12 Jun 2019
1.45pm – GASKELLS HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)
Key Trends
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6yo and 8yo
7 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting market
4 of the last 12 winners won on their previous start
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 130 or higher
10 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 9lb and 11st 6lb
Analysis
There is a maximum field of 22 lining up for this extended 3m handicap, with impressive Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle winner SIRE DU BERLAIS heading the weights at 11st 12lb.
He landed a gamble at Cheltenham, despite being on and off the bridle in first-time cheekpeices, but his stamina kicked in three out and he was better value than the neck victory over Tobefair would suggest.
AUX PTITS SOINS, a winner of four of nine over hurdles, was a fair seventh to Paisley Park in the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle, having previously won a decent handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He ran in the Aintree Hurdle last year (eighth) and takes a drop in class here, running off the same mark of 149 as he did last time. Dan Skelton’s runner would appear to hold a fair chance in a typically competitive affair.
MIA’S STORM is unbeaten this season. Alan’s King’s 9yo mare reverted back to hurdles after a couple of falls in novice chases, and has scored twice this season, including when taking a Listed four-runner affair at Kempton when last seen in November. This represents a step up.
POKER PLAY has been slammed by the handicapper who has put him up 11lb for a runaway win at Uttoxeter last month, but the David Pipe-trained 6yo is still improving and he may still be of interest off this mark of 137.
COOLANLY ran in Grade 1s at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last season, and having been turned over at odds-on at Wetherby on is penultimate start, redeemed himself somewhat with a decent fifth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. He is clearly a handicapper, although connections think he may be better than that.
NESTOR PARK, who took a Newcastle Novice Hurdle with ease last time and BURROWS PARK, who followed up his ninth in the Martin Pipe with a cosy Market Rasen success a couple of weeks ago, are others to consider.
2.25pm – MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1)
Key Trends
6 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites were successful
9 of the last 12 winners were aged either 5yo or 6yo
10 of the last 12 winners were rated 148 or higher
7 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous win in a Grade 1-3
11 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous runs that season
Analysis
Nine runners lie up for this 2m4f event, with BREWIN’UPASTORM heading the market following a fine fourth to City Island in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. He was going well until two out, but became outpaced in the sapping ground and a big run is anticipated.
ANGELS BREATH has seen his lofty reputation taken a dent or two since winning the Supreme Trial at Ascot in December. He was subsequently downed by Southfield Stone at Kempton, before seventh to Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival, when racing too keenly. This extra half a mile and a less stiff track should suit him perfectly.
Owners Paul and Claire Rooney decided to give Cheltenham a miss, so ONE FOR ROSIE comes here a little fresher, having been last seen chasing home Third Wind in a Grade 3 novices’ handicap over today’s trip at Sandown on his handicap debut. The handicapper has put the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained 6yo up 5lb to a mark of 143, but he holds place claims at least.
CHOSEN MATE won a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Naas and makes his handicap bow off a mark of 148, which looks a little on the stiff side for one so inexperienced. However, Gordon Elliott’s runner will be ideally suited being held up off what should be a steady pace and he remains interesting.
UMBRIGADO won with plenty to spare at Exeter in a modest novices’ hurdle, and the handicapper is taking no chances, allotting him a mark of 142 for this handicap debut.
3.00pm – DOOM BAR MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 1)
Key Trends
5 of the last 12 favourites were successful
11 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting market
6 of the last 12 winners had won on their previous start
9 of the last 12 winners were rated 144 or higher>
7 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1-3 race
Analysis
LALOR bids to redeem his reputation following two disappointing efforts on unsuitably soft ground in the Henry VIII at Sandown and when pulled up in the Arkle at Cheltenham. He won the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Chase at this meeting last year and better ground will put Kaley Woollacott’s 7yo in a better light.
In what looks a cracking renewal, his six rivals include US AND THEM, who was 13-lengths runner-up to Duc Des Genievres in the Arkle – his fourth consecutive runner-up effort – and Arkle fourth and fifth CLONDAW CASTLE and KNOCKNANUSS.
ORNUA fell at the sixth in the Arkle, but Henry De Bromhead’s 8yo is usually an excellent jumper and this course should help the Henry VIII runner-up.
DESTRIER cruised home to land a five-runner Ayr novices’ chase in January, having previously beaten four subsequent chase winners on his chasing debut at Southwell. This is a big class kike, however.
CAID DU LIN, runner-up in a four-runner novice event at Ascot last week, completes the line-up.
3.40pm – RYANAIR STAYERS HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE LIVERPOOL HURDLE) (Grade 1)
Key Trends
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 159 or higher
7 of the last 12 favourites were successful
7 of the last 12 winners won their previous race
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6yo and 8yo
10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1 race
Analysis
This is a strong renewal of the extended 3m Grade 1 event, with the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle winner, Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up, Irish Champion Hurdler winner and Coral Cup hero among the 15-runner line-up.
APPLE’S JADE sets the standard with a trio of Grade 1 victories this season, which included the Christmas Hurdle and the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Sixth in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, connections should be applauded for taking on the boys when she could have taken the easier option of the Mares’ Hurdle.
Unable to secure an early lead, she did not produce her best at Cheltenham – not for the first time – and this track is likely to play to her obvious strengths.
SAM SPINNER has run a couple of solid races in defeat to Paisley Park this term, notably in the Cleeve Hurdle and in the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle with a battling runner-up effort.
Third in this race when favourite last season, he again holds a leading chance, especially if Gordon Elliott’s mare does not fire.
IF THE CAP FITS was a decent third in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton to Verdana Blue, and was runner-up to Vision Des Flos in the Game Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on his last run. Harry Fry decided to bypass Cheltenham for this race, and with four wins and two runner-up efforts from seven runs over hurdles, he is admirably consistent and not without hope.
ROKSANA produced a career-best when landing the Grade 1 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, largely in part due to the last-flight fall of Benie Des Dieux. She has been placed in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over 3m at Aintree last April and had only raced once before this term ahead of her Cheltenham victory, so comes here relatively fresh.
WILLIAM HENRY hails for the Nicky Henderson stable that has won this race twice in the last five years. He powered home from an unpromising position to win the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last month, having benefitted from wind surgery and trying this track for the first time, this lightly-raced 9yo may have another big race in him.
WHOLESTONE, fifth in the Stayers’ Hurdle, Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle winner UNOWHATIMEANHARRY and WEST APPROACH, runner-up in the Cleve Hurdle to Paisley Park, are others to consider.
4.20pm – HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3)
Key Trends
2 of the last 10 favourites were successful
3 of the last 9 winners were trained by Philip Hobbs
4 of the last 9 winners were ridden by Richard Johnson
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 9lb or more
6 of the last 10 winners had a double-figure Starting Price
Analysis
A maximum 18 runners line up for this competitive handicap chase, where MISTER MALARKEY, who was a decent fourth to Topofthegame in the Grade 1 RSA Chase at Cheltenham, reverts to handicap company. He last scored in this sphere at Newbury in January, off a mark of 130, but such is the progression from Colin Tizzard’s runner that the 6yo now goes off 147. Winner of the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot in between, he is a dour stayer and this 3m1f might just be a little too sharp with this weight.
DEBECE comes in to this on the back of two novice chase wins at Newcastle and Catterick. He was third in the Grade 1 Sefton novices’ Hurdle here two years ago and fourth in the Grade Gaskells Handicap urdle here last year, so clearly likes this track.
KILDISART ran well to be fourth in the JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham and gave the impression that he would be suited by a stamina test, so should improve for this 3m1f trip and he rates a leading contender.
TOUCH KICK, a winner over 2m7f at Taunton in February, travelled well until making a mistake two out in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at Cheltenham, eventually finishing ninth of 23. He remains competitive off a mark of 133.
AMAULINO won the Ulster National at Downpatrick last time on a surface ideally softer than he would relish. He is a fast-improving 6yo and his mark of 130 may be exploitable, although this drop in trip might not play entirely to his strengths.
5.15pm – RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3)
Key Trends
9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 9yo and 11yo
26 of the last 27 winners ran no more than 55 days ago
25 of the last 27 winners had won over 3m+ over fences
21 of the last 27 winners carried 10st 12lb or less
16 of the last 27 winners finished in the top four on their previous run
15 of the last 27 renewals saw the favourite placed
26 of the last 27 winners were rated 137 or higher
9 of the last 27 winners ran at Cheltenham on their previous run
Analysis
Dual Grand National-winning jockey and three-time champion Richard Dunwoody has already given his thoughts on the National, which you can read here.
ANIBALE FLY finished off his race really well when runner-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Fourth in the National last season after a Gold Cup third, he has had just three weeks to get over his exertions (as opposed to four weeks last year) and with 11st 10lb this time, it is hard to see him bettering that.
VALTOR was bought from France with this race in mind last November, but after winning with ease at Ascot in December, he was pulled up at Cheltenham in January after hanging and jumping to the right. A left-handed track might not suit him and his jumping was sketchy.
TIGER ROLL, last year’s winner, is back for more after claiming a fourth Cheltenham Festival victory. His Cross Country success was a fine effort, but he has struggled under big weights before, and carries 11st 5lb this time, when having shouldered 10st 13lb to a narrow victory last year. He is short enough in the betting at present, but still has a fine chance of becoming the first horse since Red Rum to win back-to-back renewals.
OUTLANDER is a class act, having won three Grade 1 chases, but he has been below par this season. Any rain would help his chance.
DON POLI had dropped to 10lb below his peak rating after not recapturing his old form, which included a third in the Gold Cup three years ago, following his return from 22 months on the sidelines with a tendon injury. While a revival is possible, his odds reflect his chance.
GO CONQUER is one of those who may stay out of trouble, since he is a relentless front-runner. He landed the Yorkshire Chase in January, but is not certain to stay the 4m2f trip.
MALA BEACH has plenty going for him. He won the Troytown in last 2017, the last time he was tried in a handicap and has been lightly raced since. This race has been the plan for some time and while his rating looks stiff, any rain will help his chance.
MINELLA ROCCO has plenty of stamina. He won the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016 and finished second in the Gold Cup two years ago. However, he has suffered wind problems and was pulled up at the Festival last month. That said, his rating has dropped 11lb, so if returning to form, he holds a fair chance. It is a big ‘if’ tough.
LAKE VIEW LAD won both the Rehearsal Chase and the Rowland Meyrick, before staying on third in the Ultima at Cheltenham. He runs off the same mark here and this extra mile should be right up his street. Has a big chance.
PLEASANT COMPANY stormed home last year, just failing to catch Tiger Rolland meets that rival on 2lb better terms this time. He is on a career-high rating at the age of 11, but knows his way around and has place claims again.
BALLYOPTIC has bags of stamina and was unlucky in last year’s Scottish National. He fell when trying these fences for the first time in December, but is fairly well weighted on previous form and the ground is better than he encountered here last time which should help his jumping.
DOUNIKOS looked in need of a trip such as this when staying on well to win over 3m4f at Punchestown, but lacks experience of these fences and is up half a stone to 11st for his last win. Could be the main contender from Gordon Elliott’s yard outside of Tiger Roll.
RATHVINDEN is a leading player and 8lb well in, following his win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Punchestown. He looked a National horse when staying on well over 4m at Cheltenham last season, but has just had one run over fences since his novice season and may lack the experience for this.
ONE FOR ARTHUR won the 2017 Grand National impressively, but a tendon injury sidelined him for a year and he has managed to unseat his rider in two starts since. However, he was running a big race last time, and connections were pleased with a schooling session at Carlisle recently. He is fairly weighted at 10st 11lb if he puts in a clear round.
ROCK THE KASBAH will not have appreciated any rain, but has a chance on his decent Whitbread second at Sandown last April. He won at Cheltenham in November and is 4lb higher at 10st 13lb, which gives him a fighting chance. With the champion jockey Richard Johnson looking for a first win in the National, his chance appears to hold plenty of plusses.
WARRIORS TALE may lack the stamina for this, especially with the recent rain.
REAGAL ENCORE was a staying-on eighth in the 2017 National and has had a light campaign. He could be one for the each-way bettors, as he has always looked a National type.
MAGIC OF LIGHT has improved this season but she has made a few jumping errors and has yet to prove she has the stamina for this.
A TOI PHIL has won eight times, but all have come below three miles, so the same sentiments apply.
JURY DUTY won the American Grand National, which is run over hurdles, in New Jersey in October. He beat stablemate Mala Beach at Down Royal and is 6lb well in on that run, but whether he can stay this trip is open to argument.
NOBLE ENDEAVOR has had just two runs in the past two years owing to injury. He did win a decent staying contest at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting on 2016 and if he bounces back to that sort of form, he could play a part. That is asking a lot, however.
MONBEG NOTORIOUS was an easy winner of the Thyestes last season, but has shot up the weights as a result and has shown limited form in four subsequent handicaps.
RAMSES DE TEILLEE was second in the Welsh National, which puts him in with a fighting chance if repeating that. This may come a year too soon for him, since he is only a 7yo.
TEA FOR TWO beat Cue Card in the Aintree Bowl in 2017 and if returning to that sort of form, would appear to have a decent chance with just 10st 9lb on his back. He showed up well until unseating in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last month.
STEP BACK won the Whitbread last season but has been well held in two runs this winter. He is not the biggest and may not like this left-handed track.
ULTRAGOLD has a great record over these fences, having won the Topham twice and been placed in the Grand Sefton and Becher chase. He is 11yo now and possibly also lacks the stamina for this.
BLOW BY BLOW has yet to really fire in his novice season, having previously won a Grade 1 bumper and when winning over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival last year. Plenty of question marks.
UP FOR REVIEW has had just seven runs over fences, but this 10yo was a fine third in the Thystes on is first run back for eight months and is not without hope on the strength of that, if overcoming inexperience.
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT has been beaten a head or less in three races over the past two seasons and if he does not take a keen hold and takes to these fences, he could be in the mix, as he has plenty of ability.
VIEUX LION ROUGE has finished seventh, sixth and ninth in this in the last three years. Dropped 4lb, it might help him see out this trip, but he has yet to convince. The stable has been going okay, however.
VALSEUR LIDO has plenty of decent form, and should have won the Irish Gold Cup but for unseating at the last in 2016.He is 12lb lower than when going nicely at the fourth last in last year’s National, only to tire. Any rain would be against him, but he has plenty of talent.
VINTAGE CLOUDS is a dour stayer, who was fourth in last year’s Welsh National and third in the Scottish version at Ayr. A fair second at the Cheltenham Festival after a wind operation and is 5lb well in on that run, so expect him to be getting into it late if he gets into a rhythm.
GENERAL PRINCIPLE won last season’s Irish National and Thursday’s rain has helped his chance. Should go well off 10st 4lb.
LIVELOVELAUGH Lacks experience with just three runs in novice company and WALK IN THE MILL holds far better claims. He produced a career best when winning the Becher Chase in December and after a fair 7lb rise, has done okay in a couple of subsequent hurdles race. A leading contender.
FOLSOM BLUE is 12yo now and has finished twice fourth and also fifth in the Irish National. It is a tall order to see him winning, but he should relish these fences and with 10st 4lb on his back, may give a few punters a big run for their money.
CAPTAIN REDBEARD is not the most assured jumper and is readily overlooked, while BLESS THE WINGS is 14yo and is looking to become the oldest winner since 1853.
JOE FARRELL, who won last season’s Scottish National, was sidelined with an injury for much of this season, but his belated return saw him have a couple of spins over hurdles in March and he should be fit enough. He is a sound jumper and is expected to go well off 10st 2lb.
JUST A PAR, winner of the Whitbread in 2015 and the Greatwood Gold Cup in 2017, missed 18 months off and has not been in the same form. He may struggle.
6.20pm – PINSENT MASONS HANDICAP HURDLE (CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ AND AMATUER RIDERS’ RACE)
Key Trends
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 5lb or more
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo
8 of the last 10 winners had a double-figure Starting Price
1 of the last 10 winners was a favourite/joint-favourite
Analysis
No less than 22 runners line up for this finale over an extended 2m. LORD YEATS, a winner last time at Hexham, sets a fair standard. He has his sights raised here, but he was a Lusted winner of the Flat and was runner-up to Orders Of St George in a Group 3 last year.
WEST TO THE BRIDGE landed a minor Bangor novices hurdle last month and goes well for William Marshall, so has to be on the shortlist.
SCHEU TIME travelled well in defeat at Mussleburgh last time, but did not find a lot. He is reunited with Jonjo O’Neill Jr, which is a major plus in a race of this nature.
LOCKER ROOM TALK was an easy winner under today’s pilot Jack Savage at Huntington last time and merits plenty of respect.
CHIEF JUSTICE, THISTIMENEXTYEAR and FLASHING GLANCE are all in the mix for this open contest.
