12 Jun 2019
Last weekend saw strong renewals of both the Middle Park and Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, which are both pointers to next season’s Classics.
This weekend it is a stretch to call the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe anything other than a sub-standard renewal. The absence of Crystal Ocean, coupled with injury to Poet’s Word, and the likely and surprising defection of Cracksman means that last year’s winner Enable has an outstanding chance of becoming just the third dual-winning filly of the Longchamp spectacular.
Three of the top middle-distance horses in the world may be absent, which is truly disappointing, but quite why Cracksman is almost certainly not going to take on Khalid Abdulla’s filly is dumbfounding.
Connections of the John Gosden-trained Cracksman stipulated the ground as the key reason why he will likely be held back for Champions Day at Ascot.
It is currently described as Good to Soft, which should suit him. Gosden is worried that the ground might ride too quick after an exceptionally dry summer, yet the groundstaff will surely do all they can to maintain safe ground and not risk any jar.
And while some at Newmarket last weekend were amused by clerk of the course Michael Prosser’s excellent daily updates about the amount of ‘dew on the leaf’ in the morning, it is vital to point this out, as heavy dew, particularly at this time of year, helps maintain a safe racing surface.
Unsuitably quick ground caused Cracksman to bypass the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Juddmonte International in the summer, but owner Anthony Oppenheimer is adamant that conditions will again be against him on Sunday.
“At the moment it is very firm,” Oppenheimer told the Racing Post, “and he can’t act on that.”
Although Gosden has a representative walking the track at regular intervals this week, it is expected to remain dry with some potential showers on Sunday morning in Paris.
Punters appear to have lost faith that he will stay in Britain, with Cracksman out to 12/1 on the Genting Casino online horse racing odds.
Ironically, Cracksman, who won last year’s Champion Stakes by seven lengths and was officially rated as Europe’s best horse in 2017, will run at Ascot even if the ground is on the fast side, according to Oppneheimer. He admitted: “There is only one other suitable race, the Champion Stakes. Even if it is Good to Firm we’ll have to run him there because it’ll be his last race.”
FILLIES TO SHOW THEIR CLASS?
Sea Of Class, who is effective on top-of-the-ground, was supplemented at a cost of £120,000 this week, which makes it all the more astounding that Cracksman should bypass the 1m4f Group 1.
The William Haggas-trained Sea Of Class has won her last four races, including the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks, so deserves to take her chance. She is currently the Genting Casino7/2 second favourite.
Her turn of foot could be a telling factor in what appears to be an outstanding race between two exceptional fillies.
Enable, who is a relentless galloper, did have the benefit of the fillies weight-for-age allowances last year, but she was miles ahead of anything. While she has had just one run this year, she has been expertly handled by Gosden.
While she has come back from injury, there do not appear to be any qualms about her participation on this ground and while she downed Crystal Ocean (who was giving away 8lb) at Kempton, it was a perfectly satisfactory comeback.
Such is the lack of depth in the Arc, Enable is considered the Genting Casino online Horse Racing favourite at Evens. That is unsurprising, given that if anywhere near last season’s form when she landed the Oaks, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks, King George and handed out a four-length beating to the decent Ulysses in the Arc, she should be capable of following up.
FABRE THE MAN TO FOLLOW?
Cloth Of Stars, who chased her home last year, is not in the same form and is a 50/1 chance with Genting Casino, while Kew Gardens, who won the St Leger, does not appear to have the pace to win this and his 10/1 odds seem short enough. He would make history if he did win, as no horse has won the St Leger and the Arc in the same season.
Waldgeist represents trainer Andre Fabre, who has won this race seven times, the last of those coming with Rail Link in 2006. He has the beating of Cloth Of Stars on his silky smooth performance in the Prix Foy. On that run, where he travelled supremely well and quickened off a good pace, he is sure to have his supporters and there would appear to be worse value 8/1 shots around.
Talismanic was very much second best in that race and is currently trading at 25/1.
But in truth, this should boil down to a battle of two outstanding fillies and given a clear run, Enable will take some beating if she is anywhere near back to her best.
TRENDS TO NOTE
18 of the last 24 renewals have been won by a horse aged 3yo
Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 40 runnings, including six in the last 24 renewals
Seven of the last 10 winners scored on their previous start
Nine of the last 10 winners had their preceding start in September
Five of the last 10 winners had run no more than five times during the season
Eight of the previous 10 winners either raced I midfield or were held up
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