12 Jun 2019
The Derby is a Group 1 Flat race for three-year-old colts and fillies, run over a distance of one mile, four furlongs and six yards. Colts carry 9st, while fillies receive a 3lb allowance. It is Britain’s riches race and the most prestigious of the five Classics, often referred to as the ‘Blue Riband’ of the turf.
The Derby serves as the middle leg of the Triple Crown, preceded by the 2000 Guineas and followed by the St Leger. The last Triple Crown winner was Nijinsky in 1970.
First run in 1780, it has been won six times by trainer Aidan O’Brien since Galileo gave him a first win in 2011, and he holds another strong hand again. We offer a horse-by-horse guide ahead of Saturday’s big race and assess their chances.
4.30pm – INVESTEC DERBY (Group 1)
Key Trends
4 of the last 12 winners were favourite/joint-favourite
10 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting
7 of the last 12 winners won their previous start
10 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous runs
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 109 or higher
10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Group race
12 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous win that season
1 of the last 12 winners had run over 12f before
5 of the last 12 winners won on their next start
8 of the last 12 winners went on to win at least one more Group 1 that season
0 of the last 51 winners have come from stalls 2 or 11
3 of the last 51 winners have come from stall 1
10 of the last 51 winners have come from stall 10
Analysis
Every major Trial winner is an intended runner for Britain’s most famous Flat race and this has the making of a strong renewal.
ANTHONY VAN DYCK is one of eight potential starters that line up for trainer Aidan O’Brien and while eight Lingfield Derby Trial winners have gone on to score at Epsom, High-Rise was the last in 1998. By a Derby winner (Galileo) out of a speedily-bred dam, he was a market drifter ahead of his first run of the season, and looked as if he would come on plenty for the run and for quicker ground than he encountered at Lingfield. He has a great attitude and may well get the trip.
BANGKOK failed to win as a juvenile for Andrew Balding, but broke his maiden in style at Doncaster and then followed up with a clear-cut success in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown, showing a neat turn of foot. While a well-balanced individual, there are questions about his ability to settle in his races and switch off. If he doesn’t, he may not see out the trip.
BROOME has had plenty of experience, winning three of his seven starts, including both as a 3yo. This son of 2014 Derby winner Australia powered to an eight-length success in the Ballysax Stakes and while subsequently justifying favouritism in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown, he was less impressive. That said, he looks the type to improve no end for a step up to 1m4f and rates a leading contender from the Ballydoyle yard.
CIRCUS MAXIMUS landed the Dee Stakes at Chester and bids to become the first horse since Kris Kin in 2003 to go on to win the Derby. He justified favouritism on his first run of the season and interestingly, O’Brien said: “We felt he would come forward a good bit from Chester”. The son of Galileo will certainly improve for the step up in trip and would appear to have live each-way claims.
HIROSHIMA, trained by John Ryan, is an 87-rated son of Nathaniel, whose sole win in three starts came in a Southwell maiden. He is being pitched in at the deep end and it would be a major surprise should he finish in the first half-dozen.
HUMANITARIAN, trained by John Gosden who won this race in 2015 with Golden Horn, has only tasted defeat once in three outings – and that was to stablemate Kick On at Newmarket on his debut last season. While he landed the odds under a penalty in a 1m2f novice race at Salisbury last time, he looks more of a King Edward VII Stakes type than a Derby-winner-in-waiting.
JAPAN took a high rank among the ante-post winter favourites for the Derby when taking the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at Naas in September. The Galileo colt then endured a 228-day break before finishing fourth in the Dante Stakes at York. That was a much better run than the bare form would suggest, as he looked in need of the outing and a stiffer test of stamina. O’Brien admitted: “We were a little bit easier on the horses in their trials than we have been before. We ran them in their trials in a way you would think they would come forward from.” He will be staying on late and the St Leger might be on the cards with natural progression. He can’t be ruled out easily, though.
LINE OF DUTY is the sole Godolphin candidate. Trained by Charlie Appleby, responsible for saddling last year’s winner Masar, this Galileo colt won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs in November, but did not appear to handle the quick ground in the Dante, where he was a disappointing seventh. He has to prove he has trained on, but it is too soon to write him off.
MADHMOON brings the 2000 Guineas form to the party. The 1m Newmarket Classic is invariably a good pointer to Epsom form and the Kevin Prendergast-trained son of Dawn Approach was a fine fourth to Magna Grecia on the Rowley Mile. He has a miler’s pedigree but shaped as though he needed further, although there is no guarantee he will stay.
NORWAY is bred to get a mile and a half well, being by Galileo. He was Ryan Moore’s pick of the O’Brien duo in the Chester Vase but last year’s Zetland winner spoiled his chance by getting worked up beforehand and was beaten by stablemate Sir Dragonet. He looks a stayer in the making and is another potential candidate for the St Leger.
SIR DRAGONET is the only unbeaten colt in the line-up. Unraced as a juvenile, the son of Camelot powered home to win the Chester Vase by eight lengths on his second start – just 13 days after making a winning debut at Tipperary – and was supplemented for the Derby at a cost of £85,000 earlier this week. The manner of his victory and the fact that he took an age to pull up afterwards, suggests he’ll certainly get the trip. He might just benefit from a bit of cut in the ground and is open to plenty of improvement.
SOVEREIGN is another form the O’Brien yard, but not one of the leading lights. His sole win in seven came in a modest Galway maiden last September and he has been well held twice by Broome in his two starts this term. Another son of Galileo, he is likely to be employed as a pacemaker.
SURFMAN was well supported for the Dante, which was a big step up from his previous Newcastle all-weather novice win. He finished a fair third at York, beaten five lengths by Telecaster, on ground that was plenty quick enough for him. He got going late and more positive tactics may be employed at Epsom. Trainer Roger Varian suggested that he would benefit for the run and he is not one to discount lightly.
TELECASTER was unraced at two. He was not beaten far by Bankok on his Doncaster debut in March before winning a Windsor novice by nine lengths on his second start. Upped in class, he then lowered the colours of Too Darn Hot in the Dante. The Hughie Morrison-trained son of New Approach was supplemented for the Derby thereafter and there is a good chance he will relish moving up to 1m4f, since his dam, Shirocco Star, was an Oaks runner-up. While the Dante has a rich tradition of providing the Derby winner, with Telecaster bidding to join Golden Horn (2015), Authorized (2007), Motivator (2005) and North Light (2004) completing the double in recent times, the Derby is run at its earliest possible date this year. The gap between the June 1 Classic and the York Group 2 is only 16 days and that may well be a handicap.
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