12 Jun 2019
Tuesday, July 10 (7pm BST) - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg
There have been only eight nations who have won the World Cup and Belgium’s ‘Golden Generation’ seek to become the ninth.
It has not been an easy path for Roberto Martinez’s side, who were on the brink of elimination when 2-0 down in the second half of their Round of 16 clash with Japan. For a time, it looked like they would crash out in shocking fashion, just as they had done against Wales in the Euro 2016 quarter-finals.
However, Roberto Martinez saw his stock rise, masterminding a comeback by adding steel from the benc h in the form of Marouane Fellaini and Nacer Chadli, bit-part players for their respective clubs, but now on the verge of becoming national heroes.
A last-gasp 3-2 win over Japan was followed by a monumental – and deserved – 2-1 win over Brazil, which was not such a shock to those who read our preview, since we highlighted how Casemiro’s absence was not to be underestimated.
Kevin De Bruyne was handed a more advanced role which proved crucial in unlocking the Selacao and France will key in on the Manchester City midfielder. They will have to if they are to have a chance of repeating their 1998 triumph on home soil.
France have hardly set the tournament alight. Their talented squad was always expected to go deep into the knockout stages, having been drawn in a relatively soft group along with Australia, Peru and Denmark. Two wins and a soulless goalless draw against the Danes in the group stages posed more questions than answers.
Yet they did manage to look potential winners when knocking out a lacklustre Argentina, who still managed to score three goals against them. They also did not have to face injured Edinson Cavani as they defeated Uruguay 2-0 in the quarter-final.
The World Cup outright odds show France as the 2/1 favourite, with Belgium at 11/4.
Are France Vulnerable?
At times, France have looked vulnerable at the back and Belgium have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 10 matches. The France v Belgium odds are 15/4 that Belgium wins and there are over 2.5 goals scored in the game.
These teams know each other’s capabilities well, and adding a little more intrigue is the role of Martinez’s assistant Thierry Henry, a France legend and their record goalscorer, who may offer some insight.
With the likes of Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann and rising star Kylian Mbappe, France are not short of talent. They have won six of their last seven matches and the World Cup match odds tab France as 8/5 to beat Belgium in 90 minutes.
What is interesting is the way coach Didier Deschamps has been much-maligned, criticised for his style of play and tactical system, as he simply does not appear to have got the most out of this uber-talented squad.
Standing in France’s way is a side also packed with Premier League stars, with Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku thriving in Russia. Lukaku has an outside chance of catching England’s Harry Kane as top scorer at the tournament, having scored four times, and his World Cup Golden Boot odds are 8/1.
France, who seek to go one better than their Euro 2016 final loss to Portugal on home soil, will seek to exploit the absence of right-back Thomas Meunier, who is ruled out through suspension. The raw pace of Mbappe is tough to defend and he is 15/8 to score at any time and 12/1 to score two or more, as he did against Argentina.
There are key battles all over the field and in the eyes of many, this is the unofficial final, with the winners certainly expected to be the favourites for Sunday’s final.
Hazard is very hit and miss. He was almost anonymous against Japan when Martinez used a sledgehammer in Felliani to smash the emergency glass, yet he is still aerguably the biggest star left in the World Cup, following the departure of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Several Premier League clubs are likely to target France right-back Benjamin Pavard, whose form has been exceptional throughout the tournament, but Hazard will prove a major test.
Lukaku to score?
Lukaku, who has been directly involved in 20 goals in his last 13 games for Belgium, with three assists and 17 goals, will strike fear into a suspect France defence and is 7/5 to score at any time. But in France’s Hugo Lloris and opposite number Thibaut Courtois, we have two of the best goalkeepers in the world on show. Neither team to score in 90 minutes is available at 6/1
France receive a boost with the return of Blaise Matuidi following suspension and he is likely to replace Corentin Tolisso on the left flank. You have to fancy his chances against Chadli, who has been in and out of the relegated West Brom side, and Toby Alderweield.
Belgium managed to break quickly on Brazil, who missed Casimero, but they may not have such luck against N’Golo Kante, who does the work of two in breaking up play and pressing the ball. He will be instrumental should France get to the final and their odds to qualify are 8/11.
Key Stats:
Belgium have won their last 10 matches – they are 11/10 to reach the World Cup Final.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in eight of Belgium’s last nine games – it is 11/10 for over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game.
Three of the last four meetings between Belgium and France saw less than 2.5 goals scored. It is 4/9 that this will be the case again.
France striker Antoine Griezmann has scored seven goals in his last six knockout stage matches in tournaments – he is 5/1 to be the first scorer.
Eden Hazard has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 14 games for Belgium (eight goals and six assists) – he is 2/1 to score at any time and 12/1 to score two or more against France.
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