12 Jun 2019
The first of the Last 16 World Cup matches is fascinating, for France v Argentina pits two nations that have been below their best in their three group games against each other.
France and Denmark both needed a point to qualify from Group C and contrived to provide the worst game of the World Cup thus far with a predictable 0-0 draw, which even had the Russian neutrals in the crowd booing. What price the entente cordiale continues at next year’s Eurovision?
Didier Deschamps’ side topped the group with seven points, following wins over Peru and Australia, while Denmark were second after a win against Peru and a draw with Australia.
Argentina have reached the knockout stages by the skin of their teeth, with Marcos Rojo the unlikely scorer four minutes from time to beat Nigeria 2-1 and book their berth. It was their first win at these finals, having lost to Croatia and drawn with Iceland.
Is Messi’s brilliance enough?
Lionel Messi showed glimpses of brilliance – in particular with a first-half goal – and Javier Mascherano was solid at the back, but Argentina lack shape and leadership. It is questionable that they have the legs defensively to go any further in this tournament.
Yet there is a nagging doubt. While the Argentina players lack cohesion and look confused by the tactics of coach Jorge Sampaoli, they have experience.
Runners-up in 2014, Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria provide star power. They have had such a troubled, torturous qualification tournament and have now overcome more adversity in the group stages, that they could feel as though they have nothing to lose and can conquer anything.
Going through to the knockout stage for the fourth consecutive World Cup might not be enough to have punters racing to back them to win on the World Cup outright odds of 12/1, though.
Because age does matter, the years do count. The team selected against Nigeria had an average age of 30 years and 189 days – the oldest ever at a World Cup tournament.
Does Dechamps know his best side?
Those looking for trends will do well to note that when Argentina score first, they are unbeaten in their last 40 World Cup games (W35 D5) since 1958. They are 13/10 to score first against France.
Similarly blessed with attacking capability, France have failed to flow as they can in this tournament and while Deschamps made six chances for the Denmark game, it appears they still lack an identity.
N’Golo Kante should be, and probably is, the first name on the team sheet, and Paul Pogba has to play, but the manager has tried several midfield trios, with Steven N’Zonzi coming in against the Danes, having previously tried Blaise Matuidi, Corentin Tolisso, Thomas Lemar and Nabil Fekir.
With Kylian Mbappe up front, should he play Antoine Griezmann or Olivier Giroud alongside? What role should Florian Thauvin have? The biggest concern for this group is a lack of cohesion. Does Deschamps really know his best starting XI or is he just trying to keep too many players happy? So many questions.
Goals on the cards?
France’s scoring record has not been bad in recent times. Indeed, before being held scoreless by the Danes, they won 16 of the 20 matches in which they have scored since losing the Euro 2016 final to Portugal and they had found the net in 11 consecutive matches.
Since his debut in 2007, only Giroud (11) has been involved in more goals for France than Mbappe (10; 5 goals, 5 assists), so it is worth checking the first scorer and anytime scorer odds when they are available.
France and Argentina have met 11 times since 1930 and Argentina won six of those contests, with France winning two. Three meetings were drawn. Argentina won the only two meetings at the World Cup, but they have not met in serious competition since 1978.
Nine of those 11 contests yielded less than three goals, and it is 11/10 that both teams score, while it is 7/5 that there are over 2.5 goals in the game.
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