30 Oct 2019
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Recent Form
Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl will be mightily relieved his side avoided a similar scoreline to the 9-0 drubbing they were handed by Leicester when they faced Man City in the League Cup on Tuesday night.
Jack Stephens’ header even keeping them to within two goals of the Champions, though they were a little considerate it only finished 3-1, with City totalling 19 shots and boasting 77% possession in an expectantly dominant display, and Southampton will have to improve drastically if they want to get anything out of this next game.
Indeed, the head-to-heads don’t make for pretty reading if you’re a Saints fan, as Pep Guardiola’s men have won six of seven unbeaten meetings in all competitions under his tutelage, including each of the last six, scoring 18 goals in those six wins and so it’s no surprise there’s little value to be had in backing them in the outright.
Both Teams To Score
While previous meetings have favoured the Citizens, interestingly both teams have found the net in seven of the last nine, and each of the last five at Etihad.
While the hosts were dominant in their recent midweek meeting, Southampton still managed five shots in the game, and looked a serious threat at corners.
With Nicolas Otamendi and John Stones the likely centre-back pairing for the hosts seeing as Aymeric Laporte and makeshift defender Rodri will both miss this clash with respective knee and thigh injuries, they definitely have a mistake in them.
Indeed, when those two are paired together in the heart of defence their goals conceded per game rises from just 0.67 to 1.13 as they form the leakiest defensive combination in the City ranks.
Furthermore, Southampton have managed to find the net in a whopping 27 of the 33 league games they’ve played under Hasenhuttl, so we’re happy to get behind the both teams to score market at the prices.
Manchester City To Win 3-1
Given the 1.13 gpg conceded when deploying both Stones and Otamendi we’ll also have a punt on the correct score.
Indeed, three of the last five league victories with that centre-back pairing have finished exactly 3-1, as has both the last two meetings between these sides in all competitions.
In fact, the most frequent result Guardiola’s men have had at this stadium over the last 12 and a bit months has been that same scoreline, with five of their 15 victories finishing that way.
Meanwhile, the visitors have netted exactly once in six of their last seven and so we’ll have half a point on a repeat of their League Cup result.
0.5 Pts: Man City To Win 3-1 At 11/1
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