19 Nov 2019
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Germany currently sit two points ahead of the rest of Group C after they leapfrogged the Netherlands at the weekend but will still want to lay down a marker on this respectable third-placed Northern Ireland side, who trail Holland by just three points.
The Germans’ three and four nil victories over Estonia and Belarus respectively has put them in the ascendency, though that was expected of them, and anything but maximum points this Tuesday will likely see them finish behind the Oranje either on points or on head-to-head goal difference.
Michael O’Neill’s charges have clung close to those European heavyweights, doing so by taking maximum points in both encounters with Belarus and Estonia, establishing a comfortable nine and 12-point gap over those two sides respectively.
However, Germany battled their way to a 2-0 win in Belfast courtesy of second half goals, while Northern Ireland have fallen short against the Dutch despite coming close.
They departed Rotterdam with nothing to show for their efforts, having initially made the breakthrough after 75 minutes before succumbing to late efforts.
The reverse fixture on Saturday then finished goalless, with captain Steven Davis blasting a penalty over the bar. That means the Green and White Army’s prospects of qualifying directly are gone, but they still have a chance through the play-offs.
Germany To Win To Nil
Germany are an impressive W24-D5-L1 across 30 competitive home matches since the start of qualifying for 2010 World Cup, with that sole defeat coming against the Netherlands just last month.
Meanwhile, the only draws they suffered came against Finland, Sweden, Ireland, as well as both France and the Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League.
Six of the last 10 of those saw them win to nil, which becomes six from seven when excluding elite sides France and Holland, and that could well be how this one finishes.
The hosts don’t lack for firepower having scored three times as many goals as their visitors during these qualifiers, while they also possess the best defensive record, as all six goals they’ve shipped were scored by the Netherlands.
Under 2.5 Goals
Interestingly, 35 teams have outscored Northern Ireland in the 2020 Euro qualifiers so far, but we still expect them to keep it tight. Eight of their 11 competitive trips since the beginning of their campaign for the 2018 World Cup have seen fewer than three strikes, while they only conceded more than once on three occasions.
They’ve went W4-D2-L5 from these fixtures, with their only victories coming against Azerbaijan, San Marino, Estonia and Belarus. If we exclude those sides, then they’ve managed just one goal from 630 minutes of football.
Those results include defeats without scoring against Norway and Austria (1-0), Bosnia and Germany (2-0), while they produced goalless stalemates with the Czech Republic and Switzerland.
They’ve proven extremely difficult to break down and so we’re hardly expecting this one to be a goal fest.
That’s even more likely seeing as Joachim Low may rotate his squad a little and that could well take them some time to get into the game.
Three of the four head-to-head meetings since 2016 have seen fewer than three goals, with Die Mannschaft winning all of them and conceding just once, so we like these two betting prospects.
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