10 Oct 2019
Italy Recent Form
It’s been plain sailing for the Italians in Group J as they’ve won all six matches, averaging three goals per game and conceding just 0.5. With fixtures against Liechtenstein and Armenia to come, top spot is virtually secured, and with home advantage in this clash there’s little to suggest the procession is about to experience a hiccup.
Failure to qualify for the last World Cup was treated as something akin to a national disaster in Italy, but since taking the hot seat, Roberto Mancini has steadied the ship.
A solid Nations League performance saw them maintain their League A status, while the Azzurri have come out of the blocks flying in the current campaign, including a comfortable 3-0 win in the reverse of this fixture.
Greece Recent Form
Greece are moving in the opposite direction, finishing third in a group featuring Finland, Hungary and Estonia in the Nations League.
Moreover, they’re currently just W1-D2-L5 from their last eight matches now, with the victory coming away over minnows Liechtenstein, against whom they also drew in their most recent outing in Athens.
That latest result would suggest the change in management prior to the last international break hasn’t altered the picture, so the question shouldn’t be whether they lose, but by what margin.
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Italy To Win 3-1
In that regard, Greece can be hopeful of avoiding a humiliation. Six of their nine defeats since the start of 2018 have come by just the solitary strike, as that 3-0 loss to their opponents here was the only time a bigger margin than two goals was recorded.
However, the last time they played someone approaching the standards offered by the Italians, they were beaten 4-1 over two legs in their World Cup play-off with Croatia, as the eventual finalists eased their foot off the gas in the goalless second leg.
The Italians aren’t exactly known for smashing teams though, with leads typically protected by sensible game management rather than seeking a further extension. Excluding the teams that are significantly above or below Greece in FIFA’s world rankings (Spain, Croatia, Sweden, Denmark, Malta and Liechtenstein), Italy have won 18 of 23 unbeaten qualifiers since the 2014 World Cup campaign. 10 of those victories came by just the single strike and seven were by a margin of two goals, with the most common scorelines 2-1 (five occasions), 3-1 (four), 1-0 (four) and 2-0 (three).
Italy To Win And Both Teams To Score
There’s further reason to think that the Greeks can at least keep this encounter tight given veteran captain Giorgio Chiellini is missing through injury.
Excluding results against big guns England, France, Argentina, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Germany and Uruguay, as well as minnows Liechtenstein, the Azzurri have kept just three clean sheets from eight matches without the centre-back since June 2016.
That includes both games in the last round of international fixtures as they won away at Armenia and Finland (3-1 and 2-1 respectively), which his Juve teammate and full-back Mattia de Sciglio also missed through injury (he’s absent again too). Given Italy’s strong output in the current campaign, the 3-1 correct score appeals at the prices.
05pts Italy 3-1 Correct Score At 12/1
1pt Italy To Win And Both Teams To Score At 11/4
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