11 Oct 2019
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In the final Pool stage fixture of this World Cup, hosts Japan will go toe-to-toe with seven-time quarter finalists Scotland for a place in the knockout stages.
While victory for Ireland over Samoa will be enough to see them progress from this pool, these two will have to wait until Sunday evening (locally) to find out their fate.
The Scots laid down a marker on Wednesday with a 61-0 victory over the Russians, and although the Japanese will provide a much sterner test, they’ll be full of confidence after that one.
You could be forgiven for thinking the Cherry Blossoms have a massive advantage due to the short turnaround Scotland have between their final two fixtures, but Gregor Townsend rung the changes for that clash, making 14 changes from the side that saw off Samoa in preparation for Sunday’s showdown.
The Six Nations side take this tie on head-to-heads alone as they have won all six encounters this century, so we can see why they’re down as narrow favourites for this one.
However, Japan were ranked outside the top 10 in the world at the time of all of those encounters and were as far down as 18th for the first, so we’re inclined to give them a tad more credit now that they sit a place above Scotland in 8th and in their home tournament.
Japan Against Tier One Nations
Japan have a respectable record against the Tier 1 sides, when excluding New Zealand, England and Australia, all of whom are far superior to Scotland, as they’ve only lost 10 of their last 16 matches, beating the likes of Italy (twice), Wales, South Africa and Ireland along the way, while they also drew with France in Paris, so they’re no stranger to an upset.
Indeed, Scotland against the current top 10 when excluding those same dominant three sides have lost 10 of their 13 outings on the road since October 2013 and they continue to struggle away from the fortress that is Murrayfield.
The home crowd acted like a 16th man for Jamie Joseph’s men against Ireland, and we expect them to be in full voice again and get behind their team all the way, so we like the look of them at the prices.
Japan To Win 1-12 Points
While we’re behind the Japanese to clinch it, we expect an incredibly close contest.
Indeed, three of the five Japanese wins against Tier 1 sides have come by a margin of seven points or fewer, while their 15 point victory over Wales back in 2013 was thanks to a much weakened Welsh outfit who had 15 key players and their head coach Warren Gatland made unavailable due to the Lions tour, so the 1-12 point winning margin looks appealing.
JAPAN V SCOTLAND TEAMS
Japan: 15 William Tupou, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Kenki Fukuoka, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 6 Michael Leitch (c), 5 James Moore, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Isileli Nakajima, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Uwe Helu, 20 Hendrik Tui, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Ryohei Yamanaka
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Darcy Graham, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell
Replacements: 16 Stuart McInally, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 George Horne, 22 Pete Horne, 23 Blair Kinghorn
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