12 Jun 2019
Recently, there has been a lot of talk about carbon footprints. With four English football clubs all reaching the two European club competition finals, perhaps the carbon footprint could be reduced by playing both games in England, rather than in Baku and Madrid.
Likewise, horse racing could reduce its own carbon footprint by running the Derby at Ballydoyle, such is the dominance of Aidan O’Brien.
Last week, he saddled the winner of both the QIPCO 2000 and 1000 Guineas’, Sir Dragonet powered home to win the Chester Vase by eight lengths on only his second start, and is now favourite to land O’Brien a seventh Derby success.
The O’Brien-trained Japan, Broome, and potentially Sir Dragonet – if supplemented – are all to the forefront of the market for the Derby on June 1.
On Saturday, Anthony Van Dyck will bid to enhance his Epsom claims in the Lingfield Derby Trial. We take a look at the pick of the ITV action from the Surrey track.
LINGFIELD PARK
1.55pm – Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
Key Trends
14 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once previously
12 of the last 15 winners had no more than three career runs
7 of the last 15 winners returned 5/2 or shorter
7 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the season
10 of the last 15 winners went on to run in the Epsom Oaks
0 of the last 15 winners landed the Epsom Oaks (two runners-up)
Analysis
FRANKELLINA hails from the William Haggas stable that sent out Vow (2012) and Toujours L’Amour (2015) to win this race. This daughter of Frankel landed a Yarmouth novice on her sole start, taking her time to get on top of a John Gosden newcomer. She is highly regarded, makes her seasonal debut and holds an Oaks entry.TAUTEKE will make her turf debut for Roger Varian, having run twice over 1m on the AW at Kempton and Chelmsford, and winning on her second start. She is bred to do better over further than 1m and this Sea The Stars filly is expected to go well and book her Oaks ticket.
ANAPURNA, from the Gosden stable that won this with Dyna Waltz (2010) and Hertford Dancer (2017, above), won easily over 1m2f on the AW here last time and will stay this 1m3f trip. The Frankel filly is another who holds an Epsom entry and Frankie Dettori has chosen her in favour of stablemate ELISIBA, who won over an extended 1m1f at Wolverhampton, and who makes her turf debut.
KING POWER is another Frankel filly, who stayed on nicely over 1m2f to finish runner-up to Sparkle Roll on her seasonal debut. The winner, who scored under a 7lb penalty, will likely run in York’s Musidora Stakes on Wednesday. The Andrew Balding-trained King Power has a bit to find at this level.
CAPE ISLAY won an Epsom maiden and a Nottingham nursey last season, but was beaten 17 lengths on her return to action at Leicester and is starting to look exposed after six runs.
KVETUSHKA still looked a little green when scoring over 1m2f on the AW here on her seasonal debut for Peter Chapple-Hyam. There may be more to come and she has clearly strengthened up from two to three.
LADY COSETTE is the most experienced in the field with nine starts under her belt. Beaten a length in a 1m4f Wolverhampton fillies’ maiden in February, she does not look the most obvious candidate.
2.30pm – DERBY TRIAL STAKES (Listed)
Key Trends
13 of the last 16 winners came from the top three in the betting
13 of the last 16 winners went on to run in the Epsom Derby
12 of the last 16 winners finished fourth or better on their previous run
11 of the last 16 winners had run within the previous four weeks
5 of the last 16 winners had won on their previous run
3 of the last 16 winners were favourite
Analysis
ANTHONY VAN DYCK, a son of Galileo who landed the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh as a juvenile, had the misfortune to come up against two top-class clots in the shape of Ouorto and Too Darn Hot when beaten in the National Stakes and Dewhurst. He makes his seasonal debut having been last seen when beaten almost seven lengths by Line Of Duty in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November. This step up in trip offers conflicting views, but the drop in class is sure to help.
CAP FRANCAIS won a couple of novice races for Ed Walker last September and was runner-up to another O’Brien colt, Cape Of Good Hope, in the Epsom Blue Riband Trial on his seasonal bow and did not look entirely at ease on the track. He would need to be supplemented for the Derby, but looks as though he would appreciate 1m4f in due course.
EAGLES BY DAY, a son of Sea The Stars, coasted to victory in a 1m4f Salisbury maiden last time in a strongly-run race. Trainer Michael Bell holds him in high regard and he holds a Derby entry. He holds a major chance over this extended 1m3f if getting a truly-run race.
PABLO ESCOBARR is having his sixth run. Having landed a 1m2f Goodwood maiden in September, he was beaten in a Bath handicap off a mark of 93 on his return from a 205-day break last month. He should not be good enough to win this, but the Haggas yard is in good form with nine winners from its last 34 runners.
NATE THE GREAT was runner-up in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last June and seemed to improve for the longer trip when third to the O’Brien-trained Norway in the 1m2f Zetland Stakes at Newmarket on October. He has reportedly been working well ahead of his seasonal debut, but will have had to show plenty of improvement to figure.
THEMAXWECAN was attempting to give 10lb to the useful Technician in a 1m4f novice at Leicester, but was beaten just over three lengths. Previously unbeaten, Mark Johnston’s representative appears to be one of the more likely candidates for the each-way money.
THREE COMETS appreciated a return to an easier surface when chasing home smart filly Maunuela De Vega in a Listed 1mcontest at Pontefract in October. He should appreciate this extra distance and holds a Derby entry.
RANCH HAND is the only unbeaten runner in the field, having scored twice on the AW at Southwell this spring. Already gelded, he looks a high-class handicapper in the making.
SEVERANCE scored by seven lengths over 1m4f at Haydock last month on testing ground. He would appreciate any rain, but looks out of his depth.
HIROSHIMA won a Southwell AW maiden in good style on his return, but this is far more competitive.
3.40pm – CHARTWELL FILLIES’ STAKES (Group 3)
Key Trends
13 of the last 13 winners were aged 5yo or younger
11 of the last 13 winners had won at least once before
9 of the last 13 winner shad won over 7f previously
8 of the last 13 winners finished first or second last time out
5 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure SP
Analysis
PRETTY BABY is a winner of four of her last five outings (beaten a short-head in the other) and took a Group 3 at Goodwood when last seen in August. She won on her seasonal debut last year and this is a good starting point for what promises to be a productive summer for the Haggas-trained 4yo Orpen filly.
PERFECTION is trained by David O’Meara, who had a good week with his runners at Chester. The former John Gosden inmate won two of her last three races, all over 6f, but she does have winning form over this 7f trip and the stable boasts an 80% strike-rate (four out of five) with its 4yo+ at this track.
DANCING STAR makes her seasonal debut for Andrew Balding. While a 6yo winner would go against recent trends, she is consistent, having won six and been placed on five other occasions in 19 turf starts. She won a Group 3 at Doncaster over this trip in September and will again give a good account.
DERVANT is a French raider who was good enough to win a Group 3 at Maisons-Laffitte in October. She handles soft ground and gets a handy weight allowance as the only 3yo in the race, so is expected to be among the leading players.
EIRENE won a big-field Listed 5f race at Newbury as a juvenile, but has not really progressed as hoped. Her best effort last term came when landing a three-runner conditions race over 7f, but the 4yo was well held on her seasonal bow in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster and needs to up her game to figure. She does have a handy draw, however.
BETTY F signed off last term with a close-up third in a decent York handicap, but she looked a bit flat on her return at Newmarket last month, when sixth to Mubtasim. She may just have needed that and Frankie Dettori sticks with the Jeremy Noseda-trained filly.
CHERRY LADY arrives from Germany having not been beaten far in a Listed contest at Hannover o her seasonal debut. She landed a 7f Listed event there in October and trainer Peter Schiergen is no stranger to having winners in Britain.
SHEPHERD MARKET was found a good opportunity to earn some black type when taking a Listed 1m event at Saint-Cloud in September, the culmination of a light 3yo campaign. She did not show much on her return at Kempton last month, however, and Clive Cox is rolling the dice somewhat here.
