10 Jun 2022
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Austria v France
It’s been a poor start for defending champions France as they’ve managed just one point from their opening two outings against Denmark (2-1 defeat) and Croatia (1-1 draw), and on that basis this may not be as straightforward a victory as some may think.
Austria look improved in their two outings so far. A comprehensive 3-0 victory over Croatia was followed up by a narrow 2-1 defeat to a strong Denmark side, despite having over twice as many shots as their visitors on the night. In fact, no side has had more shots than Austria (31) in this group so far and considering the quality on display that’s quite a surprise.
We’d expect France to bounce back here, though confidence can’t be high after how this group has started, though admittedly a host of their star names were rested for the Croatia stalemate, with Benzema, Mbappe, Griezmann, Kounate, Kounde and Kante among a host of big names not starting the match.
We’d expect the majority of them to start here, which will give them more firepower, though in Austria we can see Ralph Rangnick’s side posing a challenge, and the value is siding with the hosts on the handicap.
AUSTRIA +1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP
Denmark v Croatia
It’s been a tale of two late winners for Denmark so far who have started with a 100% record with successive 2-1 victories. The first, over France, was a shock win having gone a goal down early in the second half, though Austria put up more of a threat than expected. That’s just two defeats from their last 15 matches in 90 minutes, with one coming in a friendly against the Netherlands and the other against Scotland when they’d already qualified for the World Cup.
Croatia don’t look like the side that reached the last World Cup final anymore, though they did put on a strong display to take a draw against an, albeit weakened, French side earlier in the week. With that said, it’s now just one defeat in 14 outings for the Croatians over 90 minutes since they went down 1-0 to England in the opening game of the Euros. They’ve not faced anyone of real quality though in that run and aside from a draw with Spain (which they lost in extra-time), the only decent side they’ve faced was Austria when they lost 3-0.
They also have a poor Nations League record with just two victories from 12 outings, conceding two or more in 75% of those matches, and Denmark don’t show any signs of letting up, scoring two or more in 11 of those last 15 games.
DENMARK TO WIN
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