25 Sept 2019
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It has been a pretty torrid time in the Italian camp with their only victories coming against Russia and Namibia from their 10 matches since the start of the year, nonetheless getting their World Cup campaign off to a bonus point win over the latter second tier outfit should give them some confidence.
Other than comprehensive thumping’s to England (twice) and France they’ve been respectable in defeat, as they kept themselves to within 13 points of all of Scotland, Ireland, France and Wales in the Six Nations, while they managed an 85-15 thrashing of Russia just last month.
Canada meanwhile have lost 13 of their 19 encounters since the start of 2018, including each of their last five since March this year, while each of their six victories in that period came over tier three opposition.
The Canadians have lost all 11 of their encounters with tier two sides since the start of last year, as four of those were by more than 22 points.
However, of those such sides (USA, Tonga, Fiji, Uruguay and Russia) the Fijians are the only side who can be put in the same bracket as the tier one Azzurri, and in that fixture they succumbed to a 38-13 defeat.
In fact, against the likes of USA, Tonga, Fiji, Romania, Georgia, Samoa and Japan, they’ve lost a staggering 28 of their 30 outings since 2014, as six of the last 10 were by more than 24 points.
Mattia Bellini To Score Anytime
It is the Italians that have the advantage in the head-to-heads too as they’ve won each of their six meeting since 2003, although only two of those in 2004 and 2006 have been by more than nine points and so we’d rather avoid the handicap line.
However, they did average 30 points per game across those six meetings and so we’re expecting there to be some tries scored.
Indeed, seven recent touchdowns against Namibia shows what they’re capable of, while they’ve dotted down as many as 23 times across their last four games, as Mattia Bellini scored an impressive four times across them.
In fact, the winger has six tries from as many Tests dating back to November 2018 and looks the value bet to strike yet again.
Mattia Bellini Anytime Tryscorer At 6/5
ITALY V CANADA TEAMS
Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Giulio Bisegni, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Callum Braley, 8 Braam Steyn, 7 Jake Polledri, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dean Budd (captain), 4 David Sisi, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Andrea Lovotti.
Replacements: 16 Federico Zani, 17 Nicola Quaglio, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Maxime Mbanda, 21 Guglielmo Palazzani, 22 Carlo Canna, 23 Mattia Bellini.
Canada: 15 Patrick Parfrey, 14 Jeff Hassler, 13 Ben Lesage, 12 Nick Blevins, 11 DTH Van Der Merwe, 10 Peter Nelson, 9 Gordon McRorie, 8 Tyler Ardron (captain), 7 Lucas Rumball, 6 Michael Sheppard, 5 Josh Larsen, 4 Conor Keys, 3 Matt Tierney, 2 Eric Howard, 1 Hubert Buydens.
Replacements: 16 Benoit Piffero, 17 Djustice Duru-Sears, 18 Jake Ilnicki, 19 Luke Campbell, 20 Matt Heaton, 21 Jamie Mackenzie, 22 Ciaran Hearn, 23 Andrew Coe.
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