25 Nov 2020
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This will be the 137th meeting between Ireland and Scotland after they both finished second in their respective Autumn Nations Cup groups. Based on total points alone, the Scots proved much better in Group B than their hosts did in Group A, earning three bonus points to go with their two victories and one defeat, but by no means does that make them front runners.
Andy Farrell’s men were second best only to England in Group A, and although they lost to them by an 11-point margin, that did come at Twickenham.
In fact, their only defeats under current management have come outside of Ireland, as they’ve won all five matches at Aviva Stadium since the 2019 World Cup, coming against all of Wales (twice), Italy, Georgia and Scotland themselves.
By contrast, the Scots are known for their vulnerability on the road, losing 22 of their 26 matches against Tier One nations (excluding Italy, Japan and Argentina) outside of their home country since 2013, although they did win the most recent and only such game over the last 10 months against Wales in October.
That record doesn’t bode too well for their chances in this one, but there are signs of improvement under Gregor Townsend and it looks as though their woeful away form has been more than compensated for in the prices already.
Farrell makes six changes to his side that struggled against the aggressive Georgians last weekend, with the likes of crucial figures Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Cian Healy, Peter O’Mahony and Caelan Doris all coming in. That’ll only improve his team, but it’s hardly as if the visitors are short of star quality.
Townsend has also made six changes to his side, with the one of those being debutant Jaco van der Walt coming in to replace Ducan Weir at fly-half after their 22-15 defeat to France a fortnight ago.
That is a brave decision from the ex-Scotland international and we can’t help but think it could be a risky one, while the absence of Hamish Watson from the squad altogether will only weaken them.
Ireland -5.5 First Half Handicap
From a betting perspective, we like the look of the first half market. Indeed, Scotland against those top Tier One nations (excluding Italy) outside of Edinburgh have lost the first half in all seven games since the start of 2019, failing to cover the current 5.5-point handicap in five of those opening halves.
Furthermore, they’ve also failed to cover that in four of six meetings at this stadium since 2012, while Ireland have been ahead by 21, 10 and 13 points in each of their last three fixtures here.
Ireland -5.5 First Half Handicap At 10/11
IRELAND V SCOTLAND ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 04/12/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
