12 Jun 2019
Sunday’s League One Playoff Final at Wembley has the potential to be an enthralling spectacle.
The race to join promoted Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Championship rests between Rotherham United, who finished fourth, and third-placed Shrewsbury Town, who were some nine points superior.
Each side won at the other’s ground this term with Rotherham avenging their 2-1 loss when winning 1-0 at Montgomery Waters Meadow in February.
Shrewsbury have a fair recent record against the Millers, having lost just twice in the last nine meetings and have scored at least once in 11 of the last 13 clashes. Oddly, they have drawn a blank in their last two home meetings with Rotherham.
The Millers have managed to win back-to-back meetings with Shrewsbury just once since 1993 and their League One playoff odds are 13/10 with Genting Bet to win the in 90 minutes. Rotherham are are 8/11 to be promoted.
The Shrews, who scored 13 fewer league goals than Rotherham, but who conceded 20 fewer, reached the Playoff Final beating Charlton home and away, with a single goal enough each time. Rotherham, whose only defeat in their last eight games came at Plymouth, saw off Scunthorpe 4-2 on aggregate to reach Wembley.
Who will win?
Those who took Shrewsbury’s League One title odds of 50/1 at the start of the season will hope for a bumper pay-day. And it is perhaps surprising that the Shrews are underdogs as they have a decent historical record over Paul Warne’s side.
However, some cynics will say the Shews are already preparing for another League One campaign, having installed safe standing areas – and at present, only clubs outside the Premier League and Championship have permission to do so. Bettors will have noted that in eight of the last 12 meetings, both sides found the net, and it is 17/20 that both register at least once in 90 minutes.
Plenty of historic trends point to a Shrewsbury win, yet given the close nature of their clashes in recent times, this may well be settled in extra time or after penalties. Shrewsbury’s League One promotion odds are 21/20, safe-standing or otherwise.
Millers off the mark?
Rotherham, whose League One odds at the start of the season were 20/1, have scored first in each of their last six matches, with midfielder Will Vaulks netting on three occasions, and they were desperately unlucky to lose in injury time at Plymouth, their sole defeat in their last eight games. Shrewsbury’s form had been a little patchy entering the playoffs, having won one of their previous six league games, and they found the net on more than one occasion only once in their last eight games.
It often pays to go against the grain, however. So, given that six of the last eight meetings produced more than two goals in total, the historic form might trump the teams’ recent goalscoring form and putting faith in Over 2.5 total goals scored at 11/10 might represent a little value.
