12 Jun 2019
1.45pm – MERSEYRAIL HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)
Key Trends
0 of the last 12 favourites have won
1 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting
0 of the last 12 winners had at least one run in a Grade 1-3 contest
3 of the last 12 winners won their previous race
8 of the last 12 winners were aged either 5yo or 6yo
Analysis
No less than 22 face the starter for this 2m4f handicap hurdle, where BRIO CONTI is expected to come in for plenty of support following his decent fourth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. He looked the most likely winner turning for home but faded in the last furlong. This drop in trip and a flatter track should suit, despite a 2lb rise.
CANARDIER was only one place and half a length behind Brio Conti, and is 1lb better off with that rival this time. He should also strip fitter, as that was his first run since winning a novice over the same 2m5f trip at Cheltenham in October. Similarly, KNIGHT IN DUBAI (13th, beaten just over 11 lengths) is likely to improve, as that was his first run for 73 days.
STERNRUBIN takes a step up in trip, after being beaten nine lengths by Ch’tibello in the County Hurdle, having raced prominently. Twice a winner over fences this season, he is as game as they come and was placed in a conditionals’ handicap at this meeting last season.
BRECON HILL takes a step down in class, having finished fourth to Southfield Stone in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton. Running off a mark of 132, he does not look badly treated for this handicap debut.
TEDHAM has chased home some decent types in novice hurdles and got off the mark on his switch to handicaps with a decisive success at Wincanton last time. Jonjo O’Neill’s runner must always be respected in handicaps and the 6lb rise may not be enough to anchor the improving 5yo.
ESPRIT DU LARGE is the only other last-time-out winner in the field. Not beaten far in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, he gained compensation with a 10-length romp in an extended 2m3f novice event at Hereford last month. The Evan Williams-trained 5yo may have got in lightly off a mark of 132 for this handicap debut and has each-way claims.
2.20pm – TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1)
Key Trends
10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 133 or higher
8 of the last 12 winners were either won or had been placed on their previous outing
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5yo or 6yo
5 of the last 9 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
3 of the last 12 winners were favourites
6 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting
Analysis
A weak renewal of this extended 2m event, with only three of the eight runners from the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham lining up.
ITCHY FEET did the best of that trio, finishing five lengths third to Klassical Dream. He made up plenty of ground from the back, not having had the best pitch from a standing start. He may have needed the run, as he was having his first outing since finishing second at Cheltenham in November. It was reported afterwards that he bled from the nose, but not having previously encountered soft ground before, the Olly Murphy-trained 5yo handled it well.
Also a little flat-footed at the start, FELIX DESJY was unable to make the running in the Supreme, as he had done previously. He gave the winner plenty to think about turning for home and only faded into fifth late on. Gordon Elliott’s inmate would appear to hold decent claims at a fair price.
ARAMON won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas and the Willie Mullins-trained 6yo was well supported in the Supreme. However, the soft ground was against him and he labored up the hill to finish sixth. He is better than that and was only touched off by Klassical Dream on his previous run at Leopardstown. It would be no surprise to see him bounce back.
Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner five times in the last nine years and he relies upon PRECIOUS CARGO, who has won two novice hurdles since joining him from Lucinda Russell. He barely came out of a canter to score at Sandown when racing a little less keenly than he had when scoring at Kempton. His hurdling is accurate, but this is a big class jump.
SOUTHFIELD STONE had the highly-rated Angels Breath behind when landing the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton, having previously finished third in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January. While the pace was muddling, the Paul Nicholls-trained 6yo still broke the Kempton course record.
WINSTON C completed a hat-trick when justifying favouritism at Kelso last time and he deserves a crack at this lofty company, while SOFIA’S ROCK, placed in a Group 3 and rated at 100 at his peak on the Flat with Mark Johnston, does not look out of place in this either, given that he slammed his rivals in a Ludlow novice event last time.
2.50pm – MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 1)
Key Trends
10 of the last 12 winners were rated 148 or higher
6 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites were successful
8 of the last 12 winners were aged either 6yo or 7yo
10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1-3
10 of the last 12 winners had at least two previous runs over 3m or further
0 of the last 12 winners had previously won at Aintree
Analysis
This 3m1f contest has an impressive roll of honour, with the likes of Silviniaco Conti, Native River and Mite Bite having taken the spoils in recent years. This looks a fairly decent renewal with both the winner of the RSA Novices’ Chase and runner-up in the JLT Novices’ Chase among the field of seven.
While last month’s RSA was run at just a steady gallop before turning into something of a sprint, the form looks solid, and the imposing TOPOFTHEGAME came out on top after putting in a fine round of jumping. The Paul Nicholls-trained 7yo looked a star in breaking his chasing duck, having previously thrown away victory in the Kauto Star Chase in December. An extra half-furlong should hinder what appears to be a strong chance of victory.
It has been a largely disappointing season for Colin Tizzard, with several of his horses laid low, so it would be a tonic if LOSTINTRANSLATION made up for narrow defeats at the hands of Defi Du Seuil in both the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and the 2m4f JLT at Cheltenham. He has always looked more of a three-mile prospect and gets his first taste at that sort of trip. It would be no shock to see him land this valuable prize.
CHRIS’S DREAM, one of four last-time-out winners in the field, took a 3m Grade 2 novices’ chase at Navan last time, jumping impeccably, and is likely to be the one to pick up the pieces should either of the big two fluff their lines.
MR WHIPPED scored at Haydock over an extended 2m4f in heavy ground on only his second try over fences. He has abundant class and this step up in trip should put less pressure on his jumping, which was not fluent at times. He is still only a 6yo, so time is on his side and he should improve in Nicky Henderson’s care.
TOP VILLE BEN was one of the outsiders in the RSA and fell at the sixth when prominent. He bounced back to win at Wetherby, but has plenty still to find at this level.
DROVERS LANE is an interesting contender. A strong-travelling sixth in the RSA on his first run since wind surgery and his first run for 88 days, he may have found the heavy ground a little too taxing and may be a different proposition this time. He has won over 3m1f before.
CRUICIAL ROLE was a little disappointing when well held by Beware The Bear in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham and it would be a big surprise if he landed this.
3.25pm – JLT CHASE (REGISTERED AT THE MELLING CHASE) (Grade 1)
Key Trends
10 of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher
9 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting
3 of the last 12 winners won their previous start
11 of the last 12 winners had at least eight previous chase starts
11 of the last 12 winners had at least one win in the same season
8 of the last 12 winners were aged either 8yo or 9yo
Analysis
This does not look a particularly strong renewal of the 2m4f event, but among the seven who line up are two former winners of this race and a triple Group 1-winning chaser.
POLITOLOGUE is back to defend his crown, having scored in a thrilling finish last year. Fourth in both the King George and in the Ascot Chase, he bounced back well at Cheltenham to run Altior to a length and three-quarters in the Champion Chase last month. He is bidding for a third Grade 1 success of his career for Paul Nicholls.
MIN already has three top-level chase wins to his name and would have four to his name had he not been denied by a head in last year’s renewal. He has been in excellent form this winter, winning a pair of Grade 1s at Punchestown and Leopardstown, before failing to settle and jumping without much authority when fifth in the Champion Chase. He is better than that showing and the Willie Mullins-trained 8yo should run a big race.
WAITING PATIENTLY had won his previous six chases before unseating in the King George following a 312-day break. Made favourite for the Ascot Chase, he chased home Cyrname and was a little disappointing, despite giving the impression he still needed the run. After bypassing Cheltenham, he is a relatively fresh horse, having had just two runs this term.
HELL’S KITCHEN is a quirky individual, who has the class to win a big race if he puts it all in. He ran a fine fourth in the Champion Chase, having previously scored in a 2m4f handicap at Ascot before Christmas. Two wins from eight chase starts hardly inspires too much confidence, however.
TOP NOTCH goes back over fences, having had three runs over hurdles, the last of which saw him fold tamely in the Stayers’ Hurdle when beaten a long way by Paisley Park. His last run over fences was a winning effort, taking an extended 2m6f Grade 2 at Sandown last April. Nicky Henderson’s 8yo has won eight of his 12 starts over fences and is very capable on his day.
GOD’S OWN is another previous winner of this race, having landed the spoils three seasons ago. Now aged 11, he did well to win the Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2) at Exeter in November, but having been pulled up in the Champion Chase, one wonders if trainer Tom George is rolling the dice a bit.
WOODLAND OPERA looked in need of the run when, following a 135-day break, he was last of five in a 2m Navan Grade 2 last month. He may be better for the likely quicker ground, however.
4.05pm – RANDOX HEALTH TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3)
Key Trends
3 of the last 6 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
4 of the last 12 winners were trained by Peter Bowen
9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 8yo and 11yo
1 of the last 12 favourites were successful
0 of the last 12 Topham winners won their previous race
3 of the last 12 winners had won at least one Grade 1-3 race
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 130 or higher
Analysis
A maximum field of 30 runners for the 2m5f Topham, run over the Grand National fences, which makes this another minefield for punters.
CALL IT MAGIC was a fine fourth in the Becher Chase here in December and showed his well-being when runner-up in a decent small-field contest at Fairyhouse. He was seventh in the Irish National last season off a mark of 139 and would appear to hold a decent chance of his current mark of 136.
BALLYHILL won a 2m4f handicap here over the Mildmay fences in December and has been consistent in three defeats subsequently, latterly having little chance when coming up against King George winner Clan Des Obeaux in the Denman Chase at Ascot. This is more his level.
JANIKA has finished runner-up on three separate occasions since joining Nicky Henderson, all as favourite. The last two defeats have come at the hands of the useful Siruh Du Lac, who had the benefit of less weight in the Grade 3 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month. Compensation can’t be too long in coming.
ADRIEN DU PONT did not have the race run to suit when chasing home Walt in a 3m Grade at Kempton. That was a fine run off a mark of 151, as he came from well off the pace to get involved. He runs off the same mark here and should be on the shortlist.
FLYING ANGEL (fifth), ACTIVAL (sixth) and O O SEVEN (12th) were all long odds in the Ultima at Cheltenham and all run fair races, but each-way interest may centre on PEREGRINE RUN, who should strip fitter for his Thurles runner-up effort, his first run after a 140-day break, and SAN BENEDETO, who landed a seventh chase victory when scoring at Newbury last month.
He has always been something of a spring horse and was rated at 158 at his peak. His current mark of 154 is fair, however.
4.40pm – DOOM BAR SEFRON NOVICES’ HURDLE (Grade 1)
Key Trends
4 of the last 12 winners won their previous start
9 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
2 of the last 12 favourites were successfu
11 of the last 12 winners were aged either 6yo or 7yo
7 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run over 3m+
9 of the last 12 winners had at least three runs over hurdles
11 of the last 12 winners had won a race that season
0 of the last 12 winners had run previously at Aintree
Analysis
This appears to be a decent renewal of the extended 3m Grade 1, won in recent seasons by the likes of the high-class Thistlecrack and Santini
DALLAS DES PICTONS looked all over the winner of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, but the combination of a 10lb hike for his win at Leopardstown and being held on to a little too long, saw Early Doors beat him. He did pull nicely clear of the remainder, however, and Gordon Elliott’s fast-improving 6yo is sure to go close.
Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner of this race twice in the last five years and CHAMP flies the flag for the Seven Barrows yard this time. He had won all four previous starts before attempting to become the first 7yo to win the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. The fact that he was worn down by City Island after the last means he lost no caste in defeat and it would be no surprise should he gain compensation here.
EMITOM has been well campaigned by Warren Greatrex and he puts an unbeaten record on the line, having justified favouritism in his first three runs over hurdles. He overcame a double penalty, showing plenty of class at Newbury last time, and has plenty of potential. This is a step up in grade, but he would appear to have the ability to handle it.
LISNAGAR OSCAR slammed Ask Ben in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock before finding the ground plenty soft for him when a decent fifth to Minella Indo in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Better ground would help his already obvious chance.
ARDLETHEN has earned a step up in class, having comfortably taken two minor events at Uttoxeter, while DOWNTON GETAWAY probably achieved a little more when scoring by a head from Champagne Well in an extended 2m5f event at Ascot. His hurdling was far from fluent, but this step up in trip should see him in a better light.
5.15pm – WEATHERBYS RACING BANK STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (Grade 2)
Key Trends
5 of the last 8 winners had a rating of 123 or higher
9 f the last 12 winners were aged 4yo or 5yo
1 of the last 12 favourites were successful
5 of the last 12 winners scored on their previous run
9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 bumper runs
Analysis
No less than 15 face the judge for the concluding 2m1f bumper, with only MASTER DEBONAIR representing those who lined up in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.
Colin Tizzard’s 5yo has previously won over that course and distance, and was in the front rank a long way in the Grade 1, only to fade late and finish 12th. That was his first run since November and he may just have needed it, so could bounce back.
MCFABULOUS, seventh behind Master Debonair when favourite for that Listed bumper at Cheltenham in November, overcame a 104-day break to score very easily at Newbury. He looks the one to beat if in that sort of form and, being a half-brother to Waiting Patiently, he may well develop into a high-class novice hurdler next season.
SANTA ROSSA gave trainer Dermot McLaughlin his first Graded winner when taking a Grade 2 mares’ bumper at Leopardstown in February, and she looks a decent prospect. This looks a much tougher assignment, however.
DEWCUP looked an above-average winner of a Thurles bumper and should relish this track. He appears to have a gear change, too. BLACHILLSOFDAKOTA, beaten three lengths that day, subsequently franked the form when scoring at Limerick.
EBONY JEWEL had created a good impression on his Haydock debut in defeat and underlined his promise when scoring with authority at Ayr last month, with his rider looking around. He has plenty of ability and could be a useful prospect.
THEBANNERKINGREBEL has not run since being pulled up in last year’s Champion Bumper and after wind surgery, must overcome a 387-day lay-off, while MONTEGO GREY ran a solid race in defeat at Ascot last time, but is high enough on the betting for what he has actually achieved in two runs for Dan Skelton.
