8 Oct 2019
NETHERLANDS-NORTHERN IRELAND ODDS HERE
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When the groups were drawn, Northern Ireland could have been forgiven for assuming their chances of making it to the Euros were practically over before a ball was kicked, with Germany and a revived Netherlands side in their section.
However, victory in their first four outings has given them some hope, though there’s a long way to go and a top two finish will look increasingly difficult if they can’t secure a result in this fixture.
Although Michael O’Neil’s men have managed narrow victories in five of their six matches in 2019, these came over Estonia (twice), Belarus (twice) and in a friendly with Luxembourg.
None of those teams are in the same stratosphere as the Netherlands, and the 2-0 defeat they suffered against Germany a month ago is more instructive of their chances here.
Netherlands To Win To Nil
Indeed, Northern Ireland have struggled to score many at the sharp end, especially when facing teams of real quality. They’ve lost all eight matches up against Germany, Switzerland, Croatia, Chile and Uruguay (all of whom are currently ranked within FIFA’s top 20) since 2014, with those easily the best sides they’ve encountered over this period.
They netted just the solitary goal across these fixtures, which itself was a stoppage-time consolation effort, losing 1-0 and 2-0 on three occasions each, leaving the win to nil as banker material considering the defensive talent the Dutch will have on display.
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In fact, when excluding meetings with heavyweights Germany, Portugal, England, France and Italy, the Netherlands have won without conceding in five of their seven matches since June 2017. They also managed wins to nil over both Germany and France in the Nations League, as well as Portugal in just Ronald Koeman’s second game in charge.
That defensive resolve should hardly be surprising with a quality centre-back partnership of Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and Juve’s Matthijs de Ligt, while they’re backed up by an able and experienced goalkeeper in Valencia and former Barcelona shot stopper Jasper Cillessen.
Netherlands To Win 2-0
Although it’s virtually impossible to expect anything other than a routine win for the hosts, there’s good reason to think Northern Ireland can avoid a humiliation and keep the score down.
The visitors have conceded in excess of two goals in just three of their last 56 matches dating back to October 2013, as 70% of these games saw fewer than three goals in total.
Given O’Neill’s charges have consistently lost by 1-0 or 2-0 scorelines in recent years up against some of the best teams in the world, we’d expect that to be replicated here.
We’re inclined to back the larger of those two scorelines though. The Netherlands haven’t struggled for output, scoring at least twice in six of their last eight outings over 90 minutes, including 4-0 wins over Belarus and Estonia and a 4-2 success away in Germany.
However, their four recent ding-dongs with bitter rivals Die Mannschaft have all been high-scoring affairs, while Northern Ireland can muster a better defensive effort than the likes of Belarus and Estonia.
Netherlands 2-0 Correct Score At 5/1
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