12 Jun 2019
Britain’s oldest Classic takes place at Doncaster on Saturday (3.35pm) and the Group 1 contest over an extended 1m6f may have gone out of fashion, but there are 12 contenders this time in what appears to be a standard renewal.
This has not always been an easy race to predict, with only three favourites obliging in the last decade. In fact, seven of the 10 winners came from outside of the first three in the betting market.
We take a look at the runners and try to pinpoint the value.
Runner-up in the Derby as a 20/1 shot, he represents the winning-most British trainer who has had another phenomenal season. A win here would put the cherry on a landmark campaign for the Scot. Braveheart’s runner is unproven over this trip, having never raced beyond an extended 1m4f, and stamina is a concern. His Genting Casino odds of 12/1 suggest place claims are the best he can hope for.
What a difference a year makes – or rather what a difference a bug in a yard makes. The Ballydoyle yard has had to endure a very modest season by its own lofty standards, but Kew Gardens has provided at least a couple of highlights after a low-key start at Newmarket, winning the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at the Royal meeting (over 1m6f) and stepping up on that to land the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp (1m4f) in July. Though Old Persian, who re-opposes, lowered his colours when third in the Great Voltigeur at York, the stable’s runners are in better form now. He is one of five representing O’Brien and his current Genting Casino odds of 9/4 suggest he is the one most likely to put it up to the favourite.
One of the least exposed in the field, having had just six runs, James Doyle’s mount has won three of four races this season, including a Group 2 over an extended 1m4f at Deauville last month. As with a Listed race success there prior to that, victory came on soft ground.
He was beaten over 1m5f in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket in July so his Genting Casino odds of 10/1 suggest the odds-makers have doubts about his ability to get this trip.
Has not appeared to have progressed as much as hoped from two to three. Last season he won a Group 3, beating stablemate Kew Gardens, and was just touched off by Roaring Lion in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket.
This year, however, he has been used largely for pace-making duties and is held by Kew Gardens and Old Persian on his Great Voltigeur run, when weakening into sixth. His Genting Casino odds of 50/1 may be on the lofty side for this son of Frankel, who has run his best races with some dig in the ground.
A winner of four of his six starts this term, the son of Dubawii landed the Great Voltigeur a little more cosily than the head verdict over stablemate Cross Counter suggested, overcoming a 3lb penalty thanks to his win in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot.
William Buick, who was on board that day, is reunited with him, and his Genting Casino odds are currently 8/1. He holds a leading chance, providing he gets the trip.
Was not beaten far in the 1m6f Melrose handicap at York last month on fast ground, but his previous run over course and distance on soft ground was uninspiring and he may not have the class to be in the hunt at this level. His current Genting Casino odds of 66/1 reflect his chance.
Relatively unexposed after five career starts and his sole start at the top level was a nine-length trouncing by Roaring Lion in the Eclipse at Sandown in July.
He subsequently took a Listed race at Hamilton, but was left found wanting by Hamada in a Group 3 at Newbury last time, so has a bit to find with some of these. His Genting Casino odds of 20/1 may interest each-way backers.
SOUTHERN FRANCE (Aidan O’Brien)
This son of Galileo has run some fair races this term and although was held by stablemate Kew Gardens in the Queen’s Vase, there was plenty to like about his attitude when a staying-on fourth to Flag Of Honour in a Curragh Group 3 last time.
He has run a tough green on a couple of occasions, but looks and out-and-out stayer and in a tactical race, he may be the one to force a true gallop, so current Genting Casino odds of 12/1 may offer value.
Eighth in the Derby and beaten just over five lengths by Old Persian at York last time, there is plenty of room for improvement from Wayne Lordon’s mount. Yet his pedigree suggests there might be some hidden depths not yet explored and this trip might bring out the best in him.
On bare form alone, he is making up the numbers and his Genting Casino odds of 25/1 reflect that.
His best form came when third in the Dante at York, so that leaves him with tons to find. He is a nice spare ride for Jim Crowley, though, but at 100/1 with Genting Casino, he is easy to overlook.
In the St Leger, fillies are in receipt of a 3lb weight allowance against colts and this is a race that John Gosden has won four times.
This strong-galloping daughter of Dubawi (pictured above) will appreciate the cut in the ground and she comes here fresh, having had just three runs (all this season), latterly scorching to a 10-length success in the Listed 1m4f Galtres Stakes at York last month.
Illness had seen her miss the Oaks and Royal Ascot, but she delivered on the promise shown previously to make it three wins from three starts. She should have no difficulty handling the step up in trip and Frankie Dettori’s mount looks a worthy Genting Casino favourite at 15/8.
A winner of four of her last five starts (and runner-up in the Group 2 Lillie Langtry at Goodwood on her penultimate), she is in the hands of a trainer who is in the midst of a deep purple patch.
She won with plenty in hand in a three-runner Group 3 over 1m6f at Goodwood last time but she has not had the opportunity to race at the highest level and this will be tough against the colts, even with the 3lb allowance. She is currently a 25/1 shot with Genting Casino.
TRENDS TO NOTE
Only two of the last 10 winners were the highest-rated in the field
The last 10 winners had won at least five races
Eight of the last 10 winners recorded a top three finish last time out
Winners of the last 10 renewals had previously run in a Group 3 race or better
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