25 Jun 2020
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Six of Burnley’s last seven since late February have seen fewer than three goals, with three of the last four resulting in 1-0 victories over Watford, Burnley and West Ham.
They did lose 5-0 to Man City last month at the Etihad, though that was their first game back after the enforced covid-19 break, while Pep Guardiola’s men have also thrashed Liverpool (4-0) and Newcastle (5-0) since the restart.
The Reds clearly haven’t been at their effervescent best since effectively wrapping up the title prior to the break.
They’re just W5-D1-L5 across all competitions since mid-February when including extra-time, though when excluding a pair of clashes with Atletico Madrid, as well as domestic encounters with Chelsea and Man City, they’re a much better W5-D1-L1 over this period.
They still found the net at least twice in each victory, while the two outings where they failed to pick up maximum points both came away from Anfield, so although not firing on all cylinders they remain a potent force.
The top five in the table unsurprisingly hold the best offensive records in the league and against such teams, Burnley have seen a minimum of three goals in seven of nine matches this season.
In fact, eight of 10 clashes with top-five finishers last term went the same way, while that record is even more stark when limiting results to those against dominant duo City and Liverpool over this period.
They’ve lost all seven such matches, trailing at the break in five of them as five also saw a minimum of four strikes, with Burnley conceding at least three times in all but one of these.
Both Teams To Score
Burnley’s clean sheet at West Ham midweek owed a lot to Nick Pope’s heroics between the sticks and another shutout is unlikely here.
Captain Ben Mee has missed their last two games and with club-record signing Ben Gibson falling out with staff before being shipped off on loan, that should mean Kevin Long partners James Tarkowski at the back.
However, Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in the last six game he’s started, with the 29-year-old having spent the majority of his career in the lower leagues.
Jay Rodriguez To Score Anytime
Liverpool were hardly watertight in their midweek trip to Brighton either, conceding one from a wide cross and could easily have shipped another via the same route.
Burnley relish those kinds of chances and although Ashley Barnes remains sidelined, Sean Dyche has top scorer Chris Wood available again, while Jay Rodriguez has performed well when called upon and actually has a better goals per minute record than Barnes this season in any case.
Both Wood and Rodriguez are excellent in aerial contests, but it’s the latter we fancy in the goalscorer markets with Wood only managing 21 and 32 minutes in his two games since returning from injury.
0.5pts: Jay Rodriguez To Score Anytime At 16/5
LIVERPOOL V BURNLEY ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 8/7/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
