12 Jun 2019
TUESDAY, MARCH 12 – CHAMPION DAY
1.30pm – SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m 87y
Key Trends
17 of the last 20 winners were aged 5yo or 6yo
17 of the last 20 winners won their previous start
16 of the last 20 winners were sent off no bigger than 12/1
Analysis
The Deloitte Novice Hurdle run at Leopardstown at the beginning of February has been the most prominent trial over the past 20 years, providing four Supreme winners. The 2019 renewal saw the Willie Mullins pair KLASSICAL DREAM and ARAMON finish 1-2. AL DANCER, unbeaten in four starts this season, including at Cheltenham when scoring at the International meeting in December, sets a fair standard but there have been just two winning favourites in the last decade. ANGELS BREATH, who made an impressive wining debut over hurdles at Ascot in December, still looked in need of experience when beaten at Kempton recently, and FAKIR D’OUDARIES, who won the Trial at Cheltenham in January, will likely have plenty of support on the day and could be the one to beat. The Joseph O’Brien-trained four-year-old is the current Genting Casino second favourite at 7/2.
2.10pm – ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY STEEPLECHASE (Grade 1), 1m 7f 199y
Key Trends
6 of the last 7 favourites won at odds-on
16 of the last 20 winners had won on their previous start
18 of the last 20 winners were sent off at 9/1 or shorter
Analysis
Leopardstown’s Arkle Novice Chase has provided four recent Festival Arkle winners and while this year’s winner Richenbourg has been ruled out through injury, stablemate and runner-up US AND THEM could interest each-way bettors. LALOR, impressive on his chase debut in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November, was hampered by testing ground when 12-lengths third in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in early December. His best runs have come when fresh and it is perhaps worth noting that despite inexperience, Well Chief and Western Warhorse both won the Arkle on just their second chase starts. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner DEFI DU SEUIL sets a fair standard, having won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown, while GLEN FORSA, who made it three out of three over fences when accounting for the useful Kalashnikov in the Kingmaker at the same Esher track, also rates as a major threat.
3.30pm – CHAMPION HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m 87y
Key Trends
19 of the last 30 horses placed 1-2-3 in the last 10 years were trained by Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins
5 of the last 8 favourites have obliged
4 of the last 8 renewals was won by a 7yo
Analysis
Nicky Henderson has won this race four times in the last decade and bids for a hat-trick with BUVEUR D’AIR, who underlined his wellbeing with an easy win in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown, which was landed by four subsequent Champion Hurdle winners in the last 20 years. The Gordon Elliott-trained APPLE’S JADE advertised her credentials in the taking the Irish Champion Hurdle in early February to maintain her unbeaten record this season. That Leopardstown race as produced seven subsequent Champion Hurdle winners over the past 20 years. Both Apple’s Jade and LAURINA, who won the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle by a wide margin at last year’s Festival, have the advantage of the mares’ weight allowance and both look major players.
MELON, beaten a neck in this race last year, has a bit to find with Apples’ Jade on Irish Champion Hurdle form, while SHARJAH did not get the credit he deserved for beating Faugheen in the Morgiana Hurdle or when accounting for Samcro (who misses the Festival) when landing the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown.
4.10pm – OLBG MARES’ HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y
Key Trends
10 of the last 11 winners were sent of no bigger than 6/1
9 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
10 of the last 11 winners has an official rating of at least 147
Analysis
Quevega won this race an astonishing six times between 2009 and 2014 and Willie Mullins also won this contest for the David Nicholson Trophy with Glens Melody, Vroum Vroum Mag and, last year, with Benie Des Dieux. With APPLE’S JADE and LAURINA likely to head to the Champion Hurdle, BENIE DES DIEUX might get her own way again and is many people’s idea of a banker. She is currently Evens (non-runner no bet) and could be shorter on the day. STORMY IRELAND and LIMINI give Mullins another strong hand, with the Dan Skelton-trained ROKSANA, third to Buveur D’Air in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown, seemingly the main British hope.
OTHER RACES
2.50pm – ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3) 3m1f
Key Trends
16 of the last 20 winners previously contested a G1 or G2 race
15 of the last 20 winners were aged between 7yo & 9yo
The last 5 winners carried 10-10 or more
Analysis
The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old GIVE ME A COPPER has a lofty reputation, despite running on only a handful of occasions since joining the stable in 2016. Course specialist SINGLEFARMPAYMENT, Doncaster handicap winner GO CONQUER and MINELLA ROCCO, trained by Jonjo O’Neill – who has won this three times in the last decade – are also worth considering in an open race.
4.50pm – CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE (Listed) 2m4f 44y
Key Trends
9 of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter
6 of the last 7 winners carried 11-7 or bigger
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo
Analysis
CLONDAW CASTLE has not had a great deal of experience but won well at Leicester for Tom George, while ANY SECOND NOW is likely to welcome this drop in class after not being beaten far in a Grade 2 at Navan in mid-February. A PLUS TARD went close in a Grade 3 at Punchestown last time and that form looks decent.
5.30pm – NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP AMATEUR RIDERS’ NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 2) 3m7f 147y
Key Trends
3 of the last 10 winners were trained by Gordon Elliott
7 of the last 8 winners were sent off at 8/1 or shorter
15 of the last 20 winners had previously won over 3m+
Analysis
The trends suggest that we should look for classier horses rather than horses who may potentially improve for the step up in trip. OK CORRAL will have plenty of support following a dominant display in the Listed Hampton Court Novices’ Chase at Warwick, although he does have an extra mile to travel. BALLYWARD, a winner over 3m last time, and Gordon Elliott’s CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC each hold claims.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13 – LADIES DAY
1.30pm – BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m5f
Key Trends
19 of the last 20 winners had finished in the first two last time out
16 of the last 20 winners had a single-figure SP
19 of the last 20 were aged 5yo or 6yo
Analysis
Willie Mullins has had three winners and six other placed horses in the last 10 years, and appears to have a strong hand again with KLASSICAL DREAM, who won the always informative Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown, beating stablemate ARAMON, Clonmel Grade 3 winner ALLAHO and EASY GAME, who landed two Group races at Navan before Christmas. The Nicky Henderson-trained CHAMP is unbeaten in four starts this season and his Newbury Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle victory was out of the top drawer. He bids to become the first 7yo to land this race since French Holly in 1998. Soft ground will help BATTLEOVERDOYEN,who maintained his unbeaten record in style at Naas.
2.10pm – RSA INSURANCE NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 1) 3m 80y
Key Trends
6 of the last 7 winners had an SP no bigger than 8/1
3 of the last 4 winners were successful favourites
15 of the last 20 winners were aged 7yo
Analysis
DELTA WORK took his unbeaten record to three when scoring in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas and Gordon Elliott’s runner is arguably the best staying novice in Ireland. Having won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last year, he has no concerns about the course. The Paul Nicholls-trained TOPOFTHEGAME is a giant 6yo who had SANTINI behind when runner-up in the Kauto Star at Kempton, just failing to concede 7lb to LA BAGUE AU ROI. This 3m trip is probably as far as he wants at this stage. MISTER MALARKEY, who won the Grade 1 Reynoldstown at Ascot, will tempt a few each-way bettors.
3.30pm – QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (Grade 1) 1m7f 199y
Key Trends
7 of the last 10 winners had an SP no bigger than 5/1
16 of the last 20 winners had previously won a Grade 1
7 of the last 11 winners were trained by either Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
Analysis
Seven winners of the Clarence House Chase at Ascot in the last 20 renewals have gone on to win the Champion Chase. Reigning champion ALTIOR landed the 2019 renewal and he has outstanding claims of taking a ninth Grade 1 and winning for a fourth consecutive season at the Festival, having taken the Supreme and the Arkle in 2016 and 2017. MIN has won six of 10 chase starts and was runner-up in three, including when seven lengths behind Altior in last year’s Champion Chase. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old looks the obvious one to take advantage if the favourite flounders. Min’s stablemate and last season’s Arkle winner FOOTPAD lacked fitness when beaten narrowly at Leopardstown over Christmas, but his jumping was spot-on and he will doubtless have plenty of support.
5.30pm – WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (Grade 1) 2m 87y
Key Trends
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6
All of the last 10 winners were successful on their previous start
7 of the last 10 winners had their last run this year
Analysis
This National Hunt Flat race has not been a great one for favourite-backers, with one market leader successful in the last 12 renewals. The Gordon Elliott-trained ENVOI ALLEN is unbeaten in three Bumpers, including when taking a Grade 2 with ease at Leopardstown last time. Better ground might also be a plus for him. Willie Mullins’ representatives must always come into consideration and Gowran Park winner BLUE SARI is likely to attract support. GET IN THE QUEUE, who scored at Uttoxeter and at Exeter for Harry Fry, is perhaps the most likely of the ‘home’ team to put it down to the Irish raiders.
OTHER RACES
2.50pm – CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3) 2m5f
Key Trends
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
The last 20 winners had no more than two previous wins that season
17 of the last 20 winners had previously run over 2m4f+
Analysis
Gordon Elliott has had two winners and three placed horses from 12 runners in the Coral Cup since 2009 and stablemates, Irish Gold Cup third THE STORYTELLER and 3m Leopardstown winner DALLAS DES PICTONS, are leading contenders. URADEL has been largely campaigned over inadequate trips this season as he showed when taking an age to get going over 2m at Leopardstown in early February when a close-up fifth to OFF YOU GO. This trip should help.
4.10pm – GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3m6f 37y
Key Trends
11 of the last 14 winners had an SP no bigger than 7/1
13 of the last 14 winners previously contested a Graded race
13 of the last 14 winners had won over at least 3m
Analysis
Victorious in last season’s Cross County Chase at the festival, TIGER ROLL subsequently landed the Grand National at Aintree, and again showed his versatility when taking a Grade 2 hurdle at Navan on his most recent start. The Enda Bolger-trained JOSIES ORDERS has won four times over this course, including his latest success in November, while stablemate AUVERGNAT, fourth in this race last year, is a youngster who holds a major chance.
4.50pm – BOODLES FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3) 2m 87y
Key Trends
13 of the last 14 winners carried no more than 11-5
12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than three hurdle races
11 of the last 14 winners had won within their last three starts
Analysis
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner on three occasions, and FRIEND OR FOE, who won on his British debut for the yard at Taunton, looks potentially smart. Joseph O’Brien has a strong team of juveniles and BAND OF OUTLAWS, also high in the betting for the Triumph Hurdle, produced a barn-storming performance in a 2m novices’ hurdle at Naas. Stablemate GARDENS OF BABYLON, second in a Leopardstown Grade 1 when last seen, is also expected to be a major player.
THURSDAY, MARCH 14 – ST PATRICK’S DAY
1.30pm – JLT NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 1) 2m3f 166y
Key Trends
1 winner and 12 placed horses from the last 52 British-based runners
7 of the last 8 winners had an SP no bigger than 7/1
7 of the last 8 winners previously contested a Grade 1 race
Analysis
In a race that Irish-trained horses have dominated, two ‘home’ hopes dominate the betting in the form of the Philip Hobbs-trained DEFI DU SEUIL and Colin Tizzard’s LOSTINTRANSLATION, The latter got the better of Defi Du Seuil at Cheltenham at the turn of the year, before the runner-up avenged that defeat in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown in early February on 3lb better terms. The 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner Defi Du Seuil has a fine Cheltenham record, with four wins and a runner-up effort from six visits. Willie Mullins has won this four times since 2012 and REAL STEEL, who won at Fairyhouse and Thurles, will have plenty of support.
2.50pm – RYANAIR CHASE (Grade 1) 2m4f 127y
Key Trends
13 of the last 14 winners were 1st or 2nd on their previous start
11 of the last 14 winners had previously won a Grade 1
Last 9 winners had an official rating of 161+
Analysis
Course-winning form is often advisable when looking for the winner, as only 2012 winner Riverside Theatre and last year’s winner Balko Des Flos had not previously scored at the course. French-breds have won the last five renewals and FRODON fits both those trends, having won his last two at Cheltenham, including the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase. KEMBOY, who was fourth in the JLT here last year, won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas and his last four for Willie Mullins, who may also target the high-class MIN and FOOTPAD at the race. They have entries in the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well. The Henry de Bromhead-trained MONALEE, runner-up to Penhill in the 2017 Albert Bartlett and second to Gold Cup favourite Presenting Percy in the RSA Chase last year, looked good in winning the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran last time and should go very well again.
3.30pm – STAYERS’ HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m7f 213y
Key Trends
18 of the last 20 winners had an SP no bigger than 14/1
18 of the last 20 winners had won at least a Grade 2
19 of the last 20 winners ran no more than four times that season
Analysis
The two trials providing the most winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in the last 20 years are the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (yielded seven winners) and the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (yielded three). Both trials were won this season by the Emma Lavelle-trained PAISLEY PARK, who is unbeaten in four starts this term. The Jessica Harrington-trained SUPASUNDAE has not been out of the first two in each of his last eight starts, all at Grade 1 level, and was runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time. He has yet to win over 3m, however. Willie Mullins, who trained Nichols Canyon and Penhill to success in this race in the last two years, will rely upon former Champion Hurdler FAUGHEEN, who may not quite have the legs at the age of 11.
OTHER RACES
2.10pm – PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3) 2m7f 213y
Key Trends
18 of the last 20 winners had previously won over 2m4f+
15 of the last 20 winners had previously contested a Graded race
The last 20 winners had run within the last 66 days
Analysis
The Gordon Elliott-trained SIRE DU BERLAIS is a lightly-raced 7yo who was fourth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle here last year. He was staying on well in defeat over 3m at Leopardstown over Christmas. Warwick first and third, KEEPER HILL and FIRST ASSIGNMENT, are also worthy of consideration in an open contest.
4.10pm – BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3) 2m4f 127y
Key Trends
26 of the last 31 winners were rated 141 or less
15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less
20 of the last 21 winners previously won a race between 2m3f and 2m5f
Analysis
A thrilling display by SIRUH DU LAC in a Grade 3 Handicap over a similar trip at Cheltenham took his record to five from seven over fences and he is a leading contender. RATHER BE has been a little unlucky at Cheltenham, but he clearly loves the track and he did not stay 3m last time. Stablemate JANIKA is higher in the betting, having chased home Siruh Du Lac last time. Kempton winner WALT and Sandown scorer NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE hold each-way claims.
4.50pm – DAWN RUN MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 2) 2m 179y
Key Trends
3 of the last 3 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
3 of 3 winners were unbeaten that season
3 of 3 winners were favourite
Analysis
HONEYSUCKLE, who romped to a six-length victory in a Grade 3 event at Fairyhouse in January to take her unbeaten record to three, was ruled out on Friday. Henry de Bromhead does have a potential super sub in SINORIA, though. The Nicky Henderson-trained EPTANTE has less experience, but looked smart when landing her novice at Kempton in November. She must be first on the shortlist, along with POSH TRISH and SINORIA.
5.30pm – FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP AMATEUR RIDERS’ HANDICAP CHASE 3m2f
Key Trends
19 of the last 20 winners had no more than two previous handicap chase wins
19 of the last 20 winners were aged between 7yo and 10yo
4 of Jamie Codd’s last 9 rides in the race were successful (5 others placed)
Analysis
IMPULSIVE STAR, who took advantage of bottom weight on his handicap chase debut at Warwick over 3m5f in January, was fourth in this race last year in testing ground. Neil Mulholland’s representative could be a live candidate again. DE RASHER COUNTER had subsequent winner Walt behind at Newbury in December, while ANY SECOND NOW has claims on his fair fourth to Auvergnat at Leopardstown over Christmas.
FRIDAY, MARCH 15 – GOLD CUP DAY
1.30pm – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m 179y
Key Trends
20 of the last 20 winners had all run within the last 55 days
18 of the last 20 finished in the first two last time out
15 of the last 20 winners were either French or Irish-bred
Analysis
Joseph O’Brien has a strong contingent of young horses and SIR EREC is the strong favourite for this always-competitive event, following an all-the-way success in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. O’Brien, who was credited with masterminding Ivanovich Gorbatov’s Triumph Hurdle win for his father, Aidan, in 2016, has yet to officially train a winner at the Cheltenham Festival. However, he also trains the second favourite in FAKIR D’OUDARIES, an impressive Grade 2 winner at Cheltenham last time. He also holds entries in the Supreme and the Ballymore, and any juice in the ground would help him, in whichever race he runs. Paul Nicholls has had one winner in the last 16 saddled in this race and QUEL DESTIN has won his last five, including when taking a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November.
2.50pm – ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1) 2m7f 213y
Key Trends
6 of the last 14 renewals was won by a 6yo
12 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 2 on their previous start
11 of the last 14 winners had previously run over 3m+
Analysis
BATTLEOVERDOYEN, who also holds an entry in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on the second day of the Festival, has significant claims in whichever race he ends up, as he is 2-2 over hurdles, latterly scoring with ease in a Grade 1 at Naas. He looks the sort to relish a test of stamina and will make a lovely chaser in time. The same can be said for stablemate COMMANDER OF FLEET, who stuck on nicely to land a 2m6f Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time, and the step up to 3m might see him come into his own. LISNAGAR OSCAR is a rapidly-improving young stayer who was runner-up in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December and went on to take a similar event in style at Haydock. Trained by Rebecca Curtis, the six-year-old would appear to have a live chance. Chepstow maiden winner DICKIE DIVER, narrowly beaten by Lisnagar Oscar on is rules debut, followed up hard held in a Chepstow maiden and is in Nicky Henderson’s very capable hands, so expect plenty of improvement.
3.30pm – MAGNERS CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP (Grade 1) 3m2f 70y
Key Trends
10 of the last 12 winners scored on their previous run
6 of the last 12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
5 of the last 12 favourites were successful
Analysis
The Patrick Kelly-trained PRESENTING PERCY is the current favourite in what does not appear to be a string renewal. Last season’s RSA Chase winner has had a more conservative campaign this term, returning with a cosy victory in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park in January. While he would prefer cut in the ground to show his best, he is unbeaten in two starts at Cheltenham and has winning form on good ground. CLAN DES OBEAUX won a strong edition of the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and followed-up in style, conceding weight to the useful Terrefort in the Denman Chase at Newbury. He is a young, improving horse and enters the race with a massive chance. Last year’s victor NATIVE RIVER bids to become the first back-to-back winner since Best Mate (2002-2004). He beat MITE BITE in soft ground last year and this galloping track plays more to his strengths than Kempton, where he was third in the King George. Willie Mullins has saddled the runner-up on no less than six occasions, including three in the last five years. He may rely on KEMBOY, who won the Grade 1 Savills Chase in style at Leopardstown over Christmas, and AL BOUM PHOTO, who was successful in the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse last April.
OTHER RACES
2.10pm – RANDOX HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3) 2m 179y
Key Trends
15 of the last 16 winners were either a novice or a second-season hurdler
9 of the last 10 winners had a rating of between 132 and 139
7 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded race
Analysis
Willie Mullins may target this race with URADEL, although he also holds a Coral Cup entry and he looks to have plenty of improvement in him judged on a close-up fifth to Off You Go in a valuable Leopardstown handicap last time. WONDER LAISH, who is three from five over hurdles, Grade 1-placed GETAWAY TRUMP, Sandown handicap debut scorer MONSIEUR LECOQ, and Kelso novice winner DREAM DU GRAND VAL are also worthy of consideration.
4.10pm – ST JAMES’S PLACE FOXHUNTER CHALLENGE CUP OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE 3m2f 70y
Key Trends
8 of the last 11 winners were Irish-trained
10 of the last 13 winners were rated 125 or higher
8 of the last 10 winners had at least two races under rules
Analysis
STAND UP AND FIGHT, who scored with ease in a hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day, sets the standard. Each-way possibles include KRUZHLININ, a formerly decent sort for Philip Hobbs, who has won six point-to-points for Gordon Elliott this season, and ROAD TO ROME, who has won four times already since the turn of the year for John O’Shea.
4.50pm – JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3) 2m 62y
Key Trends
13 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
7 of the last 15 winners ran in the previous renewal of the same race
12 of the last 13 winners did not win on their previous start
Analysis
The Gordon Elliott-trained CUBOMANIA, winner of a decent 2m4f novices’ chase at Cheltenham in October, is an improving handicapper. Nicky Henderson has won the race named after his father twice before and his Ffos Las winner WHATSWRONGWITHYOU should relish being produced late in a truly-run race. Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of the Grand Annul a record four times and MAGIC SAINT holds strong claims of giving him a fifth success.
5.30pm – MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE 2m4f 56y
Key Trends
9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5yo and 6yo
8 of the last 10 winners had a double-figure SP
10 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
Analysis
If DALLAS DES PICTONS lines up here, a repeat of his wide-margin maiden success over 2m4f at Punchestown on his handicap debut, would put Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old in with a great chance. HONEST VIC has run well here before and the fitting of a visor last time at Ascot saw a marked improvement when touched off by the talented Brio Conte. Cesarewitch runner-up URADEL and dual easy-ground winner MONSIEUR LECOQ would also be of interest if taking this option.
