12 Jun 2019
The second semi-final of the inaugural UEFA Nations League takes place in Guimaraes, Portugal, on Thursday evening, as England take on the Netherlands for the right to meet either Portugal or Switzerland in Sunday’s final.
Genting Casino offers a comprehensive guide to the clash, complete with all the odds you need.
THE ROAD TO THE 2019 UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINAL
Not since 1966 has England won a major trophy, but the Genting Casino UEFA Nations League football odds would suggest that Gareth Southgate’s World Cup semi-finalists could finally end that barren spell.
England are currently priced at 15/8 second favourites behind Portugal (7/4) to win the tournament, which has been a major success, despite early scepticism.
The Three Lions had a tough road to reach the last four, finding themselves with just one point at the halfway stage in League A Group 4, after losing 2-1 at home to Spain. Yet gone was the fear and tentativeness under Southgate’s attacking policy, and England were soon on the front foot with a set of surprising results.
Travelling to Spain, England went 3-0 up by half-time in the return fixture, eventually winning 3-2, and a late goal from Harry Kane gave England a berth to the last four when avenging their World Cup semi-final exit, downing Croatia 2-1.
While England topped the group with seven points, World Cup runners-up Croatia were relegated to League B, which made victory all the more sweet.
England subsequently handed out thrashings to the Czech Republic (5-0 at home) and Montenegro (5-1 away) in their first two Euro 2020 qualifiers, so would appear to have plenty of momentum.
Having missed out on qualifying for the Euro 2016 Championship finals and the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the Netherlands were handed a tough group in the UEFA Nations League, facing Germany and World Cup winners France.
Their campaign got off to a bad start with a 2-1 reverse in Paris, but Ronald Koeman’s side gained a last-four place with a remarkable run, which saw them down Germany 3-0 and France 2-0 in their home games, with the cherry on the top coming in the final game in Germany. Down 2-0 with five minutes remaining, the Dutch staged a stunning comeback with goals in the 85th and 90th minutes to earn the point they required to top the group. That result relegated Germany to League B.
The Netherlands have subsequently beaten Belarus 4-0 at home in a Euro 2020 qualifier, but the Germans exacted revenge for their defeat in another Euro 2020 qualifier in Amsterdam. Koeman’s side again came from 2-0 down to level, only for Nico Schulz to fire a last-minute Germany winner.
Despite that reverse, the current Genting Casino football odds of 14/5 for the Netherlands to win the tournament might appear a little generous.
TOP TRENDS FOR NETHERLANDS v ENGLAND
England are 7/5 favourites to win the semi-final in normal time, despite the fact they have won just three of the last 17 meetings with the Dutch.
Their last meeting was in Amsterdam in March 2018 when Jesse Lingard’s 59th-minute strike earned Southgate’s side a 1-0 win in a friendly.
The last competitive game between these two nations occurred in the 1996 European Championships when two goals apiece from Alan Shearer and Teddy Sheringham gave England a 4-1 win. The Dutch won three and drew four of the seven games in between those defeats and Koeman’s side are 2/1 to beat England in normal time.
Four of the last seven clashes have ended in stalemate and the draw is on offer at odds of 11/5.
England have won six of their last seven (D1) since losing at home to Spain and have scored 19 goals in that span, their sole blank coming in a 0-0 behind-closed-doors draw in Croatia. England are 7/10 to win (draw no bet).
Goals invariably flow when these two nations meet. Both sides scored in seven of the last 11 meetings and it is 3/4 that this will be the case again.
Three of the last four meetings yielded three goals or more in total and the Genting Casino football odds are Evens that over 2.5 total goals will be scored in this clash.
The Netherlands’ penchant for slow starts might be worth exploring. They have fallen behind in seven of their last 10 games, including three of their last four, and England are 10/11 to score the first goal in Guimaraes.
TEAM NEWS
The timing of these finals is arguably a lot worse for England than for the Dutch. Seven of Southgate’s squad were involved in last weekend’s Champions League final, and while Koeman had to wait for Liverpool stars Virgil Van Dijk and Gini Wijnaldum, he at least has had plenty of time to work with the young starts from Ajax, who were desperately unlucky not to have faced Jurgen Klopp’s side in Madrid.
Quite how chucking away a 3-0 Champions League semi-final lead to Tottenham will affect the confidence of the likes of Matthijs de Ligt, Frenkie de Jong and Donny van de Beek is open to question, but the Dutch have an exciting, talented base to build upon.
England have more depth than they have had for many years. Harry Kane managed 90 minutes in the Champions League final, but was on the fringes throughout and Southgate may only risk him as an impact sub. Kane is 13/10 to score at any time against the Netherlands.
However, Southgate has other attacking options and a forward line of Raheem Sterling (2/1 to score at any time), Marcus Rashford (15/8 to grab a goal at any stage) and Jordan Sancho (3/1 to net) would strike fear in the hearts of any defence.
West Ham’s Declan Rice would like another opportunity to establish himself in a midfield holding role, and Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson is also knocking on the door, with Tottenham’s Dele Alli out of form and Harry Winks out of the squad.
England’s midfield is the concern against a Dutch side that can pass anyone to death. Match Koeman’s side in that area and England have enough firepower to open any defence.
The Dutch are sweating on the fitness of both Van Dijk and Wijnaldum. Van Dijk played 90 minutes of the Reds’ 2-0 win over Tottenham while Wijnaldum was substituted just past the hour, having faded.
Van Dijk is expected to start alongside Ajax captain Matthijs de Ligt in the heart of defence, with Jasper Cillessen playing in goal. Daley Blind and Jonny Dumfires are options at full-back. Frenkie de Jong will start in central midfield as he prepares for his move to Barcelona, with the 22-year-old set to join the La Liga champions for £65milion in the summer.
Expect Ajax team-mate Donny van de Beek to join him in a midfield three if Wijnaldum is not fit, while Ryan Babel and Memphis Depay will lead the line.
Depay has scored six goals in five appearances for his county and is 9/5 to score at any time and 5/1 to score the first goal.
HOW TO WATCH THE 2019 UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINAL LIVE
Netherlands v England will kick off at 7.45pm BST and the game is live on Sky Sports Football. You can also watch the game via NOW TV, which can be streamed through a computer or apps found on most smart TVs, phones or consoles. BBC Radio 5 Live will also broadcast the game live.
