6 Nov 2019
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Recent Form
Since losing 2-1 in the reverse fixture a fortnight ago, Lazio have recovered well with three consecutive victories to lift them into the top four domestically.
That includes a 4-0 triumph over Torino in the only one of these fixtures that came on home turf, as well as a 2-1 win away at a struggling Milan outfit.
Home form has been vital for Simone Inzaghi’s men with all four of their defeats this season coming on the road, while at the Stadio Olimpico they’ve won four of six unbeaten matches, with the two stalemates coming against strong outfits Roma and Atalanta.
We can certainly understand why Lazio start as favourites then, especially given they were in reality the better team at Celtic Park, but not to the extent that the odds would suggest.
Whereas they sit in third place in Group E having lost two matches so far, Celtic lead the group having won two of three unbeaten games, though to put it mildly the Scottish champions haven’t experienced the best of results on their travels in Europe in recent times.
From the group stages onwards, Celtic have won just three of 52 road trips in the Europa League or Champions League since 2003/04.
Limiting this to the start of last season, the Hoops have gone W2-D1-L6, though their hosts have lost six of their last seven outings in this competition and there are better value alternatives to backing the Eagles outright on its own.
Over 2.5 Goals
Since the start of the 2017/18 season, 15 of Lazio’s 23 Europa League matches have featured at least three goals.
Seven of eight home matches since the knockout rounds in 2017/18 have seen a minimum of three strikes, with the Italian outfit unable to register a single clean sheet despite winning five of them.
They’ve won three of their last five European matches at this venue by an exact score of 2-1, which looks worth a punt when considering their games have typically had goals in them.
Lazio To Win 2-1
Each of Lazio’s last eight matches across all tournaments have contained at least three, while half of these saw four or more, with the Italians beating Rennes, Fiorentina and Milan by that same 2-1 outcome.
Moreover, Neil Lennon’s men certainly possess enough firepower to make their way onto the scoresheet having registered 19 goals in their past five outings, including an impressive 4-0 triumph away at one of the better teams in Scotland, Aberdeen.
Lazio 2-1 Correct Score At 15/2
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