10 Oct 2019
Recent Form
Normal order was resumed when the Irish bounced back from their shock defeat against hosts Japan to run out 35-0 winners over Russia and they now sit in second place, one point ahead of third placed Scotland heading into the final round of fixtures.
As chance would have it, Ireland are in the fortunate position of knowing that a win of any kind here will see them progress to the knockout stages regardless of the outcome of Japan vs Scotland, due to their victory over Gregor Townsend’s men in their opening game, and we fully expect them to deliver just that, weather dependant.
Typhoon Hagibis is on route to Japan although it won’t disrupt Ireland’s final Pool match meaning the Irish need to win with a bonus point if they are to stand any chance of topping the pool.
A decision has yet to be made on the crunch clash with Scotland and Japan, if it is called off the sides will receive two-points each, sending the Scots home and leaving the Japanese winners of the pool regardless of Ireland’s bonus point win.
With a quarterfinal looming for the Irish, a big performance will be demanded by Joe Schmidt against a physical Samoan outfit that will want to sign-off with a win.
Despite getting back to winning ways against Russia, 35 points is a relatively small amount to put on a team ranked 20th in the world, especially since Italy put 85 on them back in August, so a convincing win is needed here to build confidence for the latter rounds.
Ireland -27 Handicap
Indeed, the Irish have covered the current 27-point handicap in nine of their last 12 encounters against non-Tier 1 nations including their last clash with the Pacific Islanders when they ran out 40-9 winners back in 2013.
With a point to prove, both to themselves and their competition, we expect Ireland to get back to their brilliant best and close out the group stages in style against a side who have failed to reach the quarters of this tournament now for six consecutive times.
As expect Joe Schmidt’s men will earn their hard yards in the forwards with their one out passing before they start to swing it out wide.
Of course, they’ll be met with force by this physical Samoan outfit, but the Kiwi coach is a master at wearing teams down in his typical boring fashion, making way for the game to open in the latter stages, which could represent some value in an outside back touching down the last of the game.
However, we’d rather avoid that market and instead just stick for a dominant Ireland victory.
IRELAND V SAMOA TEAMS
Ireland: 15 Jordan Larmour, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Andrew Porter, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Andrew Conway.
Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ah See Tuala, 13 Alapati Leiua, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Ed Fidow, 10 Ulupano Seuteni, 9 Dwayne Polataivao, 8 Jack Lam (captain), 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Chris Vui, 5 Kane Le’aupepe, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Seilala Lam, 1 Logovii Mulipola.
Replacements: 16 Ray Niuia, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Jordan Lay, 19 Piula Faasalele, 20 Josh Tyrell, 21 Pele Cowley, 22 Tusi Pisi, 23 Kieron Fonotia.
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