12 Jun 2019
Week 12 of the NFL season is off to an early start with three Thanksgiving Day games on Thursday, with the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions a tasty appetiser for Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, and the Atlanta Falcons at the New Orleans Saints. We take a look at all three games, providing quick hits and top trends.
CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS
Long-time NFC North and Thanksgiving Day rivals, the Bears and Lions have squared off 16 times on Turkey Day since 1934, with the teams each winning eight of those games.
Chicago top the division with a 7-3 record, having out-lasted Minnesota on Sunday night, while the Lions held on for a surprising 20-19 come-from-behind home win over the Carolina Panthers.
The form guide for this clash is fresh, with the Bears having beaten the Lions 34-22 at Soldier Field just two weeks ago, yet Chicago aims to snap a streak of five consecutive losses in meetings at Detroit.
The Genting Casino NFL odds favour the Bears, who are 4/7 to win on the Moneyline, with the Lions at 13/10.
Lions QB Matt Stafford was sacked six times and picked off twice in that defeat two weeks ago, and he has been sacked 29 times already this year. The offensive line could not cope with Khalil Mack, who has revitalised the Bears’ defense since his arrival from Oakland. He recorded two sacks in the win and he now has eight for the year.
Stafford is having a good season, for all that. He has a 66.3 per cent completion rate, which is the second-best tally in his 10-year career, and over the past four games he has averaged 25 completions and more than 250 passing yards per game.
You can only beat what is put in front of you, as the saying goes, and Chicago have ridden their luck a little bit this season. They get lucky again, as an injury is likely to keep Detroit running back Kerryon Johnson on the sidelines. He accounted for two of the Lions’ TDs at Chicago, but suffered a knee sprain against Carolina.
Chicago’s defense is predicated to stopping the run, ranking first in the NFL, and boasting the third-best overall in the league.
The Bears, who are on a four-game winning streak, are considered 7/10 shots to successfully concede 2.5 points on the Genting Casino American Football handicap, with the Lions at 4/7 in receipt of a 5.5-point start. Yet the Bears have covered the handicap just twice in the last eight trips to Detroit, while the Lions have covered the spread in four of their last five Thanksgiving Day games.
Pressure up front means opposing QBs are hurried and prone to making errors. That is largely why the Bears lead the league in takeaways (27) and turnover margin (+13).
Given that the Lions are still in with a chance at a wild card spot despite their 4-6 record, and given their home form has been good, with wins against New England, Green Bay and Carolina, there will be some who think that they may keep things close. To do that, they may need a fast start and any points on their opening drive would be welcome. It is 4/1 that they open with a field goal.
Look for the Lions to try and keep the Bears’ defense off balance with plenty of hurry-up and no-huddle offense.
Chicago has a minor question over the fitness of QB Mitchell Trubisky, who has a right shoulder injury according to the official report, although he is expected to start. He threw for a career-high 355 yards against the Lions in their first meeting.
The Bears rank sixth in scoring offense (29.4 points per game), while Trubisky ranks second among all quarterbacks with 363 rushing yards, and he is completing 65.4 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His back-up is Chase Daniel, who has not attempted a pass since 2016.
However, Daniel was with Bears’ rookie head coach Matt Nagy in Kansas City, so there is a comfort level should he need to be called upon.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Last weekend proved pivotal in these two teams’ seasons. In a spooky injury coincidence, Washington lost their QB Alex Smith on the same day as they lost legendary passer Joe Theismann 33 years earlier.
The injury happened on the same date (November 18), it was the same score (23-21), they had the same yards-per-attempt (5.0), injured the same leg (right – broken tibia and fibula), they were both injured on the third sack of the game and Romeo Crennel was on the sidelines for both games (as a Giants assistant in 1985, and now as the Houston Texans defensive coordinator). One can only hope that this injury does not end his career as it did to Theismann.
The Redskins signed Mark Sanchez to back up Colt McCoy, which tells you all you need to know about NFL owners black-balling former San Francisco passer Colin Kaepernick. He was not even considered.
Injuries aside, the Redskins and Cowboys are fighting for first place in the NFC East, following Dallas’ 22-19 win with a last-gasp field goal in Atlanta on Sunday and Washington’s home loss to the Texans.
McCoy’s first pass was a nine-yard TD strike, but he managed to complete just five of his other 11 attempts against the Texans.
Dallas were beaten 20-17 in Washington in Week 7, when running back Ezekiel Elliott was held to 33 yards rushing and nine yards receiving. Yet in the last two weeks, he has amassed 388 yards in games against the Falcons and Eagles.
The Cowboys are 2/7 Genting Casino Moneyline favourites, thanks largely to Smith’s injury, combined with the poor record the Redskins have in Dallas, where they have won just five times in their last 22 visits. Indeed, they are usually stuffed on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, having lost five of their last six Turkey-Day trips there since 1978.
Dallas sits with a bang-average 5-5 record and with games upcoming against New Orleans, Philadelphia and a surging Indianapolis, a win here would be most welcome. They close with clashes against lowly Tampa and the New York Giants, so the playoffs and a potential division title is still possible.
Washington still has to play Philadelphia (twice) and tough trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee loom, as well as a clash with the Giants on the schedule, but they are 13/5 to win in Dallas.
It will be good to see veteran running back Adrian Peterson in the spotlight again. He totalled 107 yards against the Cowboys in the first meeting, and will need similar production to keep things interesting.
However, with lingering questions over their interior defensive line and a growing injury list, it is little wonder the Cowboys are considered 8.5-point favourites on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 11/10. They can also be backed at 11/8 to successfully concede 11.5 points.
ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
For all the ridiculous scoring on show in Los Angeles on Monday night, with the Rams defeating the Chiefs 54-51 in an instant classic, anyone who saw the New Orleans Saints dismantle the Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday would find it hard to argue against then being the most balanced team in the NFL right now.
As it stands, the Saints are 14/5 to win the Super Bowl, with plenty of money coming for them in the last week, while the Rams, who were 10/3 favourites on Tuesday morning, now second favourites at 3/1.
Another heart-breaking, close loss for the Falcons saw their record fall to 4-6. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that they can still make the playoffs, with games against Arizona and Tampa Bay to come, yet they also have to face Baltimore and must travel to Green Bay and Carolina. If they do make the post-season, it will be heard-earned.
The Saints’ 48-7 demolition of the Eagles means layers have them as a two-touchdown favourite over the Falcons, whom they beat 43-37 in overtime in Week 3.
Atlanta’s defense has been plagued by injuries all season and while QB Matt Ryan has been outstanding again, the Falcons have come out on the wrong side of some close games.
Traditionally, these two NFC South foes play tight games, and the underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
If Ryan posts similar numbers to his 374 yards and five touchdowns without an interception in the last meeting, and receiver Julio Jones extends his streak to six consecutive 100-yard games, then the Falcons may keep within the spread. They are in receipt of 14.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap at odds of 8/11. It is 17/20 that the Saints, who are averaging 48 points in the last three weeks, successfully concede 11.5 points on the handicap.
Drew Brees, 39, has thrown 28 TDs and accounted for one turnover as the Saints seek a tenth straight victory and a ninth straight handicap cover.
Given their points-fest in Week 3, it is no surprise to see the points total at 60.5 points, and with the Falcons now in must-win mode, there may be takers of the 19/20 odds for that line to be eclipsed.
The Saints’ defense ranks 27th of the 32 teams against the pass (conceding 280 yards per game), while the Falcons rank 29th in overall defense (giving up 405 yards per game).
Should middle linebacker Deion Jones make his long-awaited return from injury, Atlanta might be a lot more solid, but they need to run the ball much better than they did in their last meeting in order to keep Brees off the field. The Saints’ run defense is allowing only 77.9 rushing yards per game, however, and the killer stat may be this: Falcons have not won back-to-back meetings in NewOrleans since 1998-99, so pulling off a 5/1 upset might not be in the stars.
Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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