7 Nov 2019
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Marcelo Bielsa’s charges went through the motions and ran out 2-0 winners against QPR in a routine home victory, placing them third in an extremely congested top of the table.
The clean sheet keeps Leeds’ defensive record far and beyond any other team in the division, with their eight goals conceded five fewer than next best: Forest and Brentford.
Blackburn themselves saw off promotion candidates Sheffield Wednesday with a 2-1 win at Ewood Park through a last gasp double after the 88th minute overturning Jacob Murphy’s late opener.
Leeds’ victory means they have not conceded a home goal since they faced Derby on 21st September, keeping three consecutive clean sheets.
However, under Tony Mowbray, Rovers have managed to find the net in an amazing 15 of their 17 away outings in 2019, averaging 1.53 goals per game in that time and only Cardiff and Luton have a greater output in the bottom half of the table than the former Premier League champions.
It’s possible the Whites will buckle here, so we’ll steer clear of any market centred around Blackburn’s sharp end.
The match goals market offers up a similar contrast between these two. The hosts have seen fewer than three match goals in each of their last eight fixtures at Elland Road, while the visitors have witnessed a minimum of three strikes in 13 of their last 16 trips.
While we feel Bielsa’s men will dominate proceedings and have the lion’s share of possession, and their league high average of 16.5 shots per game implies output, it’s hard to fathom how few of these efforts have found the back of the net, so again we’re happy to move past the total goals market.
Blackburn +2 Handicap
Instead, the handicap market looks more of a shoo-in. Indeed, pre the QPR result last weekend none of the Whites’ last 11 home fixtures had been decided by more than a single goal, with neither side scoring more than just the one in any of the last seven.
Meanwhile, the Rovers have covered the two-goal handicap line in 12 of their last 15 road games, as well as all 13 meetings with Leeds across all competitions both home and away since 2012/13.
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