9 Dec 2019
CHELSEA, AJAX AND DORTMUND ALL TO WIN MAX BET £10
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Lionel Messi ran riot again at the weekend as his hat-trick helped his side to a 5-2 thrashing of Real Mallorca, while a Luis Suarez backheel wowed the home crowd as the Catalans made it six wins on the bounce across all competitions.
Inter were held at home to a goalless stalemate against a tricky Roma outfit, though that point did manage to extend their lead at the top of Serie A thanks to Lazio’s 3-1 victory over Juventus, as the Italian title race starts to heat up.
The attacking talent on display in Lautaro Martinez, Romelu Lukaku, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez is arguably the core reason why the ‘Overs’ market sits at such a short price, though the contrary outcome is what appeals to us here. Whereas Barca have been prolific at times this season, 35 of their 50 goals this term have come at the Camp Nou.
Meanwhile, Uruguayan Suarez is now without an away goal in this competition for over four years, dating back to a 1-1 draw with Roma in September 2015, and this isn’t exactly an easy place to come to and break that duck.
Under 2.5 Goals
What’s more, excluding narrow 2-1 wins over PSV and Slavia Prague, four of the Spaniard’s last five road trips in this competition have seen a maximum of two goals.
These came against decent or top sides Inter, Lyon, Man Utd, Liverpool and Dortmund, with the only high-scoring encounter that famous clash at Anfield last term.
Inter have also seen ‘unders’ in each of their last four home games in the Champions League, including their 1-1 draw with Barca at the San Siro in the group stages last term.
This is likely to be a must win game for Antonio Conte’s men as they’ll be needing to at least match Dortmund’s result against Slavia Prague in order to progress to the last 16.
There is some hope of them achieving that however as the Spanish Champions have only won two of their 11 fixtures at the San Siro this century, both of which came against Inter’s city rivals AC Milan, going just D3-L1 here against the Nerazzurri in that time.
Given the visitors have already secured top spot in the group, and with top-four rivals Real Sociedad and Real Madrid coming up in the next week, we’ll assume they won’t go gung-ho here.
We’re not against Conte’s disciplined team coming out on top here, though the price is extremely short on them to do so.
Barcelona +1.0 Asian Handicap
Instead, we’re happy to get behind Messi and Co. on the Asian handicap. Only two of Inter’s 10 home games under Conte have seen them win by at least two clear goals, with one coming against 15th-placed Lecce on the opening day of the season.
The other came over a Dortmund side that aren’t known for their sturdy defence, and even then it took an 89th minute goal in a 2-0 win to cover the handicap.
Barcelona +1.0 Asian Handicap At 41/50
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