30 Oct 2019
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Recent Form
A hard fought 0-0 draw away to Sheffield Wednesday in the Yorkshire derby last time out saw Leeds slip to third in the table as Preston overturned a two-goal deficit to take all three points hosting Blackburn.
That means it remains extremely congested at the top of the table, with only three points separating 2nd and 11th. QPR sit down in 8th place, despite only being two points off the automatic promotion places, so whoever comes off worse in this one could see themselves tumble right down the ladder.
Under 2.5 Goals
Results for Marcelo Bielsa’s charges have become largely unpredictable with teams tending to play with a low block when they come to Elland Road and the single question asked of whether or not Leeds can break them down over the 90 minutes, though this has brought about an obvious trend.
The W3-D2-L1 record they currently hold at home this campaign has not seen either side score more than the solitary goal, with every game finishing either 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1, so it’s difficult to see why ‘Overs’ is by far the shorter price here.
An argument could be made for the fact QPR have seen the highest average goals per game in the division at a whopping 3.6, which in turn sees them with the worst defence apart from rock-bottom side Barnsley.
The Whites, however, have the lowest total goals average in the league at all venues, seeing just 1.8 gpg and at now back at home where their average is just 0.5 gpg, we expect them to dictate play.
While we don’t expect the Rs to provide too much of a goal threat visiting the best defence in the league, we can see their leaky back line conceding at least one, though with Birmingham the only side with a worse output than Leeds in the top-14, we can see another narrow victory on the cards, so the ‘Unders’ market looks extremely good value.
We’d also give a slight edge to the hosts for this encounter although at the current prices we’ll avoid them in the outright.
Leeds To Win 2-0
Although no team has managed two goals on this pitch so far this season, only Barnsley have conceded more than Mark Warburton’s men this term, and with Bielsa’s men averaging 15.7 shots per game at Elland Road it’s remarkable they haven’t chalked up a few more goals.
We’re therefore inclined to think they’ll better that average this weekend and find the net more than once, especially since they managed that under current management in over half their matches here last term, so the correct score appeals at the prices.
0.5 pts: Correct Score 2-0 At 13/2
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