6 Dec 2019
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It was a timely victory for Man Utd as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer looked to be heading into his final few days at the club prior to their victory over Jose Mourinho’s Spurs side.
That result also sees them jump up to within two points of fifth-placed Wolves, but with a trip to the Etihad coming up it could be as good as they get for a short while.
Man City have been disappointing by their standards since the beginning of November though, going just W2-D3-L1 from their past six outings across all competitions and it may be a good time to take them on.
Liverpool got the better of the Citizens at Anfield in that run, while stalemates against Newcastle, Atalanta and Shakhtar is certainly below the very high bar that they set for themselves.
In fact, the Reds have built up an 11-point gap to City at the head of the table and you feel it’s going to take some monumental effort to claw that back.
However, they did what they could midweek as they thumped Burnley 4-1 on the road and they’ll be extremely difficult for Solskjaer’s men to take down.
The Citizens are at almost exactly the same price as they were for this fixture last year here (1/3) and seeing as they won that one 3-1 we wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of that.
However, you have to acknowledge the fact that the hosts are certainly not performing to the same levels as they have been for the last few seasons, but then again, the same argument could be made for Man Utd as well.
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Man Utd +1 Goal Half Time Handicap
The Red Devils have never been as big a price as they are for a Manchester derby than they are for this weekend (since our odds data began in 2000) and for that reason we’re struggling to get behind Pep Guardiola’s men at the prices in the outright.
United have a respectable record against the better sides they’ve faced this term – Chelsea (twice), Wolves, Leicester, Arsenal, Liverpool & Spurs – winning four of their seven unbeaten outings across all competitions, as they went in at the break 1-0 up in six of those and 1-1 in the only other and so we fancy their chances in the opening 45 minutes.
By contrast, City have only been leading at the break in three of their last nine league outings. That includes one of four at home, as Jurgen Klopp’s men even managed to be two goals up already at that point when they faced each other at Anfield. Meanwhile, City failed to take a half-time lead against much weaker teams Everton, Villa, Southampton and Newcastle, so they look worth taking on in this market.
Man Utd To Win Or Draw
The one concern over the full 90 minutes for us would be the visitors’ form on the road. They’ve gone W3-D4-L4 from their 11 trips across all competitions so far, drawing at Wolves, Southampton, AZ Alkmaar and Sheffield Utd, while they lost to West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Astana.
A resounding theme seems to be their lack of creativity and resolve against the weaker teams, but with Scott McTominay back in the side again, who alongside Marcus Rashford looked to be the difference against Spurs, they’ll fancy their chances.
Indeed, when taking the lead on the road, Man Utd have gone W55-D11-L4 from their 70 such league outings against all teams since 2012/13 and so they have to be worth having a little flutter on in the double chance.
0.5 Pts: Manchester United To Win Or Draw At 11/5
Manchester United +1 Goal Half Time Handicap At 19/20
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