1 Apr 2022
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Liverpool have the chance to go two points above Manchester City with a win over Watford, and Jurgen Klopp’s men have been making a charge up the table ever since they won 4-0 at home against Arsenal back in November.
Since and including that game, they have a record of W15-D2-L1 with the surprise loss coming against a weakened Leicester City side that was plagued with injuries.
The Hornets are currently three points away from safety, with Everton one place above them in 17th and also holding two games in hand, so they have a tough task ahead of them if they want to avoid relegation this year.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the London side because they have won two of their last six, which is a third of their total wins this year, so they may be on an uptick of form and have shown in the past that they can cause an upset against Liverpool.
The head-to-head aspect of this fixture is to be expected with Liverpool dominating the majority of games (W7-D1-L1 since 2016/17). The only loss that Liverpool incurred was a 3-0 defeat at Vicarage Road, when the Reds were trying to go invincible in the 2019/20 season, with this the first of three losses for Liverpool in that Premier League season.
The 3-3 draw that occurred in 2017 was a momentous game due to the high-scoring nature and the fact that it was Mo Salah’s debut and first goal for the club, that he has now scored 115 goals for in the Premier League alone.
Prediction
Both teams to score doesn’t seem like a good market to be betting on this fixture, with only three of those nine meetings since 2016/17 seeing that market land, and none of the last six.
Moreover, BTTS has only come off in 36% of Liverpool’s home clashes and 40% of Watford’s away fixtures this season.
The market we really want to focus on is Liverpool win-to-nil and this is because of the rate that this outcome occurs when Liverpool play a team far worse than them.
11 out of the 18 games that Liverpool have played against sides ranked 10th-20th have resulted in Liverpool win-to-nil and seven of those eleven wins have had over 2.5 Liverpool goals in them as well.
This bet has also came off in six of the last eight games that the two sides have played against each other.
PREDICTION:
LIVERPOOL TO WIN TO NIL
OR
LIVERPOOL TO WIN TO NIL AND OVER 2.5 GOALS
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