB Malcolm Butler, dropped from the Super Bowl starting line-up, was awful against Dallas last week, and that would have been picked up on tape by Bill Belichick. But was that poor game by design? Will Butler have the last laugh against his former team?
The Patriots hope to have RB Sony Michel and TE Rob Gronkowski fit again, while Titans RB Dion Lewis and QB Marcus Mariota will hope to make enough plays to keep things interesting.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
For bettors, Week 10 is all about which teams will be able to cover lofty handicaps, as there are quite a few mismatches. This is another contest in similar vein, with the surging Chargers (6-2) at the floundering Raiders (1-7), and the visitors are asked to concede 8.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 17/20.
Raiders were terrible in defeat by the San Francisco 49ers last Thursday and while they have had a few extra days to recover, there will be no respite from Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and company. Rivers, in particular, shows no signs of slowing down. This will be the passer’s 201st consecutive regular-season start and he appears as accurate as he has ever been.
Chargers have been rotating seven defensive linemen and the committee approach is working as they are consistently getting pressure on opposing QBs, so this could be another trying game for Derek Carr.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Seahawks need to run the ball to be able to set up the passing game, but it might not be so easy against the Rams, who are coming off their first loss of the season.
Defensively, the Seahawks will key in on Todd Gurley, but the running back will get enough yards to leave things open for Rams’ receivers Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp.
The Seahawks (4-4) have lost three of their last four trips to the Rams and while they kept it close in a 33-31 loss last month in Seattle, the Rams are considered 9.5-point favourites on the handicap at odds of 10/11.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
This is another game with a big spread to ponder. The Dolphins won a clunker against the Jets to move to 5-4 on the year, while the Packers (3-4-1) are desperate for a win to keep them in contention in the NFC North, following a defeat by the New England Patriots.
Dolphins may have won four of their last six meetings in Green Bay, but they are ripe for a fall here as 8.5-point underdogs on the handicap, with the Packers at 17/20 to cover that number.
Nothing has convinced Miami fans that Brock Osweiler is anything but an average NFL QB at best, and while he has played relatively well in relief of Ryan Tannehill, he is prone to making glaring mistakes and throwing into coverage when pressured. Some bettors think that taking the home team to cover the number is one of the safer bets of the week.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles are coming off a bye with a new receiver in Golden Tate, who arrives from the Detroit Lions. He had a big game against Dallas in Week 4, so should be able to take advantage, particularly since the visitors enter this NFC East clash off a short week.
Cowboys are still struggling to mount much offense and unless they can get Ezekiel Elliott going on the ground, they will struggle to gain a sixth win in seven trips to Philly, who are well rested following their trip to London.
The Cowboys are on offer at Evens in receipt of 6.5 points on the Genting Casino NFL handicap, while the Eagles can be supported at 4/7 giving up 3.5 points. They are 1/3 on the Moneyline.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The change at the QB position worked a treat last week for the 49ers (2-7). Unheralded Nick Mullens, who produced a 262-yard, three-touchdown debut in a 34-3 rout of the Raiders last week, is set to start for the 49ers. They used pre-snap motion on 18 of Mullens’ 22 drop-backs, a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s coaching ability, since it forces a defense to reveal its coverage schemes. He also faked a hand-off on 45 per cent of his passes and rarely had to come off his first read as a result. For now, this is Mullens’ team, but he is still adjusting to the pace of the NFL and is likely to make errors once there is more tape to study.
The Giants (1-7) should have a refreshed Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr after their bye week, but this is long road trip and they have lost six of their last nine in San Francisco. There has been fierce criticism of Eli Manning, with many believing the quarterback’s skills are in decline. What better way than to answer those critics with a big performance on what is hardly a stellar Monday Night Football match-up.
While the 49ers are 8/13 Moneyline favourites, there may be a few who think the Giants in receipt of 2.5 points at odds of Evens is the value play. Check out all the markets for every NFL game here.
Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
